The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Primary Night: Some Land of Enchantment Evening: Eight different states are holding primaries on Tuesday in key races for state and federal office, giving us our first major downballot primary night in some time. We've put together our preview of what to watch in the most important contests in Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Montana, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and South Dakota.
There are quite a few major contests unfolding. The most high-profile primary is the GOP contest in Iowa's 4th District, where white nationalist Rep. Steve King has been badly outspent by state Sen. Randy Feenstra and his establishment allies. The GOP also will resolve some truly ugly primaries in Indiana's 5th District and New Mexico's 2nd District, two seats that will be seriously contested in the fall. There's a whole lot more to see, though, and you'll want to check out our preview for our rundown.
Campaign Action
These elections will unfold differently in each state, and we may not know the winners in several contests for days. The coronavirus pandemic means that more voters are casting ballots by mail than ever before, and many election officials have predicted that many votes won't be tallied on election night. In Indiana, for instance, Secretary of State Connie Lawson said she does not expect final results for two to three days.
Our live coverage will begin at 6 PM ET Tuesday night at Daily Kos Elections when the first polls close in Indiana. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates. And you'll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates of the presidential and downballot primaries in all 50 states—many of which have been changed—as well as our separate calendar tracking key contests further down the ballot taking place nationwide this year.
Election Changes
Please bookmark our litigation tracker for a complete compilation of the latest developments in every lawsuit regarding changes to election and voting procedures.
● Indiana: Republican Secretary of State Connie Lawson has rejected a request by Marion County Clerk Myla Eldridge, a Democrat, to extend the noon Tuesday deadline by which absentee ballots must be received for Indiana's June 2 primary. Eldridge had sought the extension to avoid disenfranchising thousands of voters who've experienced delays in receiving or returning their ballots.
● Massachusetts: A joint committee of Massachusetts' Democratic-run state House and Senate has unanimously passed a bill to expand mail voting and early voting for the state's Sept. 1 primary and the November general election. The measure would direct the secretary of state's office to send mail ballot applications to all registered voters and set up an online portal for requesting ballots. It would also for the first time allow early voting before the primary, for seven days, and expand early voting before the general election from 12 days to 14, allowing it to take in an additional weekend.
The establishment of pre-primary early voting is also how the law would enable mail voting for the primary. The Massachusetts constitution requires an excuse to vote by a traditional absentee ballot, but lawmakers passed a work-around in 2014 when they first enshrined early voting into law by allowing early voting by mail. However, that measure did not include an early voting period for primaries, meaning that only those with an excuse could vote by mail in primaries—a gap that the new law would fill.
The bill is set to go before the full House on Wednesday, though it's not clear when the Senate will take it up. Republican Gov. Charlie Baker has not expressed an opinion about the legislation, though lawmakers—including Democrats acting alone—could override any veto.
● Pennsylvania: Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf has issued an order extending the deadline by which mail ballots for Tuesday's primary must be received in order to count until 5 PM on June 9 for six Pennsylvania counties, Allegheny, Dauphin, Delaware, Erie, Montgomery and Philadelphia. Ballots must still be postmarked by Election Day. In all other counties, ballots must be received by Election Day.
At least five different lawsuits, including four that are still pending, have been filed seeking to extend the ballot receipt deadline because of delays related to the surge in mail ballot requests. One of those suits was brought by officials in one of the affected counties, Montgomery, and is currently being appealed after getting rejected by a lower court. Altogether, the six counties covered by Wolf's order are home to 37% of the state's population.
● Virginia: A federal judge has rejected a request by a group of Republican voters to bar Virginia officials from advising voters that, due to the pandemic, they can supply "disability or illness" as their reason for requesting an absentee ballot for the state's June 23 primary. The judge ruled that the plaintiffs, who did not file their suit until almost two months after the state issued its absentee voting guidance, had waited too long to bring their claims.
