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Leading Off
● NC Redistricting: North Carolina Republicans unveiled new congressional and legislative maps on Wednesday that would rank as some of the most extreme gerrymanders in the country. The new proposals would cost three to four House Democrats their seats in Congress and lock in GOP majorities in the legislature in this longtime swing state. And in the near term, there's little Democrats can do to stop them.
Republicans put forth a pair of congressional maps that would both upend the state's House delegation, which currently includes seven Democrats and seven Republicans thanks to a court-drawn plan. Instead, if these new maps go into effect, North Carolina would almost certainly send 10 or 11 Republicans to Washington and just three or four Democrats.
The GOP's legislative maps, meanwhile, would turbocharge their existing gerrymanders and make it effectively impossible for Democrats to secure majorities, even though they're routinely capable of winning statewide elections. (The current governor, Roy Cooper, is a Democrat, as is Attorney General Josh Stein, who is running to succeed Cooper next year.)
Even worse, the new proposals would likely ensure that, in all but the most Democratic of election years, Republicans would maintain the three-fifths supermajorities they'd need to override gubernatorial vetoes and to place constitutional amendments on the ballot.
The GOP's two different congressional maps aim to elect 10, if not 11, Republicans. The maps would do this by packing Democrats into three overwhelmingly blue districts while meticulously spreading out Republican voters to ensure their own seats are just red enough to be safe without wasting GOP votes. The maps' approaches differ somewhat, even though their end goal is the same: One of the maps features 11 safely Republican seats, while the other would have 10 solidly red seats and one GOP-trending swing district.
Both maps would make it all but impossible for Democratic Reps. Jeff Jackson, Kathy Manning, and Wiley Nickel to win reelection by giving them districts that Donald Trump would have carried by double-digit margins in 2020. The maps also target 1st District Rep. Don Davis but in different ways. The first map would draw him and fellow Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee into the same heavily blue district, guaranteeing the state would lose one of its three Black members. And the second map would place Davis in a district that would have voted just 50-49 for Joe Biden in 2020 and 52-46 for Republican Sen. Ted Budd in 2022.
Republicans held committee hearings on their new maps on Thursday and have previously said they could pass them into law as early as next week. While none of the targeted Democrats have announced what they'll do in response to the new maps, Jackson strongly implied he wouldn't seek reelection. Should either map pass, he said in his newsletter Thursday, "I'm completely toast," calling both plans "absolutely brutal gerrymanders."
Before the new maps were released, Jackson had refused to rule out running for state attorney general to succeed Stein, so the GOP's decision to target him could come back to haunt Republicans as they seek to win the post at the ballot box for the first time since 1896.
Nickel also blasted the maps, saying they would allow Republicans "to hand-pick their voters and predetermine the outcome of elections before they ever happen," though he didn't address his own future. Davis was noncommittal, saying only that he was "reviewing both maps." Manning, meanwhile, had said last week that she would run for a third term, though she doesn't appear to have said anything about the new proposals yet.
While many Republicans could run for these new, gerrymandered districts, one is of particular note. Tim Moore, the powerful speaker of the state House, has long been rumored to be interested in running for Congress. He refused to rule out the prospect when he announced earlier this year that he would not seek reelection. Very conveniently for Moore, both proposed maps would dismantle Jackson's solidly blue 14th District and create a new district west of Charlotte that would be safely Republican and include Moore's home base—but no GOP incumbent.
North Carolina is in this situation due to critical elections for the state Supreme Court that Republicans won by modest margins last fall and in 2020. Those victories allowed them to turn what had been a 4-3 majority for Democrats last year into a 5-2 GOP advantage that Republicans swiftly used to reverse a series of major rulings in favor of voting rights.
One of those decisions by the previous Democratic majority had struck down the GOP's maps for both Congress and the state Senate, ruling that partisan gerrymandering violated the state constitution. However, the new GOP-run court took the unprecedented step of rehearing the case months later and overturned the court's prior ruling. That immediately paved the way for a new round of Republican gerrymandering.
That decision echoed a similar one issued by the U.S. Supreme Court a few years earlier when it prohibited voters from challenging gerrymanders in federal court. That leaves North Carolina Democrats with only one realistic path to undo this state of affairs: retaking the state Supreme Court. However, the earliest that would be possible, barring unexpected vacancies, would be five years from now. To prevail, Democrats would have to win four of the next five court elections between 2024 and 2028. Democrats are defending one seat each in 2024 and 2026, while three Republican seats will be up in 2028.
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Redistricting
● LA Redistricting: The Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a request by Voting Rights Act plaintiffs to let a lower court proceed with a canceled hearing, which a panel of appellate judges blocked last month as supposedly premature, on how Louisiana should redraw its congressional map to create a second majority-Black district. The lower court had blocked the GOP's gerrymander last year for discriminating against Black voters, but the Supreme Court let Louisiana use it anyway while the GOP appealed, and additional delays raise the risk of the Supreme Court eventually saying it's too late to use a new map for 2024.
However, liberal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson wrote a concurring opinion saying that the lower court could still proceed on a slower timeline since GOP legislators told the Supreme Court that they won't draw a replacement map while they're still appealing the lower court's decision. A separate panel of appellate judges recently heard the GOP's appeal regarding the merits of that lower court ruling and could issue its own decision soon.
Senate
● CA-Sen: Democratic Sen. Laphonza Butler told the New York Times Thursday that she would not run for a full term next year, a declaration that came 18 days after Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed her to succeed the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.
Butler, who is the first lesbian of color to serve in the upper chamber, informed the paper that, while she would be "the loudest, proudest champion of California," she felt "this is not the greatest use of my voice." We may see her name on a future ballot, though, as Politico speculated last week that she could run to succeed Newsom in 2026 if she decided not to remain in the upper chamber.
Butler's decision means that this will remain an open seat race to represent America's most populous state, though all three of the Democratic House members running here already made it clear that they would stay in the March top-two primary no matter what the incumbent did. Adam Schiff began the race with a huge financial edge over fellow Rep. Katie Porter, and that continued through the third quarter: Schiff outraised his colleague $5.9 million to $3.4 million, and he finished September with a $32 million to $12 million cash on hand lead.
A special election for the final months of Feinstein's term will take place concurrently with both rounds of the regular contest, and as Politico previously noted, that could give Schiff the chance to expand his fundraising edge even further. That's because the special is technically a separate contest, so individual donors are now free to give twice as much as the federal maximum of $6,600 per candidate.
The rest of the field is not in such a good position to take advantage of this, though. Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee took in only $1 million for the third quarter, and she ended it with a similar $1.3 million in the bank. That's still better than a fourth Democrat, businesswoman Lexi Reese: She hauled in $460,000 from donors and self-funded another $250,000, which left her with $660,000 on hand.
● FL-Sen: While state Sen. Shevrin Jones expressed interest in challenging GOP incumbent Rick Scott back in May, he declared this week that he was instead backing former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the Democratic primary.
● WV-Sen: Donald Trump on Wednesday night endorsed Gov. Jim Justice, who already enjoyed a huge financial and polling lead over Rep. Alex Mooney in the GOP primary. The party's master has supported both men in the past: Justice infamously used a 2017 Trump rally to announce he was leaving the Democratic Party to become a Republican again, while Trump's support for Mooney helped the congressman win his 2022 primary against fellow incumbent David McKinley.
House
● AL-01: While Rep. Barry Moore initially said in late September that he'd decide whether or not to go up against fellow Republican incumbent Jerry Carl "once we