Campaign Action
The narrator then launches an actual attack on Rep. Roger Marshall, who appears to be Kobach's main intra-party rival. "And Roger Marshall's a phony," says the narrator, "After backing a Mitt Romney-like candidate for president, he's been soft on Trump and weak on immigration." That "Mitt Romney-like candidate" was then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich, whom Marshall supported in the 2016 presidential primaries.
The narrator keeps piling on Marshall and declares, "Marshall's been both for and against the wall. He went easy on China but now talks tough." The ad then concludes that Marshall is "fake, fake, fake." Businessman Bob Hamilton, who has sunk millions of his own money into his campaign for the Republican nod, goes unmentioned.
Sunflower State PAC was only formed on Monday, and there's no word yet on who is funding it. However, Politico notes that it employs a prominent Democratic media buyer and is also banking with a firm that frequently does business with Democratic groups.
The buy comes after a week after an organization called Plains PAC began a $3 million campaign to stop Kobach, and there's good reason to think that the Republican establishment is connected to its effort. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his allies have made it clear that they fear Kobach, who lost the 2018 gubernatorial race, could cost them this race against Democratic state Sen. Barbara Bollier, and that they'll spend what it takes to stop him from getting nominated.
ELECTION CHANGES
● Vermont: Democratic Secretary of State Jim Condos has sent absentee ballot applications to all Vermont voters ahead of the state's Aug. 11 primaries. Condos has also said his office will mail ballots (not just applications) to all voters for the November general election.
Senate
● ME-Sen: While the prominent LGBTQ rights organization The Human Rights Campaign has backed Republican Sen. Susan Collins in past elections, it announced Wednesday that it would instead support newly-minted Democratic nominee Sara Gideon this cycle.
● Senate: On behalf of CNBC, the Democratic firm Change Research is out with a trio of Senate polls:
- AZ-Sen: Mark Kelly (D): 52, Martha McSally (R-inc): 45 (51-45 Biden) (early July: 50-42 Kelly)
- MI-Sen: Gary Peters (D-inc): 50, John James (R): 43 (48-42 Biden) (June: 49-42 Peters)
- NC-Sen: Cal Cunningham (D): 49, Thom Tillis (R-inc): 42 (47-46 Biden) (June: 51-41 Cunningham)
The sample size for each state can be found here.
Gubernatorial
● MO-Gov: Democrat Nicole Galloway decisively outraised Republican Gov. Mike Parson $1.1 million to $481,000 during the second quarter of the year, and each of them held just north of $1.5 million on-hand at the end of June.
However, the story is very different when it comes to each candidate's allied super PAC, which can accept an unlimited amount of money from contributors. The pro-Parson Uniting Missouri PAC outraised the Galloway-aligned Keep Government Accountable $1.6 million to $700,000, and it holds a hefty $5.1 million to $1.6 million cash-on-hand lead.
● NC-Gov: Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper uses his first TV ad against Republican Dan Forest to go after Forest's many terrible declarations about the coronavirus pandemic.
The audience first hears Forest say in late May, "North Carolina, we've never had a curve problem here. Our curve has always been flat," before the screen shows a huge spike in the number of coronavirus deaths. The commercial then goes back to Forest proclaiming, "We know who gets this virus, who gets the bad symptoms of this virus … because this virus is not impacting young people," which is immediately contradicted by a headline from the Raleigh News & Observer.
The spot goes on to feature audio of a newscaster saying, "Dan Forest said masks do not work with viruses. And that's just not true."
House
● KS-02: On Tuesday evening, Shawnee County District Attorney Mike Kagay charged freshman Republican Rep. Steve Watkins with three felonies and a misdemeanor stemming from the votes he cast in last year’s local elections while listing a UPS store in Topeka as his home address on his voter registration form. The indictment comes just three weeks ahead of Kansas' Aug. 4 primary, where Watkins faces a tough challenge from state Treasurer Jake LaTurner.
In December, when the Topeka Capital-Journal first reported the story, Watkins' team argued that the congressman had made an "inadvertent" error and insisted he had "no improper purpose" because the UPS store and his supposed residence are both in the same county and congressional district. However, the locations are in different city council districts, and Watkins voted in a race last fall—in the district corresponding to his UPS address—that was decided by just 13 votes.
