The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Daniel Donner, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
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Leading Off
● TX-28, TX-AG: The hotly anticipated rematch between Rep. Henry Cuellar, one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, and immigration attorney Jessica Cisneros, who is challenging the incumbent from the left, appears headed headed to a May 24 runoff. With 49,000 votes counted, Cuellar held a tiny 48-47 lead on Cisneros―a margin of about 800 ballots―following Tuesday's primary, while a third candidate, community organizer Tannya Benavides, took 5%—enough to keep either of the two leaders from winning an outright majority and avoiding a second round.
Meanwhile, Texas' scandal-plagued attorney general, Republican Ken Paxton, was also forced into a runoff after falling well short of a majority in Tuesday's primary, a battle that will pit him against state Land Commissioner George P. Bush. With most votes tallied, Paxton led Bush, who is the son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, by a 43-23 margin, with former state Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman taking 17% and missing out on the second slot in the May 24 runoff. The results also terminated Rep. Louie Gohmert's political career, as the notoriously addled congressman finished fourth with 17% as well.
We'll be recapping all of Tuesday's results in the next Morning Digest, though if you don't want to wait that long, join us on Wednesday at Daily Kos Elections and follow along as we provide updates in our Live Digest.
Senate
Campaign Action
● OH-Sen: J.D. Vance's allies at Protect Ohio Values have released a survey of the May Republican primary from Fabrizio Lee arguing that the group's recent ad buys have helped stabilize Vance in the weeks since it found his campaign in a "precipitous decline." The new numbers are below, with the January results in parentheses:
Businessman Mike Gibbons: 18 (14)
Venture capitalist J.D. Vance: 14 (9)
Former state Treasurer Josh Mandel: 14 (15)
Former state party chair Jane Timken: 12 (13)
State Sen. Matt Dolan: 8 (3)
Businessman Bernie Moreno, who took 11% in January, dropped out of the race in the time between the two surveys.
● OK-Sen-B, OK-Sen-A: State Sen. Nathan Dahm has announced that he's ending his longshot primary challenge to Republican Sen. James Lankford and will instead compete in the special election to replace outgoing Sen. Jim Inhofe. Lankford's other intra-party foe, pastor Jackson Lahmeyer, has decided to keep campaigning against the incumbent, though like Dahm, he ended 2021 with little money. Meanwhile, Tulsa Mayor G.T. Bynum says he will not seek the GOP nod for any office in 2022.
● WI-Sen: Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry has released a poll from Normington Petts that shows him trailing Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes 35-27 in the August Democratic primary, while everyone else remains mired in the single digits. The memo includes numbers from unreleased surveys to argue that Lasry has dramatically shrunk what was a 43-4 deficit last August as he's gotten his name out. The last poll we saw was a December Impact Research internal for Barnes that had him leading Lasry 40-11.
Governors
● MI-Gov: MIRS has commissioned a survey of the August Republican primary by the GOP firm Mitchell Research that finds former Detroit Police Chief James Craig leading chiropractor Garrett Soldano 32-10. The poll was in the field Feb. 17-19 and sampled 539 likely GOP primary voters.
House
● FL-15: While former state Rep. Adam Hattersley showed some interest last year in making a second run for Florida's 15th Congressional District, the Democrat announced this week that he'd instead run to unseat state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, a Republican who has many of the duties that would belong to a treasurer or comptroller in other states. (The CFO is also the state fire marshal.)
● FL-22: Democratic Rep. Ted Deutch tells the South Florida Sun-Sentinel that he plans to start his new job leading the American Jewish Committee on Oct. 1, which means he'll be resigning sometime before then. Several fellow Democrats have already expressed interest in running to succeed him in what's currently a 57-42 Biden seat, but state Sen. Tina Polsky says she's not going to go for it.
However, while this will likely remain a solidly blue district after redistricting concludes, Republican state Rep. Chip LaMarca says he's thinking about running here and says he'll decide after the legislative session, which is set to conclude March 11.
● MI-10: Sterling Heights City Councilman Henry Yanez announced Tuesday that he would seek the Democratic nomination for the open 10th District, a suburban Detroit seat that would have narrowly backed Donald Trump 50-49. Yanez joins attorney Huwaida Arraf and Warren Council member Angela Rogensues in the August primary, while former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga is also considering the race.
Yanez, who is a retired firefighter, previously ran for Congress in 2010 against then-Rep. Candice Miller in a safely red seat (which was also numbered the 10th District) and lost the general election 72-26, but he bounced back two years later by winning a competitive state House district. He convincingly held on during the 2014 GOP wave and won his final term 54-46 even as Donald Trump was carrying his constituency 52-43, but he went on to lose a contested race in 2018 for a GOP-leaning state Senate district. Yanez's time out of office was short, though, as he was appointed to a vacant seat on the Sterling Heights City Council months later and subsequently held it at the ballot box.
● MN-01: Democrat Dan Feehan, who lost close general elections in 2018 and 2020, says that he will not compete in the Aug. 9 special election. Feehan's announcement came about two weeks ahead of the March 15 filing deadline.
● NC-09: State Rep. John Szoka has ended his primary campaign against Republican Rep. Richard Hudson days ahead of Friday's filing deadline.
● NC-13: State House Speaker Tim Moore said over the weekend that he would seek another term leading the chamber, a move that once and for all takes the Republican out of contention for Congress this cycle.
● RI-02: The Rhode Island AFL-CIO, which WPRI says is the Ocean State's largest labor group, has endorsed Treasurer Seth Magaziner in the September Democratic primary for this open seat.
Grab Bag
● Where Are They Now?: After losing two tight congressional races, former Rep. David Young has decided that the good meal is to be found in the Iowa state House. Young this week became the first Republican to announce a bid for the swingy 28th House District in the Des Moines suburbs, which, according to Dave's Redistricting App, would have favored Joe Biden by a tight 49.0-48.8 margin. Two Democrats are currently campaigning here.