Senate
● CO-Sen: Former Gov. John Hickenlooper is out with his first TV spot ahead of the June 30 Democratic primary to take on GOP Sen. Cory Gardner.
Hickenlooper talks about creating jobs as governor and declares that D.C. also needs to build the economy "from the bottom up." He then says of Congress, "Instead of handing out loans to big corporations, they should be helping small businesses stay in business. Instead of insider deals, they should help families who are struggling." Hickenlooper's team says that it will spend more than $100,000 to run this ad.
● KS-Sen: Candidate filing closed Monday, and we finally know for sure that U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's name will not be on the August GOP primary ballot. National Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, had spent close to a year-and-a-half trying to recruit Pompeo, and they kept at it even after he announced in January that he wouldn't run. The Washington Post even reported that Donald Trump himself encouraged Pompeo to enter the race last month, but the secretary didn't take the bait.
● ME-Sen: The progressive group End Citizens United, which is supporting state House Speaker Sara Gideon in the July 14 Democratic primary, has launched a $2 million ad campaign against GOP Sen. Susan Collins.
The opening commercial declares, "Susan Collins once promised to put Maine first. But now she's collected $2.2 million dollars from Wall Street. And the most corporate PAC money in Maine history." The narrator continues, "And Collins voted to give Wall Street $18 billion in tax breaks, but tax hikes for Maine families."
● WY-Sen: Candidate filing closed Friday for Wyoming's Aug. 18 primary, and the state has a list of contenders available here.
Former Rep. Cynthia Lummis faces nine intra-party foes in the GOP primary to succeed retiring Sen. Mike Enzi, but it doesn't look like any of them will be able to put up a serious fight. Lummis ended March with a huge $1 million to $105,000 cash-on-hand lead over Converse County Commissioner Robert Short, who is a self-described "centrist Republican." Wyoming backed Donald Trump 68-22, which was his largest margin of victory in the whole country, and Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as Safe Republican.
Gubernatorial
● Race Ratings: Daily Kos Elections is moving two gubernatorial contests in the direction of the Democratic incumbents: North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper's race shifts from Lean to Likely Democratic, while Washington Gov. Jay Inslee goes from Likely to Safe Democratic.
North Carolina (Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic): Democrat Roy Cooper won this seat in a very tight battle four years ago, but polls had given him generally good approval ratings during the first three years of his tenure. That had made him look like the favorite in November against Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, but his standing has since improved further: Surveys taken since April have consistently shown the incumbent far ahead as respondents have overwhelmingly approved of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
North Carolina is still a very competitive state, and a strong performance by Donald Trump might give Forest a bigger opening. However, Forest's hard-line socially conservative views and his underwhelming fundraising could limit his opportunities even if Cooper's support wanes in the final months.
Washington (Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic): While some polls taken during the winter showed Democratic Gov. Inslee with only a modest approval rating, more recent surveys have found strong majorities of voters approving of the governor's handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Several Republicans filed to take on Inslee, but none of them come with prominent names, and none have the resources needed to put up a strong fight in this blue state. Democrats have controlled this office since winning it in the 1984 elections, and while voter fatigue could give Team Red an opening in a future cycle, Inslee is unlikely to have much trouble this time around.
House
● KS-01: State Rep. Troy Waymaster announced last week that he was dropping out of the GOP primary for this safely red open seat to run for re-election to the legislature.
● KS-02: Dennis Taylor, who served in former Gov. Sam Brownback's administration, launched a last-minute GOP primary campaign on Monday against freshman Rep. Steve Watkins. State Treasurer Jake LaTurner was already challenging Watkins for renomination, and Taylor's presence could split the anti-incumbent vote in August.
Taylor has a long history in Kansas politics, though he hasn't had much luck in party primaries. Taylor ran for a previous version of the 2nd District all the way back in 1982 and took third place. Decades later, Taylor served as Brownback's secretary of the Kansas Department of Administration and later as deputy director of the Kansas Lottery. Taylor waged another campaign for office in 2018 when he ran for secretary of state and ended up taking 20% of the vote, which was good for another third-place primary finish.