Local authorities began investigating Watkins for potential voter fraud soon after the Capital-Journal's story broke. That culminated in Kagay's announcement Tuesday that he was charging the congressman with three felonies: “interference with law enforcement, providing false information,” “voting without being qualified,” and “unlawful advance voting.” Kagay also indicted Watkins for “failing to notify the DMV of change of address,” which is a misdemeanor.
Awkwardly for Watkins, the news came just half an hour before he was set to debate his intra-party rivals, LaTurner and former Brownback administration official Dennis Taylor. Watkins responded to the developments by insisting, “As soon as I realized that I had put my mailing address instead of my physical address, we fixed it,” and went on to argue, “Truly, the timing is suspicious.”
LaTurner had already begun attacking Watkins over the investigation before the indictment was issued: In an ad that launched last week, LaTurner stands in front of the UPS store at the center of the scandal and tells the audience that "this is where Congressman Steve Watkins claimed to live on his voter registration. Instead of Alaska, where he owns two homes." (According to the Kansas City Star, Watkins lived most of his adult life in Massachusetts and Alaska until he moved to Kansas not long before his congressional run.)
Watkins remained defiant on Wednesday, with a spokesperson telling Roll Call that the congressman would not resign his committee posts, even though the House GOP's own rules require him to do so. If Watkins doesn't budge, as Lindsey McPherson notes, that could compel Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy to convene the Republican Steering Committee to forcibly oust him.
And that's not the only headache Watkins is giving the GOP. Kansas’ 2nd District backed Donald Trump 56-37, but Watkins only won his first term 48-47 last cycle. Democrats have a credible challenger in Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla, and despite the district's red lean, Watkins' new legal travails could improve her odds in the general election if Republican primary voters are inclined to overlook them next month.
● PA-01: EMILY's List has endorsed Democrat Christina Finello's campaign against Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick.
● VA-05, VA-07: On Tuesday, the DCCC filed a lawsuit in state court against the Virginia State Board of Elections over its decision last week to allow two Republican candidates, 5th District nominee Bob Good and 7th District candidate Nick Freitas, to belatedly file the paperwork they need to appear on the November ballot even though they each missed the June 9 deadline to turn in these documents. The lawsuit argued that the board's move "exceeds its statutory authority and upends the Commonwealth's clear and important election laws, effectively waiving the Deadline without any legal authority to do so."
The legal stakes, at least for now, are bigger for Team Red in the GOP-held 5th District, where Good already is the party's nominee, than in the 7th, where Freitas is one of six Republicans running against Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger. However, the 7th District nominating convention is on Saturday, and things could get complicated if Freitas prevails.
Grab Bag
● Where Are They Now?: On Wednesday, Wake County District Attorney Lorrin Freeman announced that she would not file charges against Republican Mark Harris over the election fraud that was committed on his behalf in the 2018 contest for North Carolina's 9th Congressional District. Freeman said in her statement that there wasn't enough evidence to indict Harris, though she added, "Charges against multiple individuals including Mr. McCrae Dowless who was hired by the Harris campaign remain pending and investigators continue probing other areas of evidence."
Dowless is currently awaiting trial on federal charges for his role in the scandal, which resulted in the State Board of Elections invalidating the 2018 results and ordering a special election that took place last September. Dowless is also seeking re-election to his post on the Bladen County Soil and Water Conservation District in November.
Election Results Recap
● AL-Sen: On Tuesday, former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions lost the ugly Republican primary runoff for his old Senate seat to Donald Trump's endorsed candidate, former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville. With 550,000 votes counted, Tuberville leads Sessions by a wide 61-39 margin. Tuberville will take on Sen. Doug Jones, who is the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate simply by virtue of his state's deep red hue.
Both parties have released polls in recent weeks showing Jones behind Tuberville, though each side very much disagrees on how competitive this race is. The far-right Club for Growth, which aired ads for Tuberville in the runoff, unveiled a survey from WPA Intelligence on Monday that found Tuberville beating the incumbent 50-40. Still, the Club isn't acting like this race is a done deal, and Politico recently reported that it had booked $1.3 million for an ad buy that began the day after the runoff.
WPA's results are similar to a late June survey from the GOP firm Cygnal, which showed Tuberville ahead 50-36; Cygnal said that this survey was not conducted for anyone. However, the Democratic pollster ALG Research, working on behalf of a private client, also released numbers around that same time giving Tuberville just a 47-44 edge over Jones. The one nonpartisan pollster that has released numbers here in months was Auburn University at Montgomery, which recently found Tuberville ahead 44-36. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Likely Republican.
