The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● MA Ballot: On Monday, supporters of a referendum to institute instant-runoff voting in Massachusetts announced that officials have verified that they've turned in enough valid signatures to make the November ballot. If this measure wins a majority this fall, then Massachusetts will be the second state after Maine to use this method to decide many of its elections.
If passed, instant-runoff voting (also known as ranked-choice voting) would, starting in 2022, apply to both primaries and general elections for governor and other statewide offices; U.S. Senate and House; the state legislature; and countywide posts such as district attorney and sheriff. The measure would not impact presidential elections or races for city and town offices.
While Massachusetts is a heavily Democratic state in federal elections, several important contests in recent years have concluded with no candidate wonning a majority of the vote. In the 2010 race for governor, for instance, Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick fended off Republican Charlie Baker 48-42. Four years later, then-Attorney General Martha Coakley won the Democratic primary to succeed Patrick 42-36, but she went on to lose to Baker 48-47.
Campaign Action
We'll never know how any of these elections would have turned out if instant-runoff voting had been in place, though there's reason to think that Coakley could have prevailed over Baker: Third-party candidate Evan Falchuk, who took a crucial 3% of the vote in the 2014 general election, campaigned as a progressive, and his voters might have broken for Coakley if given a second choice.
Primary Preview
● Primary Night: Runoffs are Now in Sessions: We have another big election night on Tuesday as primaries and runoffs take place in Alabama, Maine, and Texas. As always, we've put together our preview of the races to watch.
Perhaps the biggest contest of the night will be the Republican runoff in Alabama, where former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions is the underdog against Donald Trump's chosen candidate, former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville. And that’s not the only Sessions trying to return to Congress: Over in Texas, former Rep. Pete Sessions is seeking the Republican nomination for a seat 100 miles from the district he lost in 2018. We also have Sessions-free races for House seats in all three states, including some major battlegrounds.
Our live coverage will begin at 8 PM ET Tuesday night at Daily Kos Elections when the polls close in Alabama, Maine, and most of Texas. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates. And you'll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates of the presidential and down-ballot primaries in all 50 states—many of which have been changed—as well as our separate calendar tracking key contests further down the ballot taking place nationwide this year.
Election Changes
● Missouri: A state court judge has denied a request by the NAACP to block Missouri officials from enforcing a requirement that all voters, excepting those who have contracted COVID-19 or are in an "at-risk category" for contracting the disease, must have their absentee ballots notarized. Previously, the same judge, Jon Beetem, had dismissed the NAACP's case, but the suit was reinstated by the Missouri Supreme Court last month.
In his latest decision, Beetem concluded that the plaintiffs had presented "no new arguments" since the matter first came before him. Repeating his earlier ruling verbatim, the judge declared, "If Plaintiffs' interpretation were correct, then a voter who feared catching any illness at the polls, in any future election, would be entitled by the statute to cast an absentee ballot."
● North Carolina: With the support of the ACLU, four North Carolina voters have brought a lawsuit in state court asking that election officials be barred from enforcing a requirement that absentee voters have their ballots witnessed. At least two other lawsuits (one federal and one in state court) are also challenging the law
However, this is the first case to be filed since legislators passed a law last month relaxing the witness requirement. Previously, it had been necessary to obtain signatures from two witnesses or a notary; for the duration of 2020, however, only one witness is required. The plaintiffs argue that the fact that lawmakers enacted this "temporary regime" for absentee voting "reflects the State's recognition that under pandemic conditions, witnessing of ballots poses a severe health risk to voters."
Senate
● AZ-Sen: YouGov's new poll for CBS gives Democrat Mark Kelly a 46-42 edge over Republican Sen. Martha McSally, while the presidential race is deadlocked 46-46. Aside from a recent survey by the unreliable Gravis Marketing for the far-right One America News Network, this is the best result we've seen for McSally since March.
● IA-Sen: The progressive group End Citizens United has launched a $1.1 million ad buy against Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. The commercial declares that Ernst "knowingly accepted thousands of dollars in illegal contributions, including from corporations, and had to pay the largest penalty ever for an Iowa politician."
● GA-Sen-B: In an unusual move, 25 Democratic senators from across the country together endorsed pastor Raphael Warnock in his bid for the Senate, joining five of their colleagues who'd already done so. While this new infusion of support is unlikely to move many votes in Georgia, the move is a further signal to party leaders and donors that national Democrats are coalescing around Warnock. Recent polls have shown it's possible that Team Blue could get locked out of an all-but-certain January runoff if a split in November between the three Democrats running allows the two Republicans in the race to advance.
