Voters ten years ago rejected holding a constitutional convention 69-31, but this contest has attracted far more attention especially now that the U.S. Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade. The Alaska Supreme Court in 1997 recognized that the state's governing document protects the right to an abortion, and since it takes two-thirds of both the state House and Senate to put a constitutional amendment proposal on the ballot, it would be tough for anti-abortion forces to undo that ruling under the current system. Indeed, while two state Senate committees last year advanced an anti-choice amendment, it failed to receive a floor vote in either chamber.
However, abortion isn't the only issue ahead of next month's vote. Convention YES, the group backing a convention, has argued that change is needed because of gridlock in state government. Senate Republicans and their one Democratic ally currently hold a 14-6 supermajority while the House is run by a coalition of Democrats, independents, and a few Republicans, and the two chambers have come into conflict a number of times in recent years.
Perhaps the most high-profile source of tension has been over how much money to deal out from the Permanent Fund dividend, the payment that goes to people who have lived in Alaska for a full year and plan to remain indefinitely. Former Lt. Gov. Craig Campbell, who chairs Convention YES, declared last month, "Our group will emphasize the fact that in the last decade the execution of the Legislature, the process of the Permanent Fund, the activities of the court system, the failure of the education system, have all created an environment where we need to go back and have a constitutional convention."
Campbell in particular has also taken an interest in making it easier for conservatives to get their favored judges appointed. Currently, a nonpartisan body nominates several contenders and leaves the governor to choose between them, which limits the influence of Dunleavy and any likeminded chief executives.
Convention YES has in its corner the conservative Alaska Family Council, and several GOP legislators as well as the Alaska Independence Party, which wants a vote on whether the state should secede from the United States. The state GOP, though, failed to pass a motion in July to back the "yes" side.
The chair of the rival and far better funded Defend Our Constitution, former Attorney General Bruce Botelho, meanwhile likewise argued, "We just don't know what is in Pandora's box and there's no reason to open it." The group has the backing of a number of organizations and individuals who oppose a convention for diverse reasons including the state Democratic Party, the Alaska Libertarian Party, the Alaska Miners Association, labor groups, the state teachers union, Native leaders, and Vic Fischer, who is the only surviving delegate from the state's only convention in 1955, which was a few years before statehood itself.
Democrats outside Alaska have also taken an interest in this referendum. Defend Our Constitution has hauled in $2.8 million through the first week of October, with much of that coming from the deep-pocketed progressive group Sixteen Thirty Fund and the National Education Association. Bloomberg writes that the "no" campaign has used its resources to run commercials that warn that a "risky" convention could endanger "Alaskans' rights to hunting and fishing, privacy, public land access, and guns." Convention YES, by contrast, has raised just $21,000 so far.
If "yes" overcomes this financial deficit next month, voters would likely select delegates in 2024 for the convention. The draft constitution would need to be approved in a statewide referendum before it could go into effect, a campaign that would likely take place in 2026.
Two other states, Missouri and New Hampshire, also have constitutional convention questions on their ballots, but those elections have attracted far less attention. In Missouri, where the GOP state government has passed a near-total abortion ban, progressives are the ones urging a "yes" vote, but there's been little organized activity on either side. The New Hampshire campaign, meanwhile, has been an even more low-profile affair.
P.S. A total of 14 states have constitutional convention questions automatically appear on the ballot after a set number of years. Rhode Island, which is one of those states, was the last to vote "yes" in 1984, and voters two years later approved what remains America's youngest state constitution.
The Downballot
● Abortion has been the number one topic for campaign ads this year, so we're talking with veteran ad maker Kelly Grace Gibson, the founder of the women-led Stronger Than Comms, about how Democrats are pressing their advantage on this week's edition of The Downballot. Gibson walks us through the nuts and bolts of how ads actually get made; how Democrats have shown unusual message discipline on abortion while simultaneously tailoring their messages to different audiences; and why she has hope for some progressive candidates and ballot measures even in difficult states.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also get medieval on the traditional media for its appalling display of ableism in the wake of John Fetterman's recent NBC interview; recap the absolutely wild goings-on in Los Angeles, where City Council President Nury Martinez just resigned after a racist tirade was caught on tape; dive into the unexpectedly close race for governor in Oklahoma; and highlight a brand-new database from Daily Kos Elections showing how media markets and congressional districts overlap.
We're almost at 1,000 subscribers on Apple Podcasts, so we'd love it if you'd subscribe to The Downballot there. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern Time. New episodes every Thursday morning!
