The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
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Leading Off
● AZ-01: Republican Rep. David Schweikert's battle against Democrat Jevin Hodge attracted very little outside spending until Tuesday, but House Majority PAC has now launched a TV campaign hitting the congressman over the ethics violations that threatened to derail his career both in 2020 and in this year's primary.
It's not clear yet how much the super PAC is spending, though HMP booked at least $6 million in TV time in the Phoenix media market in March: While it's spent about $2 million to air ads in another Phoenix-based district, the 4th, it still has a sizable reservation left to draw on for advertising in either the 1st or 2nd.
The narrator opens, "First class flights, fancy dinners in D.C., a Super Bowl weekend getaway. Career politician David Schweikert admitted to 11 ethics violations, including using taxpayer dollars and campaign funds on luxuries like these." The rest of the spot touts Hodge as a bipartisan business leader who will "put the middle class over first class."
Schweikert back in 2020 did indeed admit to 11 different violations of congressional rules and campaign finance laws, agree to pay a $50,000 fine, and accept a formal reprimand in a deal with the bipartisan House Ethics Committee to conclude its two-year-long investigation of the congressman. However, while Democrats hoped that this scandal would drag Schweikert down in the old 6th District, the incumbent turned back a well-funded challenge from Democrat Hiral Tipirneni 52-48 as Trump was carrying the seat by that same margin.
Schweikert this year is seeking re-election in a redrawn constituency in northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale, now numbered the 1st District, that's a bit bluer at 50-49 Biden. However, Schweikert had more immediate worries during the first seven months of the year as he fought to turn back a primary challenge from Elijah Norton, a wealthy businessman who didn't hesitate to attack his ethics.
One memorable Norton spot featured Schweikert's former campaign treasurer telling the audience the incumbent "reported a fraudulent $100,000 loan, $279,000 in illegal contributions, and more than $500,000 missing. Then he blamed his staff. He lied to us." Schweikert responded by circulating mailers showing the challenger and a male friend with the caption, "Elijah Norton isn't being straight with you." Schweikert ultimately won renomination 44-33 after an underfunded third candidate took a crucial 23%.
Hodge, who would be Arizona's first Black member of Congress, decisively outraised Schweikert during the third quarter of 2022, and he's run his own commercials about his opponent's scandals. Major outside groups, though, behaved like Schweikert was in solid shape despite his bruising intra-party battle, but HMP's late ad campaign is now putting that assumption to the test.
The Downballot
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Senate
● NH-Sen: Axios reports that the NRSC is wading back into New Hampshire by spending $1 million on a hybrid ad campaign with Republican Don Bolduc, a move that comes after both the NRSC and Senate Leadership Fund canceled all their reservations in the state.
These hybrid ads allow Bolduc and the NRSC to split the costs of the spots as well as take advantage of the lower ad rate that candidates are entitled to under federal law. Bolduc, though, has been one of the Senate GOP's worst fundraisers, so he may not be able to finance many more joint ad campaigns like this.
Meanwhile, SLF's nonprofit affiliate One Nation is continuing to run commercials against Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan, though it's not clear how much it's spending here.
● PA-Sen: Politico reports that two affiliates of the Senate Leadership Fund are booking $6.2 million total to attack Democrat John Fetterman using much of the money that SLF withdrew from New Hampshire last week.
About $3.2 million of this will come from Faith and Power PAC, which SLF set up in 2020 in an unsuccessful attempt to meddle in the Democratic Senate primary and hasn't been seen since, while American Crossroads will make up the balance. It's not clear exactly why SLF is bothering to resurrect Faith and Power especially since its opening ad, which stars Bucks County Sheriff Fred Harran trashing Fetterman on crime, is very similar to the commercials the GOP has been running for months.
● Polls:
AZ-Sen: Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) for The Federalist: Mark Kelly (D-inc): 48, Blake Masters (R): 45, Marc Victor (L): 2
GA-Sen: East Carolina University: Raphael Warnock (D-inc): 49, Herschel Walker (R): 47 (June: 47-47 tie)
NC-Sen: Cygnal (R) for the John Locke Foundation: Ted Budd (R): 47, Cheri Beasley (D): 43, Shannon Bray (L): 2 (Sept.: 44-44 tie)
NV-Sen: BSP Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Univision: Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc): 44, Adam Laxalt (R): 42
OH-Sen: Cygnal (R): J.D. Vance (R): 48, Tim Ryan (D): 44 (Mid-Oct.: 47-43 Vance)
PA-Sen: YouGov for CBS: John Fetterman (D): 51, Mehmet Oz (R): 49 (Sept.: 52-47 Fetterman)
NV-Sen: This survey is the only one in this batch than sampled registered voters rather than likely voters.
