Sunday morning, Mark Sumner asked: “What the f**k is going on with the Russian military?” There was no answer. No one knows. What we do know is that the supposed “second strongest army in the world” is having a rough go at pacifying a nation with a vastly inferior military. And while you can argue that higher morale can overcome a superior army, all the Ukrainian spit and vigor shouldn’t have been able to prevent Russian air superiority in hour one of the conflict. Ukraine simply lacks much of an Air Force. And yet we still see Ukrainian jets, drones, and helicopters engaging the enemy.
Look at Russia’s cruise missile campaign. As of last night, the United States had counted “at least 200 cruise missile” launches since the start of the war. In the first two days of the Iraq War, the United States launched 504. Is it fair to compare Russia to the United States? Clearly not, as we can now see. But Vladimir Putin insisted Russia was a peer global super power. And it is one, but only because of its nukes. Take those away, and really, there doesn’t seem to be much left. Indeed, I saw an expert somewhere (sorry no link, I couldn’t find it in the sea of information we’re swimming in) speculate that Russia was rationing its missile launches—just a few a day to sow terror amongst the Ukrainian populace.
Monday, Feb 28, 2022 · 2:46:49 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
More news related to the intense shelling of homes and apartment buildings in Kharkiv. Military experts indicate the type of shell being used is deliberately design to generate civilian casualties. It’s a terror weapon, deployed to sap the will of defenders. And a war crime.
Monday, Feb 28, 2022 · 3:01:28 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Military experts indicate that the bombs being used in that shelling in Kharkiv are especially designed to generate civilian casualties. These are a terror weapon, deployed to sap the will of defenders. This is also a war crime in progress
The team here at Daily Kos yesterday was speculating on our Slack channel about how Putin could’ve so dramatically overestimated his military capabilities. Among our theories: the oligarchs in the nation’s defense industry were skimming defense budget dollars to buy jets, Italian villas, and yachts, and to pay the right people at the Ministry of Defense to fudge the relevant spreadsheets. “We delivered 1,000 cruise missiles, comrade!” Except maybe it was 100. Given what we know about the Russian economy, it seemed quite plausible. Then last night, this thread supported the theory. Russia had a minister of defence, Anatoly Serdyukov, who greatly increased the Russian army’s efficiency in 2007-2012. But part of his work was in holding oligarchs accountable for their arms deliveries. So he was ousted. And the new guy? He stopped annoying those powerful oligarchs.
[Minister of Defense Sergey] Shoygy not only purged Serdyukov's appointees, pandered to old military establishment, stopped arguing with army suppliers about the equipment cost and quality. He also pandered to numerous feel-good-lies regarding the Russian big strategy. [Emphasis mine.]
It’s not just Russian armor sitting dead on the side of the road, it’s the hundreds of planes and helicopters that are parked in airfields in Belarus, not swarming the Ukrainian skies. The only explanation is that they can’t fly. And given how many attack helicopters we saw the first 24 hours, seems like that was all it took to knock them out of operation. There’s likely a big story to tell, and if this is a factor, it’ll be just one in many. Books will be written. Generations will spend time studying this, both at war colleges and in academia. But what we know now is that everything we were promised in terms of Russia’s combat prowess has proven to be a paper tiger. They still may get what they want out of sheer brutality and numerical superiority, but any such potential victory won’t have a thing to do with having a smart, modern, tactically sound military.
Monday, Feb 28, 2022 · 1:11:32 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The U.S. is applying yet more sanctions.
If you bring the last week down to two stories, they are:
1) The incredible toughness of the Ukrainian military, and how their resistance has revealed Russia not as a paper tiger, but as a force that has gotten along for decades by using numbers and brutality to beat up fourth-rate powers. The reputation of that force has been utterly blown away when facing stiff resistance.
2) The effort of the rest of the planet to find ways in which it’s possible to make warfare itself simply not worth it. Is it possible, without putting boots on the ground (or missiles in the air) to exact a cost higher than could possibly be gained through aggressive warfare? We’re still finding out. But locating all the levers that can be pulled is important.
Here’s another step toward that goal.
Monday, Feb 28, 2022 · 1:26:17 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Kharkiv on Monday is taking an absolute pounding from GRAD multilaunch rocket systems. This appears to be absolutely intentional and indiscriminate heavy weapons fire directed at civilian buildings. Another horror stacked on what’s already become a long list.
Monday, Feb 28, 2022 · 1:37:57 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Finland announces it will send weapons to Ukraine. At this point, both Sweden and Finland, which had taken pains to express neutrality toward past Russian actions and to avoid confrontations with Moscow, are all in on opposition to Putin.
Monday, Feb 28, 2022 · 1:41:30 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
In Kyiv, as in other Ukrainian cities, shelves in grocery stores are starting to become bare. Getting more food into these cities is as vital as delivering javelin and stinger missiles if Ukrainian resolve is to remain high.
But even as people are queuing for hours for the meager amounts of food that are left, there are stories …
Monday, Feb 28, 2022 · 1:48:19 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The Ukrainian Navy has released an official statement saying that the sailors on Snake Island—the ones who answered that radio call with “Russian warship, go fuck yourself”—are not dead. They were captured by Russian forces and, as far as is known, all are still alive.