3Q Fundraising
- WA-Sen: Tiffany Smiley (R): $6 million raised, $2.5 million cash-on-hand
- NM-Gov: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-inc): $1.12 million raised (Sept. 6-Oct. 3), $1.7 million cash-on-hand; Mark Ronchetti (R): $1.45 million raised (Sept. 6-Oct. 3), $2.5 million cash-on-hand
- MI-10: John James (R): $1.4 million raised, $3 million cash-on-hand
- MN-02: Angie Craig (D-inc): $1.75 million raised, $3 million cash-on-hand
- VA-02: Elaine Luria (D-inc): $2.85 million raised
Senate
● AK-Sen: While Donald Trump ranted Monday that "[t]he Old Broken Crow, Mitchell McConnell, is authorizing $9 Million Dollars to be spent in order to beat a great Republican," Kelly Tshibaka, rather than target Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona, McConnell's Senate Leadership Fund is continuing to air ads in Alaska against Tshibaka. SLF, which is defending Republican incumbent Lisa Murkowski in the instant-runoff general election, uses its latest ad to once again accuse Tshibaka "ripping off Alaska taxpayers," a theme that it's relied on in several of its spots.
Some of these allegations come from a 2011 internal report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, where Tshibaka worked at the time. The document said that she put down almost 600 "questionable" work hours, which SLF's narrator says she instead put to use "to go running."
Tshibaka's campaign in turn denounced these as false allegations, arguing, "Kelly Tshibaka's job was to keep federal employees honest, and some of them filed complaints against her in retaliation." She's also echoed Trump in claiming she's "been exonerated from every federal investigation they've ever done," though the Anchorage Daily News' Iris Samuels says she's never presented any documentation to prove this.
SLF also declares that Tshibaka "charged taxpayers $81,000 to move," which is how much money the state paid in 2019 for her to return to Alaska to work in Gov. Mike Dunleavy's administration. The candidate has defended herself on that front too, saying the cost was so high because she was required to go with the least-expensive option and "[i]f you use the lowest vendor, you're likely going to get a fraudulent vendor." Tshibaka has argued that this resulted in "us losing money as a state" and that she submitted a report to the state attorney general, but Samuels also writes, "No such documentation has been made publicly available."
SLF initially booked $7 million in ad time to help Murkowski, though it cut $1.7 million in August because the senator "is in a very strong position." OpenSecrets reports that as of Wednesday, SLF has spent $4.3 million here, while another super PAC called Alaskans for L.I.S.A has dropped $3.3 million. (Its abbreviation nominally stands for "Leadership In a Strong Alaska.") By contrast, outside groups have spent a mere $140,000 on Tshibaka's side.
● AZ-Sen: Billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel still hasn't come to Republican Blake Masters' rescue in the three weeks since the Senate Leadership Fund axed its remaining $9.6 million reservation, but Axios reports that this may change―if SLF commits to returning to the state. The site writes, "Under the proposed arrangement, Thiel and SLF would together spend at least $10 million to boost Masters — with Thiel responsible for half of the final figure that the two sides agree on." SLF, says Axios, is "open to the idea but haven't yet raised the funds."
● PA-Sen: NBC reports that American Crossroads, which was once one of the most prominent super PACs on the right but largely went dormant until last cycle, will spend $4.1 million against Democrat John Fetterman. This appears to be its first independent expenditure of 2022.
● UT-Sen: Republican incumbent Mike Lee on Tuesday went on Fox News and, in the words of the Deseret News, "pleaded" for homestate colleague Mitt Romney to endorse him and for the Romney family to fund his effort to fend off independent Evan McMullin. "It's not too late, Mitt. You can join the party," said Lee, who did not back Romney's 2018 bid. Romney, for his part, has explained that he's stayed neutral because both candidates are his friends, which makes him the one Republican senator who hasn't endorsed Lee.
When Tucker Carlson asked why Lee hadn't directly asked his fellow for help, he responded, "I've asked him … I'm asking him right here again tonight, right now." The incumbent continued, "Please get on board. Help me win reelection. Help us do that. You can get your entire family to donate to me."
Carlson, for his part, spent most of his time making fun of his party's 2012 presidential nominee, and Fox's most prominent viewer followed suit the next day. "McMuffin does not represent the values of Utah," Donald Trump wrote of Lee's opponent, continuing, "but neither, as you will see in two years, does Mitt Romney, who refuses to endorse his fellow Republican Senator, Mike Lee."
● WI-Sen, WI-Gov: Marquette Law School's new Wisconsin survey finds Republican Sen. Ron Johnson edging out Democrat Mandela Barnes 49-47 among respondents who are "absolutely certain or very likely to vote," while Democratic Gov. Tony Evers posts a similar 47-44 advantage over GOP foe Tim Michels. The school, though, promoted some more Republican-friendly numbers as the takeaway toplines from its poll, finding Johnson and Evers ahed 52-46 and 47-46, respectively, with those "absolutely certain to vote only."