● KS-03: Just before filing closed on Monday, real estate investor Tom Love launched a last-minute campaign for the GOP nod to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids. Love pledged to only accept donations from registered voters in the district
Love won a seat in the state House back in 1990 … as a Democrat. Team Blue won a one-seat majority in the chamber that year, but Republicans retook control two years later and have held it ever since. Love badly lost in 1992 when nominated for a previous version of the 3rd District against Republican Rep. Jan Meyers. He switched parties soon after, but his career as a Republican didn't begin well. Love challenged Meyers in the 1994 primary and lost 59-31, and he doesn't appear to have run for anything else until now.
● ME-02: Real estate agent Adrienne Bennett's opening TV spot features 2018 Senate nominee Eric Brakey, who is one of her rivals in the July 14 GOP primary, dancing in a speedo. While we initially assumed this was an actor playing Brakey, the text at the bottom of the commercial reads, "Yes, this is real footage of Brakey." And as the Portland Press Herald reported back in 2013, this footage was filmed for a 2011 commercial for Vita Coco Coconut Water featuring Brakey, who was working as an actor at the time.
As Brakey grooves, Bennett's narrator says that he "hates President Trump. Called him a 'disaster." The speaker concludes, "Eric Brakey is a clown," and sure enough, a red nose appears on his face.
The scene then shifts to Bennett who responds, "Yikes." Bennett then goes on to talk about her humble origins and how she "backed President Trump from day one." The spot does not mention former state Rep. Dale Crafts, who is the other candidate in the primary, or freshman Democratic Rep. Jared Golden.
P.S. This isn't the first time that Brakey's opponents have tried to embarrass him with the Vita footage. Back in 2013, when Brakey was first running for the state Senate, a conservative activist named Mike Hein posted the video, which he said made Brakey look as if he were "demon possessed." Brakey himself responded that the ad was "a comedy piece to promote the product," and that "[i]t shows that I'm a full human being with more experience than just working in politics."
Ultimately, the video didn't harm Brakey's new political career. He won the GOP nomination without opposition the following year and went on to serve two terms in the state Senate. Several national publications later ran stories about the Vita ad during Brakey's bid against independent Sen. Angus King. Brakey's underfunded campaign later lost that contest 54-35 for reasons that had very little to do with his old acting job.
● NH-01: On Monday, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy endorsed former Trump aide Matt Mowers in the September GOP primary to face freshman Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas. Mowers ended March with a wide $317,000 to $78,000 cash-on-hand lead over former state party vice chair Matt Mayberry, who is his main intra-party foe, while Pappas had $1.3 million to spend.
● NJ-03: Former Burlington County Freeholder Kate Gibbs is using her first TV spot for the July 7 GOP primary to throw the kitchen sink at wealthy businessman David Richter. The narrator accuses Richter of "opening offices in China to steal American jobs," and of making millions "dealing with terrorist Muammar Gaddafi after he killed U.S. soldiers and civilians."
"Richter even partnered with Joe Biden's family to pump business through Obama's State Department," the narrator declares before an image fills the screen of Joe Biden looking like he's holding Richter's shoulders and whispering into his ear. The commercial also displays a headline from the white white nationalist site Breitbart that declares, " … Richter attacked Trump, donated to Democrats, has ties to Bidens." The final portion of the ad praises Gibbs as the real Trump ally. The spot does not mention freshman Democratic Rep. Andy Kim.
● NY-11: The NRA has endorsed former prosecutor Joe Caldarera in the June 23 GOP primary to face freshman Democratic Rep. Max Rose. Caldarera is very much the underdog against Trump-backed Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis, who ended March with a massive cash-on-hand lead.
● NY-16: Educator Andom Ghebreghiorgis announced Monday that he was ending his Democratic primary bid against longtime Rep. Eliot Engel and endorsing middle school principal Jamaal Bowman. Ghebreghiorgis' name will still remain in the June 23 primary ballot, though.