● KS-Sen: The Kansas City Star reports that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has begun a $400,000 opening ad campaign in support of Rep. Roger Marshall ahead of the Aug. 4 Republican primary. The spot touts Marshall's work for fellow veterans.
● MT-Sen, MT-Gov, MT-AL: The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling has released a survey of Montana that finds close contests for U.S. Senate, governor, and the state's only U.S. House seat. This is the second poll sparked by a successful crowdfunding effort by election enthusiasts on Twitter to pay for a survey of Alaska. (PPP director Tom Jensen wound up waiving his firm's fee for the two polls so that organizers could donate the proceeds to charity.)
The sample gives Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock a small 46-44 edge against Republican incumbent Steve Daines in the Senate race, while Donald Trump leads 51-42 in a state he carried 56-35 four years ago. That's a slight improvement for Bullock from the 47-47 tie that PPP found in its March survey for his allies at End Citizens United. An April poll from Montana State University-Billings, meanwhile, had Bullock ahead 46-39, and a recent survey by University of Montana gave the Democrat a 47-43 lead.
PPP finds that voters approve of the job Bullock is doing as governor by a 50-38 margin, while Daines posts a meh 43-42 approval rating. However, the pollster adds that the undecideds in this new poll back Trump by a 37-point margin, which could make it difficult for Bullock to emerge with the win in this conservative state. Still, the writeup also notes that Democratic Sen. Jon Tester prevailed two years ago even though the undecideds were also "structurally Republican" during the midterms.
Over in the gubernatorial contest, Republican Greg Gianforte outpaces Democrat Mike Cooney 46-42, which is smaller than the 46-36 lead that the University of Montana recently found for him. Gianforte, who achieved national infamy in 2017 when he assaulted reporter Ben Jacobs and then lied about his actions, has an underwater 40-47 favorable rating, while Cooney is pretty undefined with his 27-25 score.
Finally, in the race to succeed Gianforte in the House, Democrat Kathleen Williams and Republican Matt Rosendale are deadlocked 44-44; PPP also found the two tied four months ago. The UM poll showed Rosendale ahead 45-37, while a recent Williams internal from Global Strategy Group had a tie as well, at 47 apiece.
PPP shows that voters view Williams more favorably than her Republican rival almost two years after both she and Rosendale lost statewide bids. Williams, who took on Gianforte last cycle, sports a 37-33 score, while Rosendale, who lost to Tester, is at 34-40. Still, the poll finds that the undecideds back Trump by a 28-point margin, which, again, should favor Rosendale.
● NC-Sen: Republican Sen. Thom Tillis earned the wrong kind of attention during his first month in office back in 2015 when he said that restaurants shouldn't be required to make employees wash their hands, and a new commercial from the Democratic group Forward Majority puts that very poorly-aged gaffe front-and-center.
The spot shows various people rinsing their hands as the narrator explains, "Everyone does it. Especially now. Well maybe not everyone …" It then goes to a clip of a news anchor explaining, "Thom Tillis says the signs requiring employees to wash their hands are a product of over-regulation." The narrator goes on say, "But that's not all: Tillis voted to cut funding for Medicaid six times. He even voted against funding for masks, gloves, and ventilators."
● TX-Sen: The University of Texas-Tyler has released a survey of Tuesday's Democratic primary for the Dallas Morning News showing Air Force veteran MJ Hegar leading state Sen. Royce West 35-22. An additional 11% of respondents say they'll back an unnamed other candidate, though Hegar and West are the only names on the ballot.
The poll also tests each Democrat in a hypothetical general election with Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who leads Hegar 42-29 and outpaces West by a similar 43-28 spread. Even though UT Tyler shows the senator well ahead, though, this sample also favors Joe Biden 48-43 in a state that hasn't supported a Democratic presidential nominee since Jimmy Carter carried it in 1976.
YouGov's new survey for CBS also takes a look at both potential general election heats, finding things a little closer than UT Tyler does: Cornyn leads Hegar and West 44-36 and 43-37, respectively, while Donald Trump edges Biden 46-45.
We've seen two other polls in the last few months testing Cornyn against either Democrat. In late June, a Fox News poll from the bipartisan team of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research had Cornyn leading each Democrat by a 10-point margin. A survey from around that same time for Hegar's allies at EMILY's List from Public Policy Polling showed the incumbent beating her 42-35, while numbers were not released for West.
