At the start of Saturday, Mariupol remains surrounded. An agreement to allow civilians to evacuate the heavily-shelled city was violated by Russian forces that fired into those trying to escape. Now the reduction of the city continues. If Mariupol falls, it will leave Russia in complete control of a large, connected section of southern and eastern Ukraine, giving them more flexibility in the movement of troops and armor, and new positions from which they can fire into cities deeper in Ukraine.
Elsewhere, Russian troops occupy the center of Kherson. Sumy is thought to be fully encircled. Guns and missile batteries across the border in Russia continue to fire into battered Kharkiv.
By Friday evening, Russia had fired over 500 missiles into Ukraine. Some were medium-range missiles launched from nearby in Russia or Belarus. Some were ballistic missiles fired from much farther away. Those missiles have smashed up homes, apartment buildings, schools, hospitals, and television stations. They’re burned people alive on the grounds of a Holocaust memorial. And they’re just a fraction of what has been pumped out by GRAD systems that fire dozens of small missiles a minute.
By most measures, the over 160,000 Russian troops now in Ukraine are steadily, if more slowly than expected, taking control of the country. Worse, Russia has openly adopted the tactic it used in Chechnya, Syria, and Georgia; the tactic of grinding civilians areas into bloody dust until resistance collapses. All over Ukraine, cities are getting that Grozny look: streets full of rubble, burned out cars, buildings looking as if they’ve been gnawed by Godzilla-sized rats.
And still, the outcome on the ground seems somehow less inevitable by the day. Even as Russia is drawing in its forces, sending even more equipment to the battle, and calling in its most experienced generals to take direct command in the field, the prospect that Ukraine might just win this thing—not in a “after 10, or 15, or 20 years of guerilla fighting” sense, but 10, or 15, or 20 days from now—seems entirely… thinkable.
All over Ukraine, both on the ground and in the air, there are signals of hope as well as signals of despair. And there are even more reasons to think that Russia is a paper bear, its cruelty the only thing it has left.
Saturday, Mar 5, 2022 · 2:08:18 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
One definitely not good sign — images of a Ukrainian camp outside Kherson give a clue as to how horridly forces withdrew from the area, leaving behind huge amounts of ammunition, vehicles, and supplies. And yes, at least some of this imagery was supplied by RT, so don’t be surprised if we eventually learn that part, most, or all of this was simply staged for propaganda purposes. (See later update: It now appears that this location was actually at a site some distance from Kherson and was likely overrun on the first day of the invasion.)
Saturday, Mar 5, 2022 · 2:12:25 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Russia continues to loose aircraft. In this case, the pilot has been taken prisoner and is being interrogated. I’m skipping over footage of the pilot being taken, and being questioned. However, if Ukrainian sources are accurate, this particular pilot appears to be experienced in bombing civilian locations.
[Note: I have removed an earlier links that included images of the captured pilot. Infamous captives are still captives, and posting images of captured prisoners in war is rarely justifiable.]
Saturday, Mar 5, 2022 · 2:16:37 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
When it comes to keeping track of the equipment that has been visually identified as lost or captured on both sides, Oryx has become the go-to site for the most accurate list. Their numbers are never going to match up to the totals claimed in the field, but these are vehicles that have been identified and confirmed.
Saturday, Mar 5, 2022 · 2:22:54 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
That plane shot down was identified as a Sukhoi Su-30 — one of Russia’s most advanced fighter jets. The version taken down, the Su-30SM, has special modifications that are designed to make it even more nimble and special weaponry designed to strike targets on the ground.
But this advanced “4+ generation” fighter isn’t the only aircraft Russia has lost in the last few hours. A helicopter was shot down outside of Kyiv. The pilots of that craft are also reported to have been captured.
And there’s this. I have no confirmation for this at all. I’m running it anyway.
Saturday, Mar 5, 2022 · 2:36:35 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
At this point, a reported 60,000 volunteers have gone into Ukraine to fight against Russia. That includes volunteers from across Europe, and the U.S., and places as seemingly unconnected from this conflict as Japan. It can be expected that some of these troops will have combat experience. It can be expected that some of these troops will never had so much as taken a camping trip.
How these forces will hold up in battle, or how well they will coordinate with Ukrainian regulars and territorial defense forces is unknown. But it would certainly be great if by stabilizing the situation in “southern and eastern Ukraine” it means that some of these forces are going to relieve besieged cities and towns like Mariupol.
Saturday, Mar 5, 2022 · 3:03:33 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Adding this view of a helicopter takedown (which may be one of five in the last 24 hours) because it so clearly shows how this multimillion dollar aircraft is falling to a portable weapon that cost about 1/200th as much.
Saturday, Mar 5, 2022 · 3:16:19 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Careful analysis of the images of the abandoned Ukrainian camp show that it is actually about a dozen miles southeast of Kherson. Meaning that this is likely a position which was overrun in the first day of the conflict, making it much more understandable.
This isn’t a position where Ukrainian forces were falling back so quickly from the Russian assault on Kherson that they abandoned their gear on the move to Mykolaiv. This is simply materiel Russia captured as it poured into Ukraine at the outset of the invasion.
Saturday, Mar 5, 2022 · 3:51:10 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
While there are many encouraging images of Ukrainian civilians standing up to Russian invaders this morning, there are also reminders that these confrontations can have very different outcome. WARNING: Graphic violence.
Saturday, Mar 5, 2022 · 4:14:49 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Russian forces have once against moved into Irpin and Bucha. On Friday, Ukrainian military helped evacuate much of the civilian population from these areas, including leading people over fallen bridges. But going into Saturday night, Russia seems to be positioning for another assault on Kyiv proper. Based on past results, I wouldn’t want to be one of the people inside that tank.
The people of Ukraine need your help. Over a million refugees have already fled Putin’s invasion, and the situation is only getting worse. If you can, please donate to these charities helping the Ukrainian people in this desperate hour.
