We have another big primary night on Tuesday as voters in Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia head to the polls. That’s not all, though, as Texas is holding runoffs for races where no one earned a majority of the vote in the March 1 primary. On top of that, both Democrats and Republicans in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District will pick nominees for an Aug. 9 special election to succeed Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn, who died in February.
Below you'll find our guide to all of the top contests, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
And of course, because this is a redistricting year, every state on the docket has a brand-new congressional map. To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Texas.
The Daily Kos Elections Team talks with Joe Sudbay about the big primaries and all of the redistricting nonsense on The Downballot podcast
Note that the presidential results we include after each district reflect how the 2020 race would have gone under the new lines in place for this fall except in Minnesota’s 1st, which is being conducted using the existing boundaries. (The state's regularly scheduled primary won't be held until Aug. 9.) And if you'd like to know how much of the population in each new district comes from each old district, please check out our redistribution tables.
Our live coverage will begin at 7 PM ET at Daily Kos Elections when polls close in Georgia. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates, and you’ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.
Polls close at 7 PM ET. A runoff will take place June 21 in contests where no one earns a majority of the vote.
● GA-Sen (R) (49-49 Biden): Six Republicans are running to face Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who is seeking a full term after winning a crucial special election in January of last year, but the undisputed frontrunner from the very beginning has been former University of Georgia football star Herschel Walker. Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, banking executive Latham Saddler, and businessman Kelvin King have argued that Walker, who has been the subject of a long string of critical stories about his past, would be a terrible standard-bearer, but every single poll shows the Trump-endorsed contender easily winning the nomination.
● GA-Gov (R) (49-49 Biden): Gov. Brian Kemp’s refusal to help Donald Trump steal Georgia’s electoral votes led Trump to recruit former Sen. David Perdue to challenge the governor for renomination, but that effort has utterly self-destructed. Kemp has used his huge fundraising advantage to promote his ardently conservative record and trash Perdue’s history of outsourcing jobs, while the former senator has offered little beyond Big Lie conspiracy theories. Every recent poll finds Kemp avoiding a runoff against Perdue, who stopped running ads in the final days. The eventual winner will go up against 2018 Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams, who has no intraparty opposition in her second campaign.
● GA-02 (55-44 Biden): Veteran Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop hasn't faced a serious general election foe since his close shave in the 2010 GOP wave, but six Republicans are now taking him on in a southwestern Georgia seat that became slightly redder under the new map. Army veteran Jeremy Hunt and businessman Wayne Johnson, a former Trump official in the Department of Education, have led the pack financially and spent comparable amounts of money. Hunt has also been the beneficiary of $740,000 in outside aid, but his critics note that he only recently relocated from the Atlanta area. Air Force veteran Chris West has spent considerably less than the other two, while the remaining three candidates have barely registered.
● GA-06 (R) (57-42 Trump): Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath decided to run in the neighboring 7th District after Republican mapmakers completely transformed her Democratic-leaning seat in the northern Atlanta suburbs into a safely red constituency. Nine Republicans are competing to replace her.
The early frontrunner had appeared to be physician Rich McCormick, who narrowly lost last year's race in the prior version of the 7th District to Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux (the old 7th makes up 30% of the new 6th) and is the best-funded candidate. Former state Ethics Commission Chair Jake Evans, though, picked up an endorsement from Donald Trump in the final weeks of the contest. Evans’ father, major GOP donor Randy Evans, has also financed a super PAC that has spent $270,000 here. Pastor Mallory Staples and former state Rep. Meagan Hanson have also each brought in a credible amount of money.
● GA-07 (D) (62-36 Biden): Republicans turned this once-competitive seat in Atlanta's northeastern suburbs into safely blue turf by moving Democratic voters out of the neighboring 6th District, a move that set off an incumbent versus incumbent primary between Carolyn Bourdeaux and Lucy McBath. State Rep. Donna McLeod is also running, and though she’s attracted little attention, her presence could prevent either congresswoman from winning outright.
