It is still entirely possible, even likely, that the sheer weight of Russian numbers will crush organized Ukrainian resistance in the eastern part of the country, that Kyiv will fall, and that Putin will pull out some Russia-friendly despot to act as his mouthpiece while Ukraine “surrenders” to Russia. Oleg Deripaska is available. and since he played a key role in preventing Ukraine from becoming a NATO member over a decade ago, letting him strut around the ruins of the Ukrainian capitol seems with a fresh medal on the chest seems only fitting.
But that doesn’t mean Russia will win this war. Because to win this fight now, Vladimir Putin would need to invent time travel.
In just three days, Putin has done more damage to Russia than any opponent could manage without uncorking nuclear weapons. He has destroyed the nation’s economy — not just for the short term, but likely over a span of many years. He has hastened the severing of dependence on Russian oil and gas that had built up decades and with investments totaling in the hundreds of billions. He’s made sure that every financial firm, tech company, bank, and manufacturer is going to be starved of the funds and materials it needs to survive. To all intents, Vladimir Putin has blockaded his own country.
If Russia’s invasion of Ukraine succeed militarily, that blockade will remain. If Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fails militarily, that blockade will remain. Putin has demonstrated that it is still possible to unite the planet — that you can still draw Emanuel Macron and Viktor Orbán into an alliance. All it took was launching the largest, and most foolish, invasion since World War II.
What was it Donald Trump called this invasion? “Genius”? And “wonderful”? And “smart”? That should have been the signal to everyone. This is the man who went broke running casinos, and also the guy who claimed to be smarter than “all the generals.” When Trump likes your strategy, you know you’ve made a mistake.
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 9:01:40 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
More of the incredible Ukrainian attitude toward the invaders. The word “palyanitsa” is a kind of shibboleth, in that Russians apparently say it in a distinctly different way than Ukrainians. So getting them to say this word is a kind of ID at a distance … though of course he doesn’t hesitate to walk right up to them, filming all the way, and lecturing them about his rights under the Ukrainian constitution.
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 9:04:32 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The list of countries promising more military assistance to Ukraine today alone includes: France, Germany, Sweden, Portugal, Estonia, the U.K., and the United States. France is now promising to “drastically ramp up” both sanctions against Russia and deliveries to Ukraine.
More when there are details on the new sanctions.
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 9:11:24 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The New York Times reports that Russia’s own coverage of the war in Ukraine has gone dark.
“Even as a vicious battle for Kyiv unfolded on Saturday morning, a Russian Defense Ministry statement about the situation in Ukraine made no mention of the Ukrainian capital or any Russian casualties. The ministry, which typically releases sleek and copious footage daily of the Russian military in action, published no videos of its combat operations in Ukraine.”
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 9:33:12 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Extremely loud and frequent explosions right now in Kyiv. A lot of the lights have gone out across the city and there appears to be a heavy bombardment north of the city.
Air raid sirens have sounded with warnings that extremely destructive missile / bombardment / artillery is incoming.
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 11:49:26 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Earlier this week, the head of the Russian space program made a bizarre threat to crash the international space station. Now Russia has pulled its cooperation and crew from the EU launch site in French Guiana. This affects a Soyuz flight that was scheduled for next week.
Saturday, Feb 26, 2022 · 11:55:12 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
In The Guardian coverage of the SWIFT announcement, was this welcome news from a U.S. official.
“We’ll go after their yachts, their luxury apartments their money and their ability to send their kids to fancy colleges in the west. We will also engage other governments, so as to detect and disrupt the movement of ill-gotten gains, and deny these individuals their ability to hide their assets in jurisdictions across the world,”