Governors
● AZ-Gov: The GOP firm Data Orbital has publicized a survey showing Republican Kari Lake edging out Democrat Katie Hobbs 47-44, but just like in the primary, the pollster did not disclose its connection to Lake's campaign.
Back in late July, the Arizona Republic's Laurie Roberts responded to a Data Orbital survey showing Lake beating intra-party foe Karrin Taylor Robson 43-32 by noting that the company's head, George Khalaf, is the son of Lake's campaign treasurer in a column that dubbed the firm "Lake's unofficial pollster." Lake won two weeks after that survey was finished, though by a considerably smaller 48-43 spread.
● NM-Gov: Republican Mark Ronchetti and the RGA have been airing ads insisting that Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham is to blame for the early prison release of Christopher Beltran, who went on to kill his ex-girlfriend, while Democrats are pushing back by arguing that Beltran got out because of the failures of a Republican district attorney.
Last week, the state Democratic Party organized a press conference at which a former state district attorney, Diane Martwick, blamed Dianna Luce, who is the top prosecutor in the Roswell area, for dismissing a 2019 firearm possession charge against Beltran.
Martwick, who served a neighboring district, declared that Luce's decision to dismiss that gun charge allowed Beltran to receive a "lighter sentence" and also enabled him to obtain the firearm he used to murder his former girlfriend, Domonique Gonzales. Luce says she dismissed the weapons charge after Beltran’s attorney argued that evidence was obtained through an illegal police search, though Martwick insists that she should have referred the case to federal prosecutors.
Beltran, as the Albuquerque Journal explained earlier this month, was charged in 2019 with possessing a firearm while on probation for stealing a car. Both that unprosecuted gun charge, though, and failed drug tests were enough to get Beltran’s probation revoked the following January, and he had more than a year added to his prison sentence as a result.
Beltran was scheduled for parole in October of 2020, but he was let out 12 days early because of an executive order from Lujan Grisham designed to reduce the spread of COVID in prisons, though the state Corrections Department now says that Beltran wouldn’t have been eligible if he’d been convicted on firearms possession. Beltran was soon arrested yet again for parole violations, but he was released five months early in July of 2021 for “good behavior.”
Gonzales was found dead six days later, and Beltran, who was quickly arrested once more, pleaded guilty to second-degree murder last month. A short time afterward, surveillance footage surfaced from before Beltran’s 2021 release in which he called Gonzales and threatened to find her, as well as another call where he talked about getting a gun. Luce has argued these videos should have prevented Beltran from leaving prison, while the Corrections Department says that it was previously unaware of the calls.
In commercials seeking to link Lujan Grisham to Beltran’s crime, Ronchetti featured Gonzales’ grandparents tearfully telling the audience, “The governor absolutely should be held accountable for his early release and feel ashamed.” That spot also utilized the prison audio of Beltran saying, “You don’t want to show me where you’re at … I’ll find you myself. I’ll kick in your [expletive] door by myself.” The RGA has also used Gonzales’ death to go after Lujan Grisham’s COVID prison policies, even though Beltran’s 2021 release wasn’t related to that order.
Lujan Grisham’s allies at the DGA last week ran a responsive ad, though it did not directly mention Beltran. Instead, that spot uses news footage of various media fact-checks on the story to argue that Ronchetti will “say anything to get elected.” The governor herself doesn’t appear to have run any commercials about the Beltran matter yet.
● Polls:
AZ-Gov: Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) for The Federalist: Katie Hobbs (D): 48, Kari Lake (R): 47
GA-Gov: East Carolina University: Brian Kemp (R-inc): 51, Stacey Abrams (D): 44 (June: 51-45 Kemp)
NV-Gov: BSP Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Univision: Steve Sisolak (D-inc): 43, Joe Lombardo (R): 41
OH-Gov: Cygnal (R): Mike DeWine (R-inc): 55, Nan Whaley (D): 37 (Mid-Oct.: 56-35 DeWine)
TX-Gov: BSP Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Univision: Greg Abbott (R-inc): 46, Beto O'Rourke (D): 42
NV-Gov, TX-Gov: Both of these surveys looked at registered voters rather than likely voters.