Bourdeaux has a geographic advantage, as she represents 57% of the new seat compared to just 12% for McBath. However, the more progressive McBath is better aligned with primary voters than Bourdeaux, who last year joined a group of nine renegade Democratic moderates who threatened to derail Biden's Build Back Better agenda if they didn't get a vote on Congress' bipartisan infrastructure bill first. And while there's been almost no outside spending for Bourdeaux, McBath has benefited in $5.1 million in support mainly from three groups: Protect Our Future PAC, which is funded by cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, and two gun safety organizations financed by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
● GA-10 (R) (61-38 Trump): Far-right extremist Jody Hice is running for secretary of state with Donald Trump's blessing, and eight of his fellow Republicans are facing off to replace him in a safely red constituency based in Atlanta's eastern exurbs and rural areas in the northeastern part of the state. The most prominent contender is former state Rep. Vernon Jones, a conservative Democrat-turned-Republican who earned Trump's support after he ended his long shot campaign for governor to run here instead. Jones, though, never represented any of this area in the legislature or as the chief executive of DeKalb County in the Atlanta area, leading his opponents to portray him as an outsider.
The field also includes several people who actually have been on the ballot in this district in past primaries. There's former Rep. Paul Broun, who gave up the existing version of the 10th in 2014 to unsuccessfully run for the Senate and went on to lose comeback bids for the old 9th in both 2016 and 2020. (About 70% of the new 10th’s constituents live within the boundaries of Broun’s last seat.)
Another familiar name is trucking company owner Mike Collins, the son of the late Rep. Mac Collins, who sought to succeed Broun in 2014 but lost to Hice 54-46. State Rep. Timothy Barr, meanwhile, has the support of Hice and 9th District Rep. Andrew Clyde. The primary also features former Georgia Revenue Commissioner David Curry, businessman Marc McMain, retired Air Force Col. Alan Sims, and retired Marine Col. Mitchell Swan, who took a mere 4% in the 2014 primary.
● GA-13 (D) (80-19 Biden): Rep. David Scott, who has long been one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus, took just 53% of the vote in the 2020 primary against several underfunded foes. He again faces intraparty opposition, this time from former state Sen. Vincent Fort, South Fulton City Councilor Mark Baker, and consultant Shastity Driscoll.
But Scott, whose seat in Atlanta's western and southern suburbs didn’t change much following redistricting, has once again enjoyed a massive financial lead over all of his opponents. Fort, a prominent Bernie Sanders ally who unsuccessfully ran for mayor of Atlanta in 2017, has run the most active campaign, but he’s struggled to raise money.
● GA-AG, GA-SoS (R) (49-49 Biden): While Donald Trump’s crusade to take down Gov. Brian Kemp has all but detonated, he may have more success going after Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Cris Carr, two other statewide Republicans who declined to enable the Big Lie.
Trump’s candidate against Raffensperger is Rep. Jody Hice, who eagerly went along with attempts to overturn the 2020 election. Former Alpharetta Mayor David Belle Isle, who lost to Raffensperger in 2018, is also in, though he's gained little traction. A pair of late April polls found the primary going to a runoff, albeit with lots of undecideds: The University of Georgia showed Raffensperger leading Hice 28-26, while SurveyUSA had the incumbent ahead 31-22. The eventual winner will likely take on state Rep. Bee Nguyen, who is the Democratic frontrunner.
In the attorney general contest, Trump is pulling for John Gordon, a previously little-known attorney who renewed his law license last year so that he could help Trump undo his Georgia defeat. No other Republicans are challenging Carr, so this primary will be settled in round one. The one poll we saw was an early May offering from the GOP firm ARW Strategies that had Carr ahead 25-9 but with a majority undecided. The Democratic contrast is also far less competitive, as state Sen. Jen Jordan only faces one little-known foe.
Polls close at 8 PM ET/7 PM local time. A runoff will take place June 21 in contests where no one earns a majority of the vote.
● AL-Sen (R) (62-37 Trump): Three Republicans are fighting for the two spots in the all but assured runoff to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Richard Shelby in this dark red state. The few polls we’ve seen lately have shown former Business Council of Alabama head Katie Britt in first. Shelby himself has gone beyond just endorsing his one-time chief of staff, as he’s used much of his leftover campaign funds to fund a super PAC set up to aid her. The Senate Leadership Fund, which is the super PAC run by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, has also financed Britt’s allies.