Gubernatorial
● MO-Gov: Saint Louis University is out with a survey that gives Republican Gov. Mike Parson just a 41-39 edge over Democrat Nicole Galloway, several points smaller than Donald Trump's unimpressive 50-43 lead in a state he carried 56-38 four years ago. However, even Galloway doesn’t see her own race as being this close, as she recently released an internal poll from Garin-Hart-Yang that showed her with a larger 47-40 deficit against Parson.
● NC-Gov: Both campaigns have reported their fundraising for the period covering Feb. 16 to June 30, and Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper maintains a big financial advantage over Republican Dan Forest. Cooper outraised his rival $5.5 million to $2.4 million during this time, and he ended last month with a huge $14 million to $2 million cash-on-hand lead.
Forest, meanwhile, went up with his first TV spot last week. The narrator declares that Forest, who has been lieutenant governor for almost eight years, is "a bold new choice for governor." The commercial also argues that Forest, who falsely declared earlier this month that "masks don't work with viruses," will revive the state's economy.
● UT-Gov: On Monday, former Gov. Jon Huntsman finally ruled out the possibility that he might wage a write-in campaign for the general election against Republican nominee Spencer Cox. The announcement came after days of speculation that Huntsman, who narrowly lost the June 30 primary, could continue his bid into the fall. The former governor initially didn't comment on his interest in a write-in effort, and his daughter, Abby Huntsman, didn't dismiss the idea on Friday.
House
● NE-02: Democrat Kara Eastman has released a poll from GQR that gives her a narrow 50-49 edge over Republican Rep. Don Bacon; the sample also shows Joe Biden ahead 51-44 in an Omaha-based seat that Donald Trump carried 48-46 four years ago. The results are similar to a DCCC in-house survey taken just before the May primary that had Eastman and Biden ahead 48-46 and 52-41, respectively.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Here's a recap of Saturday's special election in Louisiana and a preview of Tuesday's special in Texas:
LA-HD-54: Businessman Joseph Orgeron took 55% of the vote in this six-way, all-GOP election to avoid a runoff and win this seat outright. Fellow businessman James Cantrelle was the runner-up with 20%, while 2019 state House candidate Donny Lerille was third with 11%. None of the other three candidates managed to crack double digits.
Notably, Orgeron is a distant cousin of Ed Orgeron, the head football coach of the reigning national champion LSU Tigers. While the gravelly voiced football coach did not make any endorsements in this race, it's possible Orgeron's sweeping victory over this large field was aided by voters connecting the coach and soon-to-be state representative.
This chamber is now at full strength: Republicans control 68 seats to Democrats’ 35, and two independent members caucus with neither party.
TX-SD-14: This Austin-based district became vacant when former Democratic state Sen. Kirk Watson retired earlier this year to become the dean of the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs. All candidates will compete on one ballot, and if no one takes a majority, a runoff featuring the top two finishers will be held at a later date that has yet to be determined.
Two Democrats, two Republicans, a Libertarian, and an independent are vying for this seat. The Democrats are former Travis County Judge Sarah Eckhardt and state Rep. Eddie Rodriguez, while the GOP contenders are former prosecutor Waller Thomas Burns and former Austin City Council member Don Zimmerman (who ran this truly bizarre ad). Rounding out the field is former Lago Vista City Council member Pat Dixon, a Libertarian, and physician Jeff Ridgeway, who is unafilliated.
This strongly Democratic seat backed Hillary Clinton 66-28 and Barack Obama 60-36. Republicans currently hold a 19-11 advantage in this chamber with just this seat vacant.
Other Races
● Los Angeles County, CA District Attorney: Democratic Rep. Ted Lieu announced over the weekend that he was withdrawing his endorsement of Los Angeles District Attorney Jackie Lacey, saying he'd originally backed the incumbent before he knew that her opponent, former San Francisco District Attorney George Gascón, would run.
Lieu is the third local Democratic congressman who has unendorsed Lacey in the last month. Rep. Alan Lowenthal recently said that he was switching from the incumbent to Gascón, who is challenging her from the left in the November nonpartisan general election. Rep. Adam Schiff also recently retracted his Lacey endorsement, but like Lieu, he is not publicly supporting Gascón.
● NC-AG: North Carolina is arguably the GOP's top pickup opportunity of the five Democratic-held state attorney general offices on the ballot this fall (Republicans are also defending five), but Democratic incumbent Josh Stein holds a huge fundraising edge over Republican foe Jim O'Neill. Stein outpaced O'Neill, who serves as Forsyth County district attorney, $2 million to $264,000 during the period covering Feb. 16 through June 30. Stein also ended last month with a massive $5.8 million to $116,000 cash-on-hand lead.
Ad Roundup
