The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Georgia, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina, and West Virginia held their downballot primaries on Tuesday, and you can find the results at the links for each state. We’ll have a comprehensive rundown in our next Digest.
Leading Off
● Governor-by-LD: Colorado Democrats took back the state Senate in 2018 after four years of GOP control and increased their lead in the state House. And as our new data, which was crunched for us by elections analyst Bill Coningsby, shows, Team Red will have a very difficult time flipping either chamber this fall.
First, a look at the numbers. Democrat Jared Polis was elected governor last cycle by defeating Republican Walker Stapleton 53-43, which was an improvement over Hillary Clinton's 48-43 victory against Donald Trump. Polis carried 41 House districts to Stapleton's 24, as well as 22 Senate seats to Stapleton's 13; we have mapped the upper chamber here. Just one constituency in each chamber backed Polis after supporting Trump, while no districts went in the opposite direction.
Campaign Action
Half of the Senate is up in 2020, and Republicans are going to have a very tough time netting the two seats they'd need to retake control. Team Red's best target this fall is SD-19, where Democrat Rachel Zenzinger unseated a GOP incumbent 48-46 as Clinton was prevailing 48-43 here. However, this suburban Denver seat backed Polis by a stronger 54-41 two years later. And after that, Republicans don't have any good pickup opportunities on the ballot this fall. Trump's second-best Democratic-held seat is the open SD-28, another suburban seat that went from 53-38 Clinton to 59-37 Polis.
There are two GOP-held Clinton seats, though, which are also located in the Denver area and where Democrats can go on the offensive. State Sen. Kevin Priola's SD-25 shifted from 47-45 Clinton to 50-45 Polis, while the open SD-27 moved from 49-42 Clinton to 53-44 Polis. There's also SD-08, where Republican incumbent Robert Rankin is defending a western Colorado constituency that went from 48-44 Trump to 51-46 Polis.
We'll turn to the state House, where Democrats hold a wide 41-24 lead. Team Blue has won a majority in the chamber ever since the current map went into effect in 2012, including during the 2014 GOP wave, so it's very unlikely that Republicans will be able to win this time. One Republican represents a Clinton/Polis seat, while Democrats also hold a single Trump/Stapleton district. The one Trump/Polis seat is held by Democratic incumbent Daneya Esgar, whose HD-46 shifted from 46.1-45.8 Trump to 51-44 Polis.
We'll also take a quick look at the state's seven congressional districts. GOP Rep. Scott Tipton's 3rd District moved from 52-40 Trump to 50-46 Stapleton, and it could be a potential Democratic target this fall. The 6th District, which is held by freshman Democratic Rep. Jason Crow, went from 50-41 Clinton to 54-42 Polis, and Republicans aren't making a serious play for it this cycle.
P.S. You can find our master list of statewide election results by congressional and legislative district here, which we'll be updating as we add new states. Additionally, you can find all our data from 2018 and past cycles here.
Election Changes
Please bookmark our litigation tracker for a complete compilation of the latest developments in every lawsuit regarding changes to election and voting procedures.
● Tennessee: The ACLU-backed plaintiffs suing Tennessee to allow anyone to vote by mail without needing an excuse are now asking a state court to hold the Republican-run state in contempt of court for failing to properly comply with last week's ruling that had enabled no-excuse absentee voting while the pandemic is ongoing.
The plaintiffs note how state election coordinator Mark Goins, who is one of the defendants, emailed local officials after the ruling and told them to "hold off" on sending out absentee applications until Tennessee could change its form or a court stayed the ruling, but the ruling is in full effect since no stay was issued. They argue that GOP officials violated the court order by instead creating a new category on the application form that includes no defined standard for how voters "determine[...] it is impossible or unreasonable to vote in person" and thus qualify for mail voting. The plaintiffs instead want all applicants treated the same regardless of whether they're citing COVID-19 as their reason.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Just how dire does Alabama's July 14 GOP primary look for former Attorney General Jeff Sessions? His new poll from OnMessage Inc. shows Sessions trailing former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville 49-43. Back in mid-March, OnMessage found Sessions tied with Tuberville 45-45 in the contest to reclaim his old Senate seat from Democratic incumbent Doug Jones: Trump endorsed Tuberville soon after that survey was finished.