No matter how the Jones-Tuberville race turns out in November, though, Tuesday's Republican runoff results were one final humiliation for Sessions at the hands of Trump, his one-time ally. Four years ago, Sessions stood out as the first senator to back Trump during the presidential primary, and Trump rewarded him after the election by naming him U.S. attorney general.
However, their relationship quickly collapsed after Sessions recused himself from the federal investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election, and Sessions spent the rest of his tenure on the receiving end of a non-stop Twitter hate barrage from Trump. Sessions was forced to resign in 2018, a move that, as Jason Zengerle would write in the New York Times Magazine earlier this year, left him "by some accounts, a broken man."
In November of 2019, exactly one year after his sacking, Sessions announced that he would run to reclaim the Senate seat he'd held for 20 years from Jones, who had flipped it in a 2017 special election against scandal-plagued Republican Roy Moore. Sessions' allies, including Sen. Richard Shelby, tried to convince Trump to at least stay neutral in the primary, and for months, they succeeded. Trump refrained from saying anything about Sessions, who even ran ads that highlighted their once close relationship and avoided mentioning their subsequent falling out.
Tuberville led Sessions by a narrow 33-32 in the first round of voting back in March, which was well short of the majority either of them needed to avoid a runoff. Everything started to unravel for Sessions the next day, though, when Trump resumed trashing him on Twitter; Trump endorsed Tuberville the following week. Alabama soon changed the date of the primary runoff from March 31 to July 14 because of the coronavirus pandemic, which may have hurt Sessions further by giving Trump several extra months to attack him—time Trump would very much make use of.
Tuberville and the Club piled on, with the former coach memorably running a commercial arguing that Sessions "wasn't man enough to stand with President Trump when things got tough." Sessions fought back by depicting Tuberville, who had left Alabama following his 2008 resignation as Auburn coach after a bad season, as an outsider. This contest was especially nasty, and The New York Times wrote Tuesday that there hadn't been a single positive ad since February. Ultimately, though, Sessions ended Tuesday with his first electoral defeat in his more than two decades in state politics.
● AL-01: Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl won a close Republican primary runoff to succeed outgoing Rep. Bradley Byrne, who gave up this safely red Gulf Coast seat to unsuccessfully run for the Senate. With 85,000 votes counted, Carl beat former state Sen. Bill Hightower 52-48. Carl had Byrne's endorsement, while the Club spent a total of $1.4 million in both rounds of the primary to aid Hightower.
● AL-02: Former state Rep. Barry Moore decisively won the Republican runoff to succeed retiring Rep. Martha Roby in this safely red seat. With 86,000 votes tabulated, Moore leads wealthy businessman Jeff Coleman 60-40 for a district that includes part of the Montgomery area as well as the nearby Wiregrass region.
Roby had endorsed Coleman over Moore, who had unsuccessfully challenged her in the 2018 primary (he finished third back then with 19%), and Coleman also decisively outspent his opponent. However, the Club for Growth spent over $700,000 on ads promoting Moore and attacking Coleman.
● ME-Sen: State House Speaker Sara Gideon decisively defeated 2018 gubernatorial candidate Betsy Sweet in the Democratic primary to face Republican Sen. Susan Collins; with 143,000 votes in, Gideon led 70-23.
While both parties have been treating Gideon as Collins' inevitable opponent, the speaker does get one big benefit from winning the primary. Progressive activists raised $5.6 million via Crowdpac and ActBlue to support Collins' eventual Democratic opponent following the senator’s the decisive vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court in 2018, and those funds will now go to Gideon's campaign. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as a Tossup.
● ME-02: While the Associated Press has not yet called the instant runoff Republican primary to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, former state Rep. Dale Crafts has received concessions from both of his intra-party foes. With 48,000 votes in, Crafts, who is backed by former Gov. Paul LePage, leads real estate agent Adrienne Bennett 45-32; 2018 Senate nominee Eric Brakey, who benefited from over $1 million in outside spending from the far-right Club for Growth and like-minded groups, took the remaining 23%.
Because Crafts appears to have fallen short of a majority of the vote, his win won't be official until the state does its ranked-choice tabulations; in the 2018 primary, this occurred eight days after Election Day. However, Brakey's supporters would have to pick Bennett as their second choice in near-unanimous numbers for her to have a chance, and her concession underscores just how unlikely that is to happen.