● SC-01: Mount Pleasant Town Councilwoman Kathy Landing's newest ad for next week's GOP primary ties freshman Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and argues that Landing is "not bought and paid for by anybody."
● VA-05: Former GOP Rep. Tom Garrett has endorsed Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good's bid against freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman at the June 13 nominating convention. Whether this endorsement is helpful for Good is an open question, though.
Garrett won a similar party gathering back in 2016, but he ended his re-election campaign two years later. Garrett said at the time he was leaving to focus on his fight with alcoholism, but he spent his final months in Congress under investigation by the House Ethics Committee.
On his final day in the House, the committee issued a lengthy report determining that Garrett had violated House rules by directing his staff to run personal errands for him. Additionally, two witnesses said that the congressman had used marijuana with staffers and inquired about buying more. The report also accused Garrett of deliberately dragging his feet during the investigation so that he could run out the clock and avoid censure before his term expired.
Legislative
● Special Elections: There are two special elections in the Massachusetts state House on tap for Tuesday. These elections were originally scheduled for March 31 but were delayed because of the coronavirus pandemic:
MA-HD-3rd Bristol: This is a Republican district that became vacant earlier this year when former state Rep. Shaunna O'Connell became mayor of Taunton. Taunton School Committee member Carol Doherty is the Democratic candidate, while the Republicans are fielding paralegal Kelly Dooner.
This district is decidedly blue at the presidential level, having backed Hillary Clinton 52-42 and Barack Obama 58-40. However, O'Connell had little trouble consistently winning re-election. Two weeks ago, Democrats flipped two state Senate districts in Massachusetts that had backed both Democratic presidential nominees, and Team Blue hopes to replicate that success here again.
MA-HD-37th Middlesex: This is a Democratic district that became vacant after former state Rep. Jennifer Benson resigned to become president of The Alliance for Business Leadership. The Democrats are running Danilo Sena, who is an aide to state Sen. Jamie Eldridge, while the GOP has nominated businesswoman Catherine Clark. This is a strongly Democratic district that supported Clinton 62-31 and Obama 57-41.
The composition of this chamber is 125-31 (with one independent member) with three seats vacant including these two.
Mayoral
● Honolulu, HI Mayor: On Sunday, just days before the June 2 filing deadline, conservative Mufi Hannemann announced that he would run to regain his old post. Hannemann will compete in the Aug. 8 nonpartisan primary to succeed termed-out incumbent Kirk Caldwell against several rivals, including former Democratic Rep. Colleen Hanabusa. In the likely event that no one takes a majority of the vote, the two candidates with the most support will face off in November.
Hannemann has a long career in Hawaii politics going back to his unsuccessful 1986 congressional campaign as a Democrat. Hannemann was elected mayor in 2004 and he soon accumulated a terrible record on LGBTQ rights and abortion access.
Hannemann resigned as mayor in 2010 to run for governor, but he lost the Democratic primary 60-38 to his old adversary, former Rep. Neil Abercrombie. Hannemann proceeded to run for the 2nd Congressional District two years later, and while he looked like the primary frontrunner for most of the campaign, he lost 55-34 against Honolulu City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard.
Hannemann decided in 2014 to once again run against Abercrombie, who had alienated just about every important Democratic constituency during his governorship, but he waged his new campaign as an independent. State Sen. David Ige defeated the unpopular Abercrombie in the primary, though, which immediately boosted Democratic prospects in November. However, Hannemann still continued his campaign even as Republicans spent heavily to boost former Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona in the general election. Ige ended up beating Aiona 49-37, while Hannemann took 12%.
Hannemann went on to become head of the Hawaii Lodging and Tourism Association, a position he held when he entered the mayor’s race over the weekend. Hannemann did consider another independent bid for governor last cycle but decided against it, and it’s not clear how he identifies now.
