The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● AR-02: Hendrix College, polling on behalf of Talk Business, finds Republican Rep. French Hill leading Democrat Joyce Elliott by just a 48-46 margin. This survey, which is the first we've seen here, also finds Joe Biden up 49-45 in a Little Rock-area seat that Donald Trump took 52-42 four years ago.
Observers were quick to speculate that, because Hendrix's June statewide poll found Trump up just 47-45 in a state that has become extremely red over the last decade, this survey might be too friendly to Elliott. However, it's worth noting that in 2018, Hendrix's mid-October poll of the 2nd District actually underestimated Team Blue: The college showed Hill beating Democrat Clarke Tucker 52-40 a little less than three weeks before the incumbent prevailed by a fairly modest 52-46 margin.
However, no major outside groups on either side have reserved any ad time here, so at least for now, the national parties aren't acting like this contest is tight. Hill, though, seems to be taking Elliott seriously, since he recently launched a spot accusing her of voting to raise taxes numerous times in the legislature, including on cell phones.
Campaign Action
Elliott quickly aired a response ad where the narrator says, "This bill was written by a Republican and passed almost unanimously, because it funded 911 call centers and had the support of basically every person in law enforcement in the state of Arkansas." She concludes that Elliott "doesn't care if a good idea comes from a Republican or a Democrat, just as long as it puts Arkansas first."
Primary Night
● Primary Night: The Primary Season Is About to Be Dover: Our last primary of 2020 will take place on Tuesday when voting concludes in Delaware; Louisiana will hold its all-party primaries on Nov. 3, but let's just say that the nation's eyes will be trained elsewhere that evening. The polls close at 8 PM ET, and Daily Kos Elections will have an open thread.
We're not expecting much action out of the First State. Democratic Sen. Chris Coons faces a primary challenge from the left from businesswoman Jessica Scarane, but she never raised much money or attracted serious outside support. Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as Safe Democratic.
Senate
● GA-Sen-A: The Democratic group Senate Majority PAC is running another commercial hitting stock trades Republican Sen. David Perdue made in the leadup to the pandemic. "The day the Senate got a private briefing on the coronavirus, Perdue bought stock in a maker of masks and gloves," the narrator says, "Then stock in a vaccine manufacturer. And winds up buying and dumping up to $14 million dollars in stock."
Perdue, like homestate colleague Kelly Loeffler, has argued that these trades were made by advisers who acted independently. Perdue has also said that he was not part of the briefing the ad mentions.
● NC-Sen: The progressive group End Citizens United has launched a new $2 million ad campaign against Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. "Tillis took thousands from drug companies," the narrator says in its TV spot, "And voted to let them raise prices on hundreds of drugs." The commercial continues, "Tillis took money from insurance companies. And voted to let them deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions."
On the other side, we have our first downballot ad in a long time from American Crossroads, which was once one of the most prominent groups on the right but went dormant for years. The PAC, which is now run by allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, uses its opening TV spot to argue that Democrat Cal Cunningham would do away with the filibuster if elected.
That's not a subject that appears in TV ads much, and indeed, Crossroads' narrator doesn't actually say the word "filibuster." Instead, she argues that liberal leaders "know Cunningham's supports changing the rules so they can jam through their government-run health care scheme that could force hospitals to close."
Republicans have been running commercials in races across the county that have argued that Democrats would endanger hospitals. PoliticFact's Victoria Knight took a look last month at a NRSC commercial in Montana that made this claim and explained that it comes from a 2019 study by the consulting firm Navigant that was paid for by "a health industry coalition including drugmakers, insurance companies and private hospitals."
Knight wrote of the Navigant study, which this Crossroads ad also cites, "It assumes the implementation of a public option for health insurance would lead to lower reimbursement rates and cause rural hospitals to close. Experts say this conclusion is difficult to draw without knowing who would be covered by the public option and how it would pay providers." A public health expert also said that the public option, which Cunningham supports, would instead "benefit rural hospitals, since getting virtually nothing from uninsured patients is worse than getting a reasonably good rate from the public option."
● Polls:
- AZ-Sen: YouGov for CBS: Mark Kelly (D): 49, Martha McSally (R-inc): 42 (47-44 Biden) (July: 46-42 Kelly)
- CO-Sen: Global Strategy Group (D) for ProgressNow Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D): 52, Cory Gardner (R-inc): 42 (50-39 Biden)
- MN-Sen: Siena for the New York Times: Tina Smith (D-inc): 49, Jason Smith (R): 40 (50-41 Biden)
- MN-Sen: YouGov for CBS: Smith (D-inc): 47, Lewis (R): 40 (50-41 Biden)
House
● MO-02: Republican Rep. Ann Wagner's new commercial falsely argues that Democrat Jill Schupp is pushing a healthcare plan that even Joe Biden is against, which is a tactic a few other House Republicans have tried in their advertising in seats that Donald Trump either lost in 2016 or where he looks weak this time around.
The narrator insists that when it comes to a healthcare bill that Schupp proposed in the legislature, "Even Joe Biden opposes it." The audience then sees a clip of Biden declaring, "Medicare for All is absolutely preposterous." Of course, as the Washington Post's Dave Weigel points out, Biden wasn't talking about Schupp's bill at all, or actually trashing the idea of Medicare For All. Instead, Biden was talking about the cost estimate from a different proposal from his then-primary rival, Bernie Sanders.
● NY-11: Freshman Democratic Rep. Max Rose uses his new commercial to frame the contest between himself and Republican Nicole Malliotakis as a choice between a veteran and a politician controlled by the special interests that are hurting his constituents. "When Nicole Malliotakis was learning how to lie in Albany, I was carrying an M4 in Afghanistan," Rose declares, "And when I bled for my country, she was making blood money off the opioid companies that kill our kids—then fought to give them a tax cut paid for by raising your property taxes."
Rose then pushes back on attacks by Malliotakis and NRCC that claimed he'd put public safety at risk, with the congressman saying that "of course I'd never defund the police." He concludes, "I approve this message, because if you want to know why Nicole's lying about me, just look at all the ways she's been screwing you over."
● NY-22: The DCCC has another commercial tying Republican Claudia Tenney to the cable company Spectrum, which has raised rates on local providers multiple times.
The narrator says of Tenney, "She took thousands from Spectrum and voted to give them billions in tax breaks." The rest of the ad focuses on healthcare, with the ad declaring, "And Tenney took over a hundred fifty thousand from the insurance industry and voted to let them gut coverage for people with pre-existing conditions—which could have allowed discrimination against people who've suffered from the Coronavirus."
● OK-05: Freshman Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn has publicized a poll from Normington Petts that finds her leading Republican Stephanie Bice 52-44; the release did not include presidential numbers.
We've seen just two other surveys from this Oklahoma City-based seat. The DCCC conducted a GQR Research poll in early August, weeks before Bice wrapped up the Republican nomination, that had Horn ahead 51-46; that sample also gave Donald Trump just a 48-47 edge in a district he'd carried 53-40 four years ago. Last week, SoonerPoll also released a survey for News9 that had Bice ahead 45-44, and it did not ask about the presidential race.
● TX-07: Freshman Democratic Rep. Lizzie Fletcher is using her first negative ad to go after Republican Wesley Hunt, who has been running commercials arguing that he'd protect people with pre-existing conditions, on healthcare.
Several people tell the audience that, even though a third of Texans have a pre-existing condition, "Wesley Hunt wants to help Donald Trump repeal the Affordable Care Act. He would let insurance companies deny coverage for people with pre-existing conditions." They continue, "Even during a pandemic, Wesley Hunt would take away our health care."
● TX-21: Democrat Wendy Davis' new commercial takes freshman Republican Rep. Chip Roy to task for his many comments playing down the pandemic.
The spot stars a COVID survivor identified as Frances S., who tells the audience, "It felt like a cement truck on my chest. I was in ICU for two weeks." She continues, "Chip Roy says the experts are wrong, the numbers are exaggerated, that it's not dangerous for kids. Those words are dangerous." Frances adds, "He even said that the virus will suddenly be gone after the election. One thing that will be gone after the election is you, Mr. Roy."
● TX-24: The Democratic group House Majority PAC has the first TV spot we've seen from anyone for the general election, and the PAC says it's part of a $925,000 buy. The narrator begins by that, when Republican Beth Van Duyne was mayor of Irving, the city "lost the [Dallas] Cowboys," and adds, "If Van Duyne gets to Congress, we could lose a lot more."
The rest of the ad argues, "Van Duyne supports a plan that would gut protections for pre-existing conditions like asthma, cancer and even coronavirus," and that she'd cut taxes for the rich while raising them on the middle class.
● TX-25: Democrat Julie Oliver is out with a poll from EMC Research that finds her trailing Republican Rep. Roger Williams just 43-41 in a contest that hasn't attracted much national attention yet, while Libertarian Bill Kelsey grabs 8%. The sample also gave Donald Trump a small 49-45 lead in a seat he took 55-40 in 2016.
We've seen two other surveys of this gerrymandered district, which includes part of Austin and rural areas north toward Dallas-Fort Worth. A July in-house poll for the DCCC, which seemed to astonish the committee itself, found Williams ahead by the same 45-43 margin that EMC now shows as Joe Biden edged out Trump 47-46. (Kelsey took 5%.) Last week, Williams' campaign released its own numbers from Remington Research that showed the incumbent up 52-40, though it did not test Kelsey; the release also did not include presidential numbers.
● UT-04: RMG Research's new poll for the Deseret News and University of Utah finds freshman Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams leading Republican Burgess Owens 45-41, which is an improvement from the 35-35 tie the firm found in early August.
The Deseret News' story did not include presidential numbers, though the paper may be releasing them later. Last month, for example, the paper published a story with RMG's presidential results by congressional district a few days after its report on the congressional survey; the 4th District sample favored Trump 45-35 a month ago.
McAdams is also up with a new commercial going after Owens for favoring nuclear testing in Utah. The audience hears audio of an interviewer asking Owens, "So Burgess, in Congress will you support Trump's effort to resume testing here in Utah?" to which the candidate replies, "Absolutely."
That statement is followed by a mushroom cloud as the narrator quotes a column from The Salt Lake Tribune saying, "Owens will put Trump's whims ahead of Utah's health." The ad goes back to Owens, who is heard saying, "I would support everything that President Trump is doing in that arena."
● VA-07: Freshman Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger's new ad goes after Republican Nick Freitas for taking $500,000 from "an out-of-state billionaire who gave hundreds of thousands to accused child predator Roy Moore."
That line, which is the first time we can recall anyone running a TV spot about Moore outside of his home state of Alabama, is a reference to conservative mega donor Richard Uihlein, who contributed $500,000 last year to Freitas' successful write-in campaign to keep his seat in the state House. Uihlein also donated to a super PAC supporting Moore's failed 2017 Senate campaign even after multiple women accused Moore of preying on them when they were teenagers.
Ad roundup
