It’s not yet sunrise in Ukraine, and anyone looking in on Ukrainian cities on Saturday night will find them extra dark. With few exceptions, that’s not because power supplies have been damaged, but because Ukrainian officials have purposely turned out the lights in response to increased Russian air raids. Russia may not have the night vision goggles and infrared systems that allow its infantry to make major advances at night, but it does have both sophisticated aircraft and missile systems that gain an advantage from operating in darkness.
So, like London during the Blitz, Ukrainians are finding their way around a darkened city. Street lights are off, so are the lights on most high rise and public buildings. Cars and pedestrians are both making their way through the darkness, trying to not become targets for Russian forces that are growing ever more frustrated. Ukrainian officials have even asked news crews not to turn on lights when filming broadcasts from Ukrainian cities, so anyone tuning into CNN, MSNBC, or BBC broadcasts in the last few hours has seen … not a whole lot, as broadcasters speak to them out of shadow.
But at least two areas of Ukraine got an early sunrise. Near Kharkiv, a gas pipeline and storage tanks were the target of multiple Russian shells, resulting in a massive eruption of flames. Soon after, an oil depot near Kyiv was turning into a throbbing expanse of flames that could be seen on the horizon in many images and broadcasts overnight. The sound of the explosions at the oil depot rattled windows across the city. It is currently about three hours until dawn in Kyiv, but the fire is still burning at the location of the explosion in nearby Vasilkiv, providing an eerie backdrop for much of the city.
In terms of actual military engagements, it’s unclear that Russia claimed any new territory in the last hours. More fighting is taking place near Kherson, but most of the action appears to be on the south side of the river, leaving the control of that much-traded bridge in doubt. There are also reports of fighting in Starobilsk, north of Luhansk, which could represent more Russian forces pressing in from the East. Official word from the Ukrainian defense ministry is that Russian forces have not advanced, but it’s unclear if that represents ground truth. Meanwhile, leaked intelligence seems to indicate that Russian generals have set a deadline for taking Kyiv by Monday.
Sunday, Feb 27, 2022 · 1:22:52 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Is Russia trying to take Ukraine on the cheap, or is Putin simply throwing old equipment — and the lives of soldiers — away? For what it’s worth, Ukraine has at least 500 tanks that are a generation or two better than anything in this column.
Sunday, Feb 27, 2022 · 1:35:03 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
On Thursday, several nuclear-capable ballistic missiles were seen moving around Moscow — in a way that suggested Russia really, really wanted them to be seen. In the last 24 hours, there have been rumors about some of this missiles being moved into Belarus. That doesn’t seem to be true … yet. However, a vote is upcoming that might allow such an action.
Exactly what would be accomplished by this, other than making any military action within Belarus much more complicated, isn’t clear. It’s not as if positioning missiles there will allow Russia to reach targets currently out of range for either strategic or tactical weapons.
Sunday, Feb 27, 2022 · 1:49:41 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
CNN pointing out the TOS-1 thermobaric weapon system, examples of which have been seen twice today in different parts of Ukraine, including near Kyiv. If you’ve ever seen images of a fuel-air bomb—capable of the largest non-nuclear explosions—this thing is a machine for throwing a lot of those. Fast. It’s a city leveler,
Sunday, Feb 27, 2022 · 2:01:36 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Gunfire can be heard on the west side of Kyiv, but the level of fire is nothing like the exchange of tracers and heavy fire that went on early in the evening. No sign of any heavy fighting in the areas that have seen so much combat north of the city over the last two days. Lights are on in Khakova, near Kherson.
And … as I was typing this, several large explosions in the Kyiv area. No details.
Sunday, Feb 27, 2022 · 2:09:32 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
One of several posts indicating that Russian forces are being pressured to move more quickly. It’s obvious to everyone that Russia has met an order of magnitude more resistance than expected, and the cost in men and machines has already been high. But now it appears they are being pressed to bring home the prize on a deadline. Which may be very difficult to accomplish.
If anyone understands how difficult it is to take an urban center, it should be Russia.
Sunday, Feb 27, 2022 · 2:20:10 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Video shows tanks and troops rolling in from Belgorod, which means within a couple of hours they will be at, where else, Kharkiv. If you don’t hear news of another major battle in the Kharkiv area, it will mean that Russia has finally broken through. But by now, the highways in that area have to be paved in tank fragments.
Sunday, Feb 27, 2022 · 2:31:09 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Ukrainian refugees at the Polish border. So far, around 100,000 people are thought to have been displaced. But Ukraine has a population of over 44 million. That number could explode if Russian forces begin concentrating on city centers.
Sunday, Feb 27, 2022 · 2:48:38 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
This absolutely has to be the most surprising aspect of this war so far.
The reason seems to be in large part bad intelligence that both failed to accurately target mobile defensive weapons, and adequately hit fixed targets. In shorter terms: they screwed up.
Sunday, Feb 27, 2022 · 2:55:08 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
This is another burning oil depot, this one in the southeast in Luhansk oblast. I don’t honestly know if the pattern tonight represents some systematic effort by Russia to take out fuel locations. That wouldn’t be surprising, but the sites hit so far seem to be natural gas lines or raw crude depots, neither of which represents an immediate threat to keeping Ukrainian tanks topped off.
Sunday, Feb 27, 2022 · 3:29:32 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The summary here from MilitaryLand.net is that Russian forces made a lot of small gains on Saturday, while Ukrainian forces continued to do well in some locations that have become familiar names in the last three days.
Russian advances
Melitopol: Ukraine retook Melitopol Friday night, but were pushed out during the day on Saturday. Russian forces in control. Ukrainian forces regrouped at Tokmak, but have fallen back again “after a fierce battle.”
Kyiv: Russian troops briefly occupied Obolonskyi and Svyatoshyns’kyi districts, but were pushed back. Ukraine forces have left area around the Hostomel airport.
Luhansk: Ukrainian forces pulled back to avoid being encircled by Russian troops, how have now moved into much of the area without a fight.
Ukraine holds / advances
Kherson: “Ukrainian forces successfully counter-attacked and stabilized the situation around Kherson.” This includes repulsing forces that bypassed Kherson to hit Mykolaiv.
Sumy, Khakiv, and Konotop remain in Ukrainian hands despite hard fighting. Ukraine retook all of Sumy on Saturday.
Sunday, Feb 27, 2022 · 4:08:08 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
It’s about half an hour until dawn in Ukraine. The sky is starting to brighten over Kyiv, and we’re moving into Sunday pretty much where we started Saturday. Russia still doesn’t have air superiority. It still doesn’t control any major city center. It still hasn’t been able to clear Ukrainian units from key positions in Kherson and Kharkiv, and it still hasn’t been able to encircle Kyiv.
However, Russia has made creeping gains almost everywhere, and it is moving more forces in. And more forces behind them. So far, Russia has made foolish mistakes with logistics and supplies, but there is no guarantee they will continue. So far, a lot of the Russian troops have been poorly trained and mounted on tanks that once upon a time had a red star on their sides. But they have better troops and better equipment. Why they haven’t deployed it so far … that’s a good question.
Anyway, nothing is going to get easier and the pressure to resolve the situation quickly is definitely being felt by Russian leadership.
Tomorrow is going to suck. And so will the day after that. And so will every day until the war ends. It would be nice if it ends with some new leader in Moscow explaining how Putin is taking a long vacation, and those silly troops who took a wrong turn into Ukraine are coming home. But don’t count on it.
And with that — I’m heading for the showers (literally). Someone else will be taking over this task in the AM, and until then, please feel free to update and stay on the latest events in comments. Goodnight, folks. Thanks for hanging in there.