Rep. Mo Brooks, meanwhile, had Trump’s support until March, when the MAGA master unceremoniously yanked his "Complete and Total" endorsement after spending months complaining that the far-right congressman was running a weak campaign. Army veteran Mike Durant, who was held as a prisoner of war in Somalia in 1993 during the incident later depicted in the book and film Blackhawk Down, never had (or lost) such big-named allies, but he’s used his personal wealth to get his name out. Durant, like Britt, has also received millions in support from super PACs.
Brooks’ campaign appeared to be completely over after Trump abandoned him, and Britt and Durant have concentrated on attacking one another. However, a recent survey for a pair of Alabama media organizations found Britt leading with 31% but Brooks beating Durant 29-24 for the all-important second-place spot.
● AL-Gov (R) (62-37 Trump): While there’s no question that Republican Gov. Kay Ivey will finish first in the primary, her eight opponents are hoping they can force her into a runoff. Ivey’s main foes are former Ambassador to Slovenia Lindy Blanchard, who has made extensive use of her personal funds, and businessman Tim James, who took a tight third in the 2010 nomination battle for this post.
The primary has devolved into a truly ugly affair, with Blanchard and James running ads accusing the governor of not doing enough to promote the Big Lie and enact transphobic policies. Ivey herself has worked to protect her far-right flank with her own bigoted, conspiracy-filled messaging, and it may be just enough to save her from a second round. A recent media poll showed Ivey taking 48%, while James led Blanchard 16-13 for second.
● AL-05 (R) (62-35 Trump): Six Republicans are facing off to replace Senate candidate Mo Brooks in a northern Alabama constituency that barely changed in redistricting, though most of the focus has been on just two of them. Madison County Commission Dale Strong has used his personal resources to outspend his rivals, but former Department of Defense official Casey Wardynski’s allies at the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus have spent $280,000 on anti-Strong messaging.
The two candidates have attacked one another while ignoring their other rivals, with Strong arguing that Wardynski “deployed a radical re-education program” while he was in charge of the Huntsville City Schools and Wardynski’s side portraying the commissioner as a one-time Trump skeptic. Two other contenders, businessman John Roberts and former state Sen. Paul Sanford, have spent considerably far less, though they may have the name recognition to slip into a likely runoff.
Polls close in most of Texas at 8 PM ET/7 PM local time; the small portion in the Mountain Time Zone closes an hour later.
● TX-15 (D) (51-48 Trump): Army veteran Ruben Ramirez led businesswoman Michelle Vallejo 28-20 in the first round of the primary to succeed Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, a fellow Democrat who decided to run for the considerably safer 34th District after the Republican-run legislature passed a new map that made this Rio Grande Valley seat more conservative. The winner will go up against 2020 nominee Monica De La Cruz, who won the Republican primary outright in March.
While Ramirez has Gonzalez’s endorsement, a mid-April poll from his own allies at 314 Action showed Ramirez trailing Vallejo 49-37. That survey, though, came before Democratic Majority for Israel launched a nearly $500,000 ad campaign on his behalf, and we haven’t seen any fresh numbers since. Vallejo, who is campaigning to Ramirez’s left, has not received any corresponding help.
● TX-28 (D & R) (53-46 Biden): The main event in this Laredo-area seat is the showdown between Rep. Henry Cuellar, who is the last anti-choice Democrat in the House, and progressive attorney Jessica Cisneros. In 2020, Cuellar beat Cisneros 52-48 in a one-on-one matchup, but his 49-47 lead in March wasn’t quite enough to avert a runoff thanks to the presence of a third candidate, Tannya Benavides, who ultimately endorsed Cisneros.
This has been another expensive campaign, with EMILY’s List spending heavily for Cisneros and AIPAC and a group called Mainstream Democrats airing ads for the incumbent. Cisneros and her supporters have focused on portraying Cuellar as an entrenched ally of D.C. interests, and they’ve also used the runoff to attack his longtime opposition to abortion rights. Cuellar’s side in turn has argued both that he’s indispensable to the district and that Cisneros’ agenda would cost the area vital border security jobs while endangering public safety.
Republicans are hoping for an opening in this longtime Democratic stronghold, and both Ted Cruz and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy are united behind former Cruz aide Cassy Garcia. Garcia led 2020 nominee Sandra Whitten, who badly lost to Cuellar last cycle, 24-18 in March.
