For all of the pardons Trump churned out in his waning hours as president, the most notable pardons are the ones he DIDN’T issue. Mother Mags already mentioned two of them—Republican congressmen Paul Gosar and Andy Biggs. They were worried enough about their legal exposure for the events of January 6 that they asked Trump for a pardon. But Trump said no.
It didn’t come without some prodding. On Saturday, two of Trump’s legal advisers, Pat Cipollone and Eric Herschmann, warned him that pardoning himself and his family would put him in great legal danger. But they had a very specific warning against pardoning Gosar and Biggs.
So, too, was Trump warned that pardons for Republican lawmakers who had sought them for their role in the Capitol insurrection would anger the very Senate Republicans who will determine his fate in an upcoming impeachment trial.
Why would Cipollone and Herschmann give such advice if they knew Trump was leaving office in but five days’ time? Well, in all likelihood it's because they know that even with Trump as an ex-president, the Senate would still have the right to convict him in an impeachment trial—and subsequently ban him from ever holding office again. And by deciding against pardoning Gosar and Biggs, Trump appears to have come to this realization as well.
That’s a big deal. After all, knowing what we know about Trump, we would have expected him to basically say “F it” and issue the pardons anyway. But if he didn’t do so, we can only assume that he knows that if he did pardon them, the Trump 2024 campaign would be all but over. Granted, his email vendor, online store provider, and payments processor have cut him off. But a Trump pardon would likely take a 2024 campaign off life support. After all, there are already at least 52 votes to convict—all of the Dems plus Romney and Sasse. At most, there are 54 if you add Murkowski and Collins.
Lindsey Graham has pressed for tossing out the article of impeachment as soon as it reaches the Senate.
But Texas law professor Stephen Vladeck disagrees. He notes that of the eight people who have been convicted and removed by the Senate—all judges—only three have been disqualified from ever holding office again. To Vladeck’s mind, this shows that a vote to disqualify someone from holding federal office is “a vote about a former (as opposed to current) officer.”
Apparently Cipollone and Herschman know this too—and Trump agrees.