That's a very narrow way of defining the probable November electorate, though. The vast majority of pollsters prefer to emphasize "likely voter" models, and Marquette's first set of numbers comes much closer to doing so than its second. Estimating voter turnout is an inherently difficult task, and relying on self-reported propensity isn't without problems. But only including data from definite voters risks leaving out too many people who are simply less certain about their plans four weeks from now.
Marquette employed these models last month as well, though it didn't find Republicans more committed to turning out back then. In September, Johnson posted an identical 49-47 edge among "absolutely certain" and "likely" voters, while Evers was ahead 45-44 with this group. The senator, by contrast, had a 1-point edge with definite voters while Evers actually had a larger 3-point advantage with this cohort.
What all the polls agree on, though, is that independent Joan Beglinger's lingering presence on the ballot could make a difference in the race for governor even though she dropped out a month ago and endorsed Michels. Beglinger's zombie campaign snags 4% among certain and likely voters, which is down slightly from her 6% showing last month.
● Polls:
GA-Sen: University of Georgia for local media: Raphael Warnock (D-inc): 46, Herschel Walker (R): 43, Chase Oliver (L): 4 (Sept.: 46-44 Walker)
GA-Sen: Quinnipiac University: Warnock (D-inc): 52, Walker (R): 45 (Sept.: 52-46 Warnock)
GA-Sen: Moore Information (R) for Herschel Walker: Walker (R): 46, Warnock (D-inc): 44, Oliver (L): 4 (June: 47-47 tie)
NC-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) for Carolina Forward: Ted Budd (R): 46, Cheri Beasley (D): 45 (Aug.: 42-41 Beasley)
NH-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) for AARP: Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 52, Don Bolduc (R): 45
NV-Sen: Suffolk University for USA Today: Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc): 46, Adam Laxalt (R): 44 (Aug.: 45-38 Cortez Masto)
GA-Sen: Quinnipiac, unlike the other two pollsters, once again did not include Oliver as an option and instead asked respondents if they'd favor an unnamed "someone else."
NV-Sen: This is the first poll we've seen since late August to give Cortez Masto the edge, though no reliable firm in the intervening time has shown Laxalt ahead by more than 3 points. Bolts' Quinn Yeargain notes that in both the 2016 and 2018 Senate races, Cortez Masto and fellow Democrat Jacky Rosen went through a similar polling rough patch in late September and early October only to ultimately pull ahead and win.
Governors
● AK-Gov: The Associated Press has rounded up the fundraising numbers, which cover the period spanning Aug. 7 to Oct. 7, for all four candidates competing in the instant-runoff contest:
- Mike Dunleavy (R-inc): $600,000 raised, $920,000 cash-on-hand
- Bill Walker (I): $460,000 raised, $470,000 cash-on-hand
- Les Gara (D): $400,000 raised, $520,000 cash-on-hand
- Charlie Pierce (R): $8,000 raised, $6,000 cash-on-hand
The candidates, unlike in past cycles, are allowed to accept unlimited donations because a federal court last year struck down a 2006 ballot measure that capped donations at $500 a year and the legislature adjourned this spring without adopting a new law. Dunleavy himself took in $100,000 from his brother, while a supporter named Robert Penney threw down the same amount.
● NV-Gov: The Nevada Independent reports that Everytown for Gun Safety will spend $3.6 million against Republican Joe Lombardo.
● OK-Gov: Republican incumbent Kevin Stitt is airing his first negative ad against Democrat Joy Hofmeister, an offensive that comes as the governor has been on the receiving end of huge amounts of negative spending from outside groups. The spot, like GOP attacks of yesteryear, links Stitt's opponent to national Democrats, with the narrator arguing Hofmeister would aid Biden in "crushing the oil and gas industry."
Stitt may have extra incentive to win re-election because, as News 4 reports, he's spent his entire tenure "working on plans to build a lavish, new, private Governor's mansion" and that construction will begin in 2023. The station adds that, when it contacted a dozen GOP lawmakers to ask about their thoughts, not one knew about Stitt's initiative.
The only one who would comment on the record was state Rep. Logan Phillips, who lost renomination earlier this year to a Stitt-backed candidate. Phillips didn't hide his disgust for his intra-party adversary, saying, "That is absolutely insane. It just shows exactly how out of touch this governor is with the current situation in Oklahoma." He continued, "We have schools that were held to 0% increase, and now he's going to build a mansion because the mansion is not fancy enough for him. That is inappropriate."