House
● AZ-02: House Majority PAC is airing its first commercial against Republican Eli Crane in the latest sign that Democrats believe Rep. Tom O'Halleran has a fighting chance in this revamped 53-45 Trump constituency.
HMP's ad, which comes the week after the DCCC also launched its inaugural spot, declares Crane is "promoting reckless conspiracy theories embraced by white supremacists" and wants to outlaw abortion without exceptions "for survivors of rape or incest." The NRCC previously dropped $1.7 million here, though none of that was in October.
● CA-45: House Majority PAC is running a spot focused on gun safety against Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in Vietnamese, which makes this one of the rare examples of an American political commercial that's aired on TV all or mostly in a language other than English or Spanish. The DCCC, though, ran another Vietnamese commercial against Steel last cycle.
● IL-13, OH-09: While other major outside groups have canceled planned TV buys in these two Midwestern seats, House Majority PAC isn’t acting like either race is locked up for the Democrats. HMP is running a spot in Illinois' 13th against Republican Regan Deering weeks after its allies at the DCCC axed its reservations, a move that a spokesperson said was due to the committee’s confidence in Democrat Nikki Budzinski's chances. HMP is also continuing to attack Republican J.R. Majewski weeks after the NRCC abandoned him.
● MN-01: SurveyUSA’s new poll for KSTP shows Republican Rep. Brad Finstad leading Democrat Jeff Ettinger 46-37, with another 6% going to Richard Reisdorf of the Legal Marijuana Now Party in this 54-44 Trump seat. Finstad defeated Ettinger by a surprisingly close 51-47 margin in an August special election contest that took place under similar boundaries.
Attorneys General and Secretaries of State
● Polls:
AZ-AG: Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) for The Federalist: Kris Mayes (D): 45, Abe Hamadeh (R): 42
AZ-SoS: Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) for The Federalist: Adrian Fontes (D): 47, Mark Finchem (R) 42
IA-AG: Selzer & Company for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom Iowa: Tom Miller (D-inc): 49, Brenna Bird (R): 33
AZ-AG, AZ-SoS: This is the first survey we’ve seen giving either Democrat a lead over these election deniers.
IA-AG: An early October survey from the GOP firm Cygnal for the conservative Iowans for Tax Relief had Bird leading Miller, who is seeking a historic 11th term, 46-43.
Judges
● NC Supreme Court: The GOP firm Cygnal’s new survey for the conservative John Locke Foundation finds Republicans Trey Allen and Richard Dietz with identical 49-42 leads over their respective Democratic foes, incumbent Sam Ervin and Lucy Inman, in a cycle where Team Red needs to capture just one seat to take control.
Mayors
● Philadelphia, PA Mayor: City Controller Rebecca Rhynhart announced Tuesday that she was resigning in order to enter next May’s all-important Democratic primary to succeed termed-out Mayor Jim Kenney. The field already includes three former City Council members, Cherelle Parker, Derek Green, and Maria Quiñones-Sánchez, and it will likely expand further in the coming months. Rhynhart, Parker, and Quiñones-Sánchez would each be the first woman to lead the city.
Rhynhart, who previously served in the administrations of former Mayor Michael Nutter and Kenney, rose to prominence during her first campaign in 2017 when she denied renomination to Alan Butkovitz in a 58-41 shocker that dramatically demonstrated how much the city's traditional Democratic machine had declined. Rhynhart has since emerged as a vocal critic of Kenney and the local police’s handling of gun violence, and she released a budget audit last week that found numerous problems in the Police Department.
● San Jose, CA Mayor: The Mercury News reports that outside groups backing Santa Clara County Supervisor Cindy Chavez, who is a longtime union ally, have far outraised City Councilman Matt Mahan’s supporters $3 million to $770,000 through Oct. 21, while Mahan has narrowly outpaced his fellow Democrat $1.6 million to $1.4 million during the contest. A win for Chavez would give San Jose its first labor-aligned mayor in 16 years in a city where local elections often are clashes between unions and business groups; Mahan, by contrast, is supported by termed-out Mayor Sam Liccardo, who is close to business organizations.
The South Bay AFL-CIO Labor Council, which Chavez used to run, is unsurprisingly spending heavily for her, but it’s far from the only major group that’s gotten involved. A group funded by the San Francisco 49ers, who are also heavily involved in the mayoral race in neighboring Santa Clara, is also aiding the supervisor, as are the local police union and several developers. Mahan’s main outside supporters, by contrast, are the California Association of Realtors.
Ad Roundup
