After another night of heavy fighting, the Ukrainian military continues to hold out, and Russian forces continue to suffer losses that seem far in excess of what the initial Russian strategy anticipated. Putin seems to have been certain that Ukraine's armed forces would amount to only trivial opposition—and the current state of affairs seems to suggest that Putin long ago rid himself of any generals who would push back against such assumptions. The result has been a humiliation for the "second largest army in the world," as apparent supply line troubles, intelligence failures, poor planning, and military lines filled out mostly with short-term conscripts conspired to seemingly botch whatever grand design Putin had envisioned, in his bid to return Russia to the status of major world power it commanded during the Soviet era.
That does not mean that Russia is losing the war. While Russian forces have suffered significant setbacks in each of their offensives, they also continue to make the sort of incremental gains that could soon strangle major Ukrainian population centers. As the Ukrainian president begs for supplies—some of which are already arriving, but the vast majority of which will take days, a week, or even longer—rifles are being distributed to the civilian population, officials and residents both are removing road signs and making other attempts to stymie Russian progress and hold off full Russian occupation for as long as possible.
The volatility of the situation cannot be overstated. The Russian military has, for whatever reason, committed far less of their assembled forces to the invasion than they had originally gathered, and there is considerable, credible speculation that Russian supply line problems have thwarted efforts to commit more. From video images and other reports, it seems that Russia still has not been able to secure supply lines leading through Ukraine as their forces advance—a dangerous failure that has already led to images of abandoned Russian equipment after the soldiers manning it ran out of fuel, food, or both.
On the other hand, military experts are publicly worried that a now-embarrassed Putin will switch to a strategy of simply leveling Ukraine's major cities, such that there are few civilians left to even mount a resistance. This would be the mass-casualty "strategy" Russia undertook in Chechnya—a war crime of horrific magnitude, but not one the Russian leader would shy from.
If Ukrainian forces can inflict enough damage to hold off those attacks while new weapons roll into the country from NATO countries and other nations, such an outcome could well be averted. But that remains an optimistic scenario, and a single Russian advance could jumble the situation yet again. Intelligence leaks have suggested that Russian generals intend to take Kyiv by Monday; if so, the next 24 hours may see Russian attacks on a far larger scale than any the nation has yet launched.
Sunday, Feb 27, 2022 · 3:54:50 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
In Belarus today, citizens are voting on a change to the nation’s constitution, one that would increase formal ties with Russia, allow Russia to move nuclear weapons onto Belarus’ territory, and is widely seen as being a step toward simply folding Belarus back into a neo-Soviet empire. The election is also expected to mark further movement of Belarus troops into Ukraine as a sign of their alliance with Russia.
With dictator Alexander Lukashenko in charge — a man who has proudly referred to himself as Europe’s “last dictator — it’s unclear how much connection there will be between actual votes at the polls, and the announced results. After all, Lukashenko put himself down for 90% of the vote in the last election, even as opposition candidates claimed he had really received less than 40%.
Like Putin, Lukashenko has often taken brutal action against protesters or political opponents. However, there has been widespread protests at poling stations across the country, and particularly in the capital of Minsk. Minsk was not only the site of the last negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, at which a disorganized and reeling Ukraine was forced to agree to humiliating terms, it’s also the site Russia has proposed for any peace talks concerning the current conflict.
Sunday, Feb 27, 2022 · 4:10:47 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
On Saturday, Russian forces moved into areas west and north of Kyiv, capturing industrial and suburban areas, and forcing Ukrainian forces to withdraw from fought-over Hostomel airport. During the night, massive explosions came from oil depots and chemical plants in the area, occasionally lighting reports from Kyiv with an eerie glow. As dawn hit on Sunday, fighting in the area became extraordinarily intense.
As of Sunday afternoon in Ukraine, sources have reported that Ukraine has retaken some of these areas around the city, especially in the community of Bucha, which is adjacent to the airport. Multiple videos show of a line of Russian armor, transports, and supply vehicles utterly smashed. The videos also showcase the destruction that has taken place in the surrounding community, with shops and homes reduced to piles of rubble.
Control of some of these neighborhoods, as well as the airport, is unclear at this moment. However, what these fights do indicate is that Russia has been unable to complete a maneuver critical to its plans: encircling and isolating the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.
Isolating Kyiv and installing a puppet government is the core of Vladimir Putin’s plan. Ukraine is well aware of this. The battles that keep occurring at places like Kharkiv and Kherson are not just about defending those locations, they’re about preventing the Russians from approaching Kyiv from the east (Kharkiv) and southeast (Kherson). The intense battle at Bucha means that Russia has also been unable to maintain its perimeter on the west of the city — which could have an enormous strategic value.
Earlier messages have indicated that Russian leadership is demanding that Kyiv be captured by Monday. That is looking … unlikely.
Sunday, Feb 27, 2022 · 4:26:03 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
What was by several measures the largest operational plane on the planet, the sole example of the Anotov An-225 Mriya, has reportedly been destroyed on the ground at Hostomel airport. The plane was produced in Ukraine during the Soviet era, was owned by a Ukrainian airlines, and among other things was used to transport the Buran—the Soviet space shuttle.
Mriya (which means “dream”) has toured the world several times and had fans always on hand when it landed at international airports. It had only been on the ground in Ukraine for the last two weeks after returning from a flight to Denmark. Mriya apparently survived the first Russian assault on the airport, when it was captured by a combination of attack helicopters and parachute troops. Then it was recaptured by Ukranian forces, only to be destroyed by a second Russian assault.
There is a second Mriya which has been sitting in a hanger, only about half completed, for decades. So the dream could possibly fly again one day.
Sunday, Feb 27, 2022 · 4:34:27 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
What else did the just destroyed giant plane “Myira” do? It did this just two years ago.
“As the coronavirus pandemic ravages the US, Ukraine is doing Trump a huge favor: The country is using its cargo planes—the biggest in the world—to ferry crucial personal protective equipment (PPE) from Asia to medical professionals on the front line of the health crisis in the US.”