● TX-30 (D) (78-21 Biden): State Rep. Jasmine Crockett outpaced party operative Jane Hope Hamilton 48-17 in March to succeed retiring Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, who is supporting Crockett to succeed her in this Dallas-based district. Two groups with ties to the crypto industry have spent over $700,000 to promote Crockett, though that’s far less than the $2.5 million they deployed in the first round.
Hamilton, who once again lacks outside support, has run ads trying to turn Crockett’s allies into a liability for voters. Hamilton has also focused on how the family of Botham Jean, a Black man who was murdered by a Dallas police officer in 2018, used an open letter to blast Crockett for "misrepresent[ing] yourself as one of our attorneys" on her website.
● TX-AG (R & D) (52-46 Trump): Republican incumbent Ken Paxton has been the subject of myriad scandals for almost the entire length of his two terms in office, but he looks like the favorite to fend off Land Commissioner George P. Bush. The Trump-endorsed attorney general led Bush, who is the son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 43-23 in March.
Paxton has used the runoff to attack Bush over his attempts to renovate the Alamo, an effort that stirred up a nativist backlash among right-wingers while Bush has implored voters to focus on Paxton’s problems. Recent polls suggest that the incumbent’s pitch is the one that’s breaking through: A pro-Paxton group's survey gave him a 58-31 lead, though an independent poll had him ahead by a considerably smaller 41-35.
The Democratic side is a battle between former ACLU attorney Rochelle Garza and former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski, who is the grandson of Watergate special prosecutor Leon Jaworski. Garza led Jaworski 43-20 in the first round; civil rights attorney Lee Merritt, who took 19%, quickly backed Garza.
Polls close at 8:30 PM ET/7:30 PM local time. A runoff will take place June 21 in contests where no one earns a majority of the vote.
● AR-Sen (R) (62-35 Trump): Republican Sen. John Boozman seemingly has done little to antagonize the conservative base, but he still faces an expensive fight for renomination. His main opponent is Army veteran Jake Bequette, a former football player who had a successful stint as a defensive end with the University of Arkansas in the 2011 season but didn't do nearly so well in a brief career with the New England Patriots.
One person Bequette has impressed, however, is conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein, who has financed a PAC that's spent $1.5 million arguing Boozman is insufficiently conservative. The senator has fired back by reminding voters he has Trump’s endorsement and portraying Bequette as a phony.
The only poll we’ve seen was an early May Hendrix College survey for the local publication Talk Business & Politics that showed Boozman at 45%, just short of what he needs to win outright. Surprisingly, it also showed Bequette edging out gun range owner Jan Morgan just 19-17 for second place even though Morgan has attracted comparably little attention.
Polls close at 9 PM ET/8 PM local time.
● MN-01 (special) (R & D) (54-44 Trump): Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn died in February after a two-year battle with kidney cancer, and a total of 10 Republicans and eight Democrats are competing in their respective primaries to replace him in southern Minnesota. This special election will take place using the district lines that have been in place for the previous decade with the general election on Aug. 9. That's the same day as the primary for the regular two-year term under Minnesota’s new congressional map, which made only small changes to the 1st District.
On the Republican side, outside spending has benefited just two candidates, former Department of Agriculture official Brad Finstad and state Rep. Jeremy Munson. Finstad has the support of American Dream Federal Action, a crypto-aligned group, and Defending Main Street, which is close to the old-line GOP establishment; together, they've spent $2.1 million. Munson, who has long antagonized his party's legislative leaders, has support from Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul's allies at Protect Freedom PAC, a group that’s deployed $1.4 million.
The field also features Hagedorn's widow, Jennifer Carnahan, though she has more than her share of detractors from her chaotic time leading the state party. Other Republican candidates include state Rep. Nels Pierson and former Freeborn County Party Chair Matt Benda, though they’ve spent little.
On the Democratic side, the state party has endorsed Jeff Ettinger, the former CEO of the food processing giant Hormel. The field also includes Richard Painter, a former Republican who served as the White House's ethics lawyer under George W. Bush and badly lost the 2018 Democratic Senate primary to appointed incumbent Tina Smith.