The 2020 election was a historic victory for Democrats.
We defeated Trump (with Biden/Harris thumping a resounding popular vote and electoral college win) we won the slimmest majority in the Senate and we held (barely) the House.
So much of what we’ve accomplished, so far in this Biden admin, is based on those three wins.
But dig a little deeper and we also got our butts kicked.
You might remember that I did a long-running series here in 2020 blogging in support of local, mostly long shot State Legislative candidates in battleground states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin (and Texas and Georgia too!)
Expanding the map and focusing on under-reported races was the goal. Political analysis, and some of the prevailing CW, was indicating we had a real chance to flip state leg chambers in Texas, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
I wasn’t alone in pointing donors and activists to these races. Dailykos, Sister District, the DLCC, and former President Obama all endorsed some of the very same races, while also focusing on more likely winners than I did.
But it did not go our way.
I’ve hesitated to write about how poorly we did downballot, but the facts are the facts.
2020 was a year in which we fared poorly the further down the ticket we went.
In fact, in the 36 long shot races I focused on, Democrats won only 6.
(Where the races I focused on overlapped with mainstream orgs, the track record was similar: the DLCC’s long shot picks were 3 for 18, Dailykos went 3 for 19 in these long shot races, Sister District 4 for 12...and Barack Obama was 4 for 22.)
Sister District’s Gabby Goldstein and Mallory Roman did an analysis looking into factors like gerrymandering, roll-off, ticket splitting, and enthusiasm/awareness, you can dig into the details here but they key quote is below:
It appears that there were a significant number of people who voted for Biden (regardless of the voter’s party registration), who either voted for Republican state legislators (split their ticket) or who did not vote for any state leg candidate (rolled off).
The bottom line, all of those factors contributed to Democrats faring more poorly down ticket than we might have, and we did not flip the state leg houses we hoped to in 2020.
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Now, obviously, that upset me and all of us who worked on these races. But our silver lining was that our contributions in these state races overlapped to help Biden/Harris win the Presidency and help Democrats take the Senate and hold the House.
But what has that meant for how I view 2022?
First of all, there’s been no prevailing buzz or strategists indicating that we will sweep or flip state houses in 2022. This was always going to be a tough year for Democrats.
But there has been a seismic change in the shape and feel of this election due to the Dobbs decision and the subsequent enacting of draconian Abortion bans in states like Texas and Indiana.
Voters in Kansas and in NY-19, in particular, delivered victories to our side that augur for a sea change in the works. This may well be a battle royale.
Should we now all “flip on” and begin to target state leg races in hopes of finding a Blue Wave hidden at the grassroots? Should I relaunch my blog series in hopes of making an impact?
My careful answer, personally, can be defined by what I’ve chosen to do with my donations and volunteering. Especially given the fact that I’m based here in Northern CA. And it’s this.
1. In 2022, we have been donating to local state parties every month. (NV, AZ, WI, MI, PA, OH, GA, and NC.) With the recent good news, we’ve added a significant one-time late-summer kicker, to boot.
2. Locally, we’ve been active with local Sister District chapters, a Swing Left group, and a local letter-writing campaign. While we help build infrastructure out of state, we’re still staying active and organizing locally here in CA.
But beyond that, I’m not going to do any blogging or targeting online for local candidates in other states this year.
The rationale here is simple, and in part, based on what I learned targeting and talking to locals on the ground in 2020.
It is very hard to target state races from a distance. (And in a year where it swings against us, it can really stink!)
I know the factors I use to judge campaigns when I can meet the candidate or campaign manager in person: do they have a track record running for office and winning votes in the district, do they have a well-maintained and engaged email list for fundraising and volunteer activation, do they actively work the doors and talk to voters, is the candidate a great advocate for one or two key issues that voters care about and provide a clear contrast with their opponent? Do I like and support the candidate? Are their politics at least as progressive as their district?
It is very hard to assess all of these factors from a distance. And experts aren’t always helpful!
I’ve done plenty of conversations with national strategists, local candidates, local activists, local bloggers, national bloggers, local unions and even people who know the ins and outs of their state party. Everybody has an angle, but the truth is, an on the ground assessment is very hard to come by.
So, in part in response to 2020, I’ve come to realize that State Democratic parties are a more than solid destination for our donation dollars at this time. (Especially with states like PA, OH, WI and Arizona all showing some real innovation and energy...and voter registration surging and people getting active in district after district across the country!)
We all know how important these states will be in 2024, and many of them are crucial in the Senate elections and battleground House Seats in 2022. Our “out of state donor” dollars help build and sustain the infrastructure in state that will help Democrats, regardless of the outcome of a specific election or fate of a single candidate.
The conclusion I’ve come to is that the best bang for my buck, and the best marginal use of my time, at this time is to give directly to the people who know the most and are in the best position to make the hard choices about what they need to do to win.
It’s not perfect, esp. since it’s always a thrill when an underdog candidate you support wins. And, with our local activism, it’s definitely not the only thing we’re doing.
But the Democratic State Parties below are my steady donation destination for 2022, and, in the meantime instead of blogging like a madman like I did in 2020, I’ll be writing letters and getting active with Sister District and Swing Left locally.
NV, AZ, WI, MI, PA, OH, GA, and NC.