This northern Maine seat swung from 53-44 Obama to 51-41 Trump, and both sides are preparing for a very expensive race here. The DCCC and their allies at House Majority PAC have reserved $3.7 million, while the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund has booked $1.9 million. And because Maine, along with Nebraska, is the only state that awards an electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district, both the Trump and Biden campaigns may also invest plenty of money here. Daily Kos Elections rates this as a Tossup.
● Texas: The Lone Star state hosted a number of competitive runoffs on Tuesday, and there are several other seats we'll be watching this fall. To help you keep track of all the action, we've put together a cheat-sheet for every seat with a potentially interesting primary, general, or both.
● TX-Sen: Air Force veteran MJ Hegar won a close Democratic primary runoff for the right to take on Republican Sen. John Cornyn. With 956,000 votes in, Hegar led state Sen. Royce West 52-48. The DSCC supported Hegar, while Cornyn ran ads that were meant to encourage Democratic voters to support West.
The last time Democrats won any statewide races in Texas was 1994, but several polls have shown Joe Biden close to, or leading, Donald Trump. However, the few surveys we've seen have shown Cornyn with a clear, though not insurmountable, lead over Hegar. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Likely Republican.
● TX-03: Attorney Lulu Seikaly decisively won the Democratic nod to take on freshman Republican Rep. Van Taylor in what may turn into a longshot target for Team Blue. With 34,000 votes counted, Seikaly outpaced fellow attorney Sean McCaffity 61-39. Seikaly, who is the daughter of Lebanese immigrants, would be the first woman of color to represent this Collin County district.
This suburban Dallas-Fort Worth seat has been safely GOP turf for decades, but that may finally be changing. The district, which has the highest proportion of college degree-holders of any seat in the country that the GOP still holds, moved from 64-34 Romney to a smaller 55-41 Trump, and GOP Sen. Ted Cruz only carried it 51-48 last cycle. Still, this area has thus far remained reliably red down the ballot, and Taylor won his 2018 open seat race without any trouble. Seikaly also only brought in a total of $385,000 through late June, though she may do better now that she's the nominee. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Safe Republican.
● TX-10: After coming unexpectedly close two years ago, attorney Mike Siegel has earned his rematch with Republican Rep. Michael McCaul. With 48,000 votes counted in the Democratic primary runoff, Siegel defeated physician Pritesh Gandhi 54-46.
McCaul had been accustomed to easy re-elections in a gerrymandered seat that awkwardly stretches from Austin east into the Houston area, but he only defeated Siegel 51-47 last cycle in a contest that attracted very little outside attention. However, that shocking result was no isolated incident: Donald Trump's 53-42 win in 2016 was a noticeable drop from Mitt Romney's 59-39 performance four years before, and Beto O'Rourke narrowly carried this district 49.6-49.5 against GOP Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018. Daily Kos Elections rates this as Lean Republican.
● TX-13: Former White House chief physician Ronny Jackson won an expensive contest for this ultra-red seat in the Texas Panhandle. With 66,000 votes in, Jackson beat lobbyist Josh Winegarner 56-44. Jackson, whose 2018 nomination to become secretary of veterans affairs collapsed after whistleblowers accused him of drinking to excess while on the job and overprescribing medications, had the support of Donald Trump and the Club for Growth, while Winegarner had retiring Rep. Mac Thornberry in his corner.
● TX-17: Former Rep. Pete Sessions won a competitive Republican runoff to represent a seat located 80 miles away from the Dallas-area district he held for 22 years. With 34,000 votes in, Sessions led businesswoman Renee Swann, who was backed by retiring Rep. Bill Flores, 54-46.
Sessions lost an expensive 2018 general election back in Dallas to Democrat Colin Allred, but he should have little to worry about this fall. This seat, which includes Sessions' childhood home of Waco as well as the rival university community of College Station, backed Trump by a wide 56-39 margin, and Republican Sen. Ted Cruz defeated Beto O'Rourke here last cycle by a narrower 54-45 spread. 2018 Democratic nominee Rick Kennedy, who lost to Flores 57-41, won the runoff Tuesday as well, but he'd only raised $100,000 through the end of June. Daily Kos Elections rates this as Safe Republican.
● TX-22: Despite being massively outspent, Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls pulled off a landslide victory in the Republican runoff against self-funder Kathaleen Wall. With 51,000 votes tabulated, Nehls led Wall, who spent at least $8.3 million of her own money on this campaign, 70-30.