● Polls:
GA-Gov: University of Georgia for local media: Brian Kemp (R-inc): 51, Stacey Abrams (D): 41, Shane Hazel (L): 2 (Sept.: 50-42 Kemp)
GA-Gov: Quinnipiac University: Kemp (R-inc): 50, Abrams (D): 49 (Sept.: 50-48 Kemp)
NH-Gov: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) for AARP: Chris Sununu (R-inc): 55, Tom Sherman (D): 41
NV-Gov: Suffolk University for USA Today: Joe Lombardo (R): 44, Steve Sisolak (D-inc): 43, Ed Bridges (IAP): 3 (Aug.: 43-40 Sisolak)
TX-Gov: Marist College: Greg Abbott (R-inc): 49, Beto O’Rourke (D): 45
GA-Gov: Quinnipiac has given Abrams some of her best numbers since its opening poll in June, and that remains the case going into the final month of the campaign.
TX-Gov: These are the best numbers we’ve seen for O’Rourke in a month, though Marist shows him doing worse “among those who say they definitely plan to vote.” (See our WI-Sen, WI-Gov item for more on that distinction.)
Newly released campaign finance numbers also show that O’Rourke finished Sept. 29 with a small $16.47 million to $16.35 million cash-on-hand advantage, though Abbott’s team says they “purchased approximately $30 million in pre-paid advertising” at some point in the campaign.
House
● CO-03: Democrat Adam Frisch has publicized an endorsement from Republican state Sen. Don Coram, a moderate who lost June’s primary 66-34 to far-right Rep. Lauren Boebert.
● CT-05: NBC reports that the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund has reserved an additional $1.1 million to oust Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes in what’s already the most competitive House race in the Nutmeg State in a decade. CLF so far has spent $2.1 million to help Republican George Logan in this northwestern Connecticut seat, which would have backed Biden 55-44, while the DCCC and House Majority together have deployed $1.9 million.
● NC-13: The DCCC’s newest spot against Republican Bo Hines uses footage of him dubbing himself a “MAGA warrior” before the narrator faults him for siding “with Trump to defund the FBI,” which aren’t the type of attacks we’ve seen Democrats use much in swingy seats like this one. Biden would have won this constituency in the southern Raleigh suburbs only 50-48, but Team Blue evidently believes Trump is toxic here: The ad concludes, “Bo Hines: Right for Trump, wrong for us.”
● NJ-07: The Congressional Leadership Fund’s newest ad against Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski attacks him for failing to disclose millions in stock trades during the beginning of the pandemic, a story that attracted plenty of attention when it broke last year. The incumbent called what happened an “oversight,” while his broker said that all trades were made “without Congressman Malinowski's input or prior knowledge.” The House Ethics Committee has an open inquiry into the matter, and its internal rules prohibit it from releasing any decisions within 60 days of the election.
Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who like Malinowski was elected during the 2018 blue wave, went on to author a bill that would prevent members of Congress or their families from trading individual stocks, but party leaders did not hold a vote on it before the House adjourned ahead of the elections.
● OH-09: While national Republicans cut J.R. Majewski loose after Air Force records show he lied about serving in Afghanistan, House Majority PAC is not acting like they think he’s doomed yet. HMP is airing a new commercial over the story that includes a news clip where the speaker says, “They call that stolen valor when people do that, it’s a shameful thing to do.”
● Polls:
FL-13: David Binder Research (D): Eric Lynn (D): 47, Anna Paulina Luna (R): 47 (June: 45-43 Lynn)
RI-02: Mellman Group (D) for Seth Magaziner: Allan Fung (R): 43, Seth Magaziner (D): 40, William Gilbert (M): 5
FL-13: David Binder Research’s last poll was conducted for Progress Pinellas, a PAC funded by Lynn’s cousin, but there’s no word if it has the same client this time.
Attorneys General and Secretaries of State
● GA-AG, GA-SoS: The University of Georgia once again finds two downballot Republicans well ahead in its newest media survey:
GA-AG: Chris Carr (R-inc): 47, Jen Jordan (D): 39 (Sept.: 45-35 Carr)
GA-SoS: Brad Raffensperger (R-inc): 48, Bee Nguyen (D): 34 (Sept.: 50-31 Raffensperger)
Last week, SurveyUSA showed Carr and Raffensperger ahead only 40-36 and 39-36, respectively.
● ID-AG: Democrat Tom Arkoosh this week unveiled endorsements from nearly 50 state Republicans including former Gov. Phil Batt, who left office in 1999. Arkoosh faces former Rep. Raúl Labrador, an old tea party favorite who ousted incumbent five-term Attorney General Lawrence Wasden in the May primary, in a dark red state where Democrats last won statewide office in 2002.
Other Races
● Los Angeles, CA City Council: Former City Council President Nury Martinez announced Wednesday that she would resign from office, a move that comes one day after the Biden White House urged her to quit over a leaked 2021 recording where she made bigoted comments against numerous groups. Councilmembers Kevin de León and Gil Cedillo, who were also part of that infamous conversation with Martinez, have yet to heed numerous calls for their resignations.
Ad Roundup
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