Before the 9/29 presidential debate, I am placing my bet on Trump losing the election and leaving office on the customary date and time. Furthermore, while every “i” will not be dotted and “t”s will go uncrossed, I believe election night will leave the writing on the wall to say Trump has lost.
It is still hard work to bring in a good harvest. This election night bet is predicated on the continuing substantial efforts by activists across the country to turn out and protect the vote. There will be MAGA-Q nonsense plenty. Lawsuits will fly in battleground states. But we will not get to faithless or state-legislature appointed electors. Trump will not jackboot his way to a second term, but will sulk away from his first.
I don’t say this because of his taxes, though the New York Times disclosures are a firm pull on the thread of his unraveling.
Ending Trump’s reign has never been a difficult task if you look at the votes. He only won by 78,000 votes across three states. Most of America was already against Trump and he has gained little over what he has lost since then. But now as voters finally fully turn to the election, Trump has transgressed in ways people can understand clearly. Not some obscure Russia scandal, but slow mail, power-grabbing and tax-dodging
Why will enough voters in enough states turn against him? A review.
The Reasons
The beginning of Trump’s end was Joe Biden winning nomination. Hillary Clinton had too much to overcome, with a country programmed to hate her for decades and straight-up structural sexism against her throughout the campaign. Democrats nominating a relatable, compassionate, moderate grandfather gave the Republicans little to split Trump opposition with.
COVID-19 accelerated Trump’s demise. A skilled fascist would have taken advantage of a plague from a foreign country. Instead, Trump simply failed to deliver any meaningful relief and presented himself as a man out of his depth with little regard for human life. But COVID was not enough--Trump could have rode that out because, while tragic, there were no images of death and destruction like 9/11 so people could set aside his failures because the tragedy is so diffuse.
The real hard turn against Trump stems from his attack on the United States Postal Service. People like their letter carriers and post offices. The USPS is a basic service everyone takes for granted, like breathing. The crass politics of DeJoy’s attacks that threatened grandma’s medicine as well as our right to vote displayed Trump’s true nature to many who never looked that hard before. The groundswell of support for postal workers by average Americans was a hopeful sign.
Followed by the obscene, near-gleeful rush to fill the Ruth Bader-Ginsberg Supreme Court vacancy. This crass hypocrisy certainly offended many. The outright lie of not appointing four years ago but appointing now shows voters that Republicans connected to Trump are simply not trust-worthy. If they lied about SCOTUS appointments, what other lies do they tell now?
Right after that, Trump’s refusal to agree on a peaceful transition. This was certainly startling to undecided voters. Trump said as much four years ago when he would not commit to accepting the election results. He will not commit to anything that implies a loss. But a refusal to follow the most basic of traditions gives many people pause.
Then came the tax reveal to demolish his billionaire myth. He is no successful businessman and that is why he hid his taxes. Trump’s continuing refusal to release documents confirms the truth of the New York Times’ story. Trump owes money to mysterious banks worldwide while dodging income tax at home.
The End
All this will turn enough people against Trump that by election night, especially if Ohio turns as the recent Fox poll shows, the race will be unwinnable for him. Ohio processes absentee votes as they come in and report counts on election night. If Ohio comes out badly, the other battlegrounds will follow as their votes are counted. Trump, I believe, would have to successfully invalidate an insurmountable number of votes to prevail.
Clear, easy to understand transgressions throughout 2020 will be Trump’s end.
That is my bet. I have faith in the work of activists across the country who will press forward to promote and protect the vote. I have faith in the American electorate who will understand en masse what a criminal Trump truly is.
Afterwards, we do have to worry about a transition rife with burn barrels and shredding machines.