Nehls will take on 2018 Democratic nominee Sri Preston Kulkarni, who won his party's nomination back in March, in the contest to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Pete Olson. Kulkarni held Olson to a surprisingly close 51-46 win last cycle in a contest that attracted little attention, but he's raised a serious amount of money for his second bid. Nehls, by contrast, had just $33,000 in the bank on June 24 in the midst of his nasty fight with Wall.
This well-educated and diverse seat in the southern Houston suburbs began the decade as safely red turf, but it's been moving to the left during the Trump era. The district shifted from 62-37 for Romney to just 52-44 Trump, and GOP Sen. Ted Cruz took it only 50-49 last cycle. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Lean Republican.
● TX-23: With 24,685 ballots tabulated in the Republican runoff, Navy veteran Tony Gonzales holds a 7-vote lead over businessman Raul Reyes. Gonzales declared victory on Wednesday morning, but Reyes has not conceded. It is not clear how many votes are left to count.
Whoever wins will be in for a tough race against 2018 Democratic nominee Gina Ortiz Jones, who won her primary in March and has proven to be one of the party's strongest fundraisers. This seat, which stretches from the San Antonio area west into El Paso County, swung from 51-48 Romney to 50-46 Clinton, and Daily Kos Elections rates it as Lean Democratic.
● TX-24: Former local school board member Candace Valenzuela decisively beat Air Force veteran Kim Olson in the Democratic primary runoff for this open seat; with 33,000 votes counted, Valenzuela led 60-40. A Valenzuela general election win would make her the first Black Latina to serve in Congress.
On election night, after it was clear Valenzuela had claimed the nomination, the DCCC released a mid-June poll from ALG Research that gave her a 45-39 lead over former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, who won the GOP nod in March. The sample also found Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 51-45 in an ancestrally Republican district that has been shifting left.
This seat, which includes the suburbs north of Dallas and Fort Worth, moved from 60-36 Romney to 51-45 Trump, and Democratic Senate nominee Beto O'Rourke carried it 51-48 last cycle. Republican Rep. Kenny Marchant, who is now retiring, also only prevailed in 2018 51-48 against a Democratic opponent who had very little money. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Lean Republican.
● TX-31: Tech businesswoman Donna Imam won the Democratic runoff for a seat that was close in 2018, but hasn't been on many target lists this time. With 37,000 votes in, Iman led 2018 candidate Christine Mann 57-43. Iman, who would be the first person of South Asian descent to represent this suburban Austin seat, will now take on longtime Republican Rep. John Carter.
This district backed Trump 54-41 but supported GOP Sen. Ted Cruz by a small 51-48 margin; last cycle, Carter also fended off MJ Hegar, who is now Team Blue's Senate nominee, 51-48. However, Iman only raised $235,000 through June 24 and self-funded another $200,000, and there hasn't been any major outside activity on either side yet. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Safe Republican.
● Travis County, TX District Attorney: Progressive challenger José Garza decisively unseated incumbent Margaret Moore in the Democratic primary runoff to serve as the top prosecutor for Austin and its nearby suburbs. With 119,000 votes in, Garza, a former public defender who serves as executive director of the Workers Defense Project, outpaced Moore 68-32. Garza will be the heavy favorite in November against Republican Martin Harry in a county that backed Hillary Clinton 66-27.
As The Appeal explains, Moore antagonized criminal justice reformers by failing to prosecute Austin police officers who had killed an unarmed man named Mike Ramos. Moore said of her critics, "The frustration is fomented by those who do not understand the system."
Garza, by contrast, has pledged to bring any cases of police shootings or misconduct to a grand jury. Garza also has said he will not prosecute cases involving the possession or sale of drugs under one gram.
● Special Elections: Here's a recap of Tuesday's special election in Texas:
TX-SD-14: With 119,000 votes counted as of Tuesday afternoon, two Democrats, former Travis County Judge Sarah Eckhardt and state Rep. Eddie Rodriguez, were leading the race in this Austin-based district. Eckhardt is currently in first with 49.66%, and if the current results stand, the pair will face each other in a runoff on a date that has yet to be determined.
The Associated Press had not made a call here, however, and any shifts could possibly tip the race to Eckhardt and preclude a runoff altogether. Rodriguez was in second with 34% and Republican Don Zimmerman was third with 13%. The other three candidates running combined for 3% of the vote. Overall, Democratic candidates are leading Republicans 84-14 in this district that backed Hillary Clinton 66-28 and Barack Obama 60-36.
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