The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
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LEADING OFF
● AZ-03: Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego kicked off his long-awaited Senate campaign on Monday, and plenty of fellow Democrats are looking at running to succeed him in a majority Latino constituency that's by far the bluest U.S. House district in the state. The 3rd District, which is based in downtown and western Phoenix, includes most of the territory that made up the 7th District under the old congressional map (yes, we're still writing AZ-07 on our checks too), and it supported Joe Biden by a massive 75-24 margin.
One Democrat who says she's considering a bid to replace Gallego is Phoenix City Councilmember Laura Pastor, who comes from a family that has clashed with the congressman in the past. Her late father, Ed Pastor, became the Grand Canyon State's first Latino member of Congress when he won a 1991 special election for a constituency that at the time stretched from Phoenix to take in Yuma and parts of Tucson well to the south. Laura Pastor ran for the City Council in 2007 but lost to Michael Nowakowski, whose effort was managed by none other than Gallego, after what The Arizona Republic years later characterized as "a bruising campaign."
The younger Pastor won a Council seat in 2013 against a different opponent, and she decided against running to take her father's place in D.C. when he announced his retirement the next year. The congressman ultimately backed Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox in the primary, but then-state Rep. Gallego still beat her 48-36; Ed Pastor went on to speak well of his successor, who he predicted could someday be speaker of the House.
Gallego, though, has made it clear for years that he wants to be in the Senate, and Laura Pastor has been talked about as a possible candidate to replace him for a while. Indeed, the councilmember generated attention in December of 2021 when she urged the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission to revise its proposed congressional map to place a heavily Latino part of Phoenix in Gallego's seat, a change that would have made Republican Rep. David Schweikert's new 1st District reliably red.
Pastor, who represented most of this area, said that she was acting to make sure the city's "historic core," heavily LGBTQ neighborhoods, and other locations weren't split; however, skeptics argued she was willing to protect Schweikert in order to boost her own prospects in a future contest to succeed Gallego. But the dramatic changes Pastor wanted didn't happen, and Schweikert went on to only narrowly win re-election.
Pastor isn't the only Democrat talking about running for Congress, though, as both Phoenix City Council member Yassamin Ansari and former state House Minority Leader Reginald Bolding tell Axios's Jeremy Duda that they're interested. Ansari is the first Iranian American elected to office in the state, while Bolding would be Arizona's first Black member of Congress. Bolding last year campaigned for secretary of state but lost the primary 53-47 to Adrian Fontes, who went on to win the post in the fall.
Both Duda and the Arizona Republic’s Tara Kavaler also offer some other names as possibilities:
- former state Rep. Cesar Chavez
- U.S. Senate staffer Luis Heredia
- State Sen. Catherine Miranda
- State Senate Minority Leader Raquel Terán
- State Corporation Commissioner Anna Tovar
Miranda, who endorsed Republican Doug Ducey when he first ran for governor in 2014, challenged Gallego for renomination in 2018 but lost in a 75-25 landslide. That wasn’t the end of her career, though, as she won back a spot in the state Senate last year. Heredia, for his part, serves as state director for Sen. Mark Kelly.
Finally, Maricopa County Supervisor Steve Gallardo said he wouldn't run for Congress, but not everyone is taking his no as final. Duda writes that there's speculation that Gallardo could switch course if he loses this weekend's vote to replace Terán as state party chair.
Senate
● CA-Sen, MT-Sen: California Sen. Dianne Feinstein said last week she'd decide whether to seek re-election in the "next couple months" while her fellow Democrat, Montana Sen. Jon Tester, said Tuesday he'd make up his mind before the end of the first quarter of the year.
Governors
● LA-Gov: East Baton Rouge Parish District Attorney Hillar Moore tells The Advocate that he'll decide next week if he'll run for governor while his fellow Democrat, state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson, says he's in the "final leg of due diligence" himself.
Another Democrat, activist Gary Chambers, ruled out a bid in November following his 62-18 loss to GOP Sen. John Kennedy, but he's reconsidering now that state Democratic Party Chair Katie Bernhardt is starring in TV ads foreshadowing her own potential campaign. "People are calling me because they want a candidate who can run a race and build energy," he told LaPolitics, adding, "Katie keeps losing and she may be losing her mind if she thinks she will be governor." However, Chambers used a separate interview to tout Wilson to The Advocate, so it doesn't sound like he'd take on the transportation secretary in the October all-party primary.
House
● CA-47: Dom Jones, a business owner and local Democratic activist who competed on "The Amazing Race" last year, has joined the top-two primary to succeed Democratic Senate candidate Katie Porter. Another prospective Democratic candidate is Lori Kirkland Baker, an Emmy-winning producer who has filed paperwork with the FEC.
The contest already included two Democrats, state Sen. Dave Min and former Rep. Harley Rouda, as well as Porter's 2022 foe, former Orange County GOP chair Scott Baugh. A packed Democratic field could give Republicans a chance to secure both general election spots, though it remains to be seen if a second viable GOP contender will get in.
Mayors
● Chicago, IL Mayor: Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot has released an internal from GBAO that finds her taking first place in the Feb. 28 nonpartisan primary as former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas, who the incumbent says is the candidate she most wants to face in an April runoff, edges out Rep. Chuy Garcia for second. The numbers are below, with the results of a previously unreleased GBAO poll conducted last month in parenthesis:
Mayor Lori Lightfoot: 25 (26)
former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas: 22 (14)
Rep. Chuy Garcia: 18 (25)
Wealthy perennial candidate Willie Wilson: 11 (14)
Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson: 9 (4)
State Rep. Kam Buckner: 2 (3)
Alderman Sophia King: 2 (2)
We’ve seen two other surveys from this month, and there’s no consensus on the state of the race. An internal for King from Lester & Associates put Garcia in first with 21% as Lightfoot edged out Vallas 15-10 for the second-place spot; King and Johnson were just behind with 8% each.
However, a poll from M3 Strategies for a group called Americans for a Safer and Better Tomorrow, which has not made it clear who it's backing, put Vallas in front with 26% as Garcia beat out Johnson 19-12 for second. That survey also placed Lightfoot in fourth place with just 10%.
Lightfoot, though, is releasing this GBAO poll to argue that, not only does she have a strong chance to make it out of next month's nonpartisan primary, she can also get the opponent she wants. "[F]olks, I would love to have Paul Vallas as my runoff challenger," the mayor said, and while she didn't elaborate, her campaign recently demonstrated how it would go after Vallas if it gets the chance.
While Vallas, like most politicians in this dark blue city, identifies as a Democrat, he accepted an endorsement earlier this month from the Chicago Fraternal Order of Police, a police union led by prominent Trump supporter John Catanzara. Lightfoot's team quickly responded that Vallas "should denounce Catanzara's "history of hate-filled rhetoric" instead of "standing alongside him and (carrying) the shared MAGA values into City Hall."
Politico notes that this new Lightfoot survey comes at a time when the incumbent has been running commercials promoting herself and tying Garcia to two disgraced figures, former crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried and former Illinois state House Speaker Michael Madigan. Vallas, by contrast, has not been on the receiving end of any TV attack ads even as he's run his own positive messages, while Garcia has yet to take to the airwaves. AdImpact, however, reports that the congressman's first spots will debut Wednesday.
● Philadelphia, PA Mayor: Former City Controller Rebecca Rhynhart this week publicized an endorsement from former Mayor John Street, who led the city from 2000 to 2008, ahead of the May Democratic primary. So far, Street is the only former mayor to take sides in the contest to succeed termed-out incumbent Jim Kenney, who also has not backed anyone.