As bad as these new results are for Sessions, they're not nearly as bad as what another Republican pollster, Cygnal, found in mid-May. That survey, which was not done for any client, gave Tuberville a wide 55-32 lead just days before Trump declared that Sessions was not "mentally qualified" to be attorney general.
● AZ-Sen: The NRSC is out with a second TV spot tying former astronaut Mark Kelly's business to Chinese companies, complete with CGI of someone drifting through space in a suit. We recently took a look at the background for this xenophobic and quite tenuous argument.
● IA-Sen: On behalf of Daily Kos, Civiqs is out with a survey that gives Democrat Theresa Greenfield a 48-45 lead over GOP Sen. Joni Ernst as Donald Trump and Joe Biden are deadlocked in Iowa 46-46. A recent survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling for Greenfield's allies at EMILY's List showed the Democrat ahead by a similar 45-43 as Trump led 48-47.
Perhaps the most ominous sign for the GOP is the presidential numbers. Donald Trump carried Iowa by a decisive 51-42 margin four years ago, and while Democrats gained ground here in 2018, Trump still looked like the favorite to take the state again. If Trump ends up struggling to win the Hawkeye State's six electoral votes, though, Ernst also could have problems. Civiqs gives Ernst a bad 39-52 favorable rating compared to Greenfield's 39-31 score, so Ernst may struggle to take over enough crossover voters to survive a Trump defeat.
However, the NRSC is now up with its first TV ad here as it attempts to drive Greenfield's numbers down early. The opening commercial argues that Greenfield ran a "failed homebuilding business" that "folded," though the NRSC unsurprisingly doesn't note that her company's travails occurred in the midst of the Great Recession.
● KS-Sen: The anti-tax Club for Growth is out with another commercial ripping its old adversary, Rep. Roger Marshall, ahead of the August GOP primary. The ad is part of an ongoing $2 million buy against the congressman.
The narrator declares, "In the last election, he handed out $16,000 to anti-Trump Republicans running for Congress. How did Never Trump politicians like Mitt Romney get away with attacking Trump? They have friends like Roger Marshall." Donald Trump actually endorsed Romney last cycle, a fact that Trump and his allies have been all too happy to forget about.
● KY-Sen: State Rep. Charles Booker is out with his first TV spot for the June 23 Democratic primary, which his team says is running for one week for $400,000. Booker's team also reports that they've raised $700,000 during the first eight days of June for his bid against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Booker tells the audience that "in this crisis, Kentucky needs a real Democrat to take on Mitch McConnell. Someone who will fight to guarantee health care and living wages for all, and not help Trump just get his way." This portion of the ad also shows footage of Booker, who would be Kentucky's first black senator, addressing a protest against the killing of Louisville resident Breonna Taylor and other African Americans by police.
The spot goes on to show a clip of Marine veteran Amy McGrath, who is backed by the DSCC, saying that her message is "the things that Kentuckians voted for Trump for are not being done." Booker responds, "Democrats only win by mobilizing young and old, black, brown and white, fighting for real change. And together, that's exactly what we'll do."
Meanwhile, U.S. Term Limits is out with a survey from RMG Group, which is run by pollster Scott Rasmussen, that shows McGrath leading McConnell 41-40; the sample also favors Donald Trump 53-36. The release did not include numbers testing Booker against McConnell.
● MA-Sen: Massachusetts recently released its list of candidates for the Sept. 1 primary. While anyone who wanted to run in this year's primaries needed to file a month ago, there's a reason we didn't have an official list of contenders until now: The state has an unusual rule that requires candidates to file on May 5 with local election officials and again on June 2 with the secretary of the commonwealth.
The Senate Democratic primary, which we recently took a look at in greater detail, is a duel between incumbent Ed Markey and Rep. Joe Kennedy III. The better-funded Kennedy began running ads here in early May, while Markey has not yet gone on the air. Whoever wins in September should have no trouble in the general election in this reliably blue state.
● ME-Sen: While Everytown for Gun Safety backed GOP Sen. Susan Collins in 2014, the well-funded super PAC announced Tuesday that it was supporting Democratic state House Speaker Sara Gideon this year.
● NC-Sen: GOP Sen. Thom Tillis is out with his second general election TV spot, which the National Journal's Madelaine Pisani reports is backed by a $510,000 TV and digital buy. Tillis talks about his time working as a short-order cook and earning his degree at night before bemoaning the state of the economy. "My job," Tillis concludes, "is fighting for your job, and that's exactly what I'll do."
Gubernatorial
● NH-Gov: Former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand announced this week that he was endorsing state Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes in the September Democratic primary rather than running himself. New Hampshire's filing deadline is on Friday, so the field to take on GOP Gov. Chris Sununu will be set soon.
House
● FL-15: Lakeland City Commissioner Scott Franklin is out with his first TV spots ahead of his August primary against Republican Rep. Ross Spano. Neither ad mentions Spano, who is under investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice for allegedly violating campaign finance laws in 2018.
The first commercial touts Franklin's Navy career and conservatism and pledges he'll "fight radical socialists … reckless spending … and lawless liberals." The second spot features Franklin giving lip service to his support for "peaceful protests" before he declares, "Violence, vandalism, looting and lawlessness … those aren't protests; they are crimes. Now liberals are attacking President Trump simply for saying so." Franklin, unsurprisingly, never so much as alludes to police brutality.
● MA-01: Longtime Rep. Richard Neal faces a Democratic primary challenge from Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse in this safely blue seat in western Massachusetts.
The 31-year-old Morse, who was born the same year that the incumbent was first elected, has argued that Neal has been slow to use his powerful position as chair of the House Ways and Means Committee to combat the Trump administration. Morse has also portrayed Neal as too close to special interests while being "largely silent on the issues that matter most." Neal ended March with a massive $4.5 million to $140,000 cash-on-hand lead.
● MA-04: Nine Democrats are competing in a very expensive race to succeed Senate candidate Joe Kennedy in a safely blue seat that stretches from Brookline and Newton in the Boston area south to Bristol County.
Newton City Councilor Jake Auchincloss, a Marine veteran who has the support of VoteVets, has led the field in fundraising so far. Auchincloss, who hails from a prominent Boston-area family, ended March with a $951,000 to $783,000 cash-on-hand lead over City Year co-founder Alan Khazei, who unsuccessfully ran for the Senate a decade ago. Fellow Newton City Councilor Becky Walker Grossman and Jesse Mermell, the former head of the Alliance for Business Leadership, were further back with $403,000 and $342,000 on-hand, respectively.
A few other contenders are also in the running. Dave Cavell, who most recently served as a senior adviser to Attorney General Maura Healey, had $186,000 to spend, while attorney Ben Sigel had $128,000 on-hand. Former Wall Street regulator Ihssane Leckey, who was challenging Kennedy before he retired, had just $54,000 available, while businessman Chris Zannetos and public health expert Natalia Linos did not report having anything to spend.
● NY-17: Westchester County Legislator Catherine Parker, who dropped out of the June 23 Democratic primary last month, has endorsed attorney Mondaire Jones.
● TX-23: VoteVets has announced that it has reserved $270,000 in TV time for the first half of September to boost Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones. The group says this purchase is for 1,000 points of air time, a term we explain here, in the San Antonio media market.
Mayoral
● Baltimore, MD Mayor: On Tuesday night, the Associated Press called the June 2 Democratic primary in this very blue city for City Council President Brandon Scott. Scott had trailed former Mayor Sheila Dixon until Sunday, but with almost all the votes in, he now leads 29-28―a margin of close to 2,400 votes. We’ll have more in the next Digest.
● Honolulu, HI Mayor: Former Rep. Colleen Hanabusa picked up an endorsement on Monday from the influential Hawaii State Teachers Association for the August nonpartisan primary. The union notably backed Gov. David Ige over Hanabusa during the 2018 Democratic primary, a contest Hanabusa ended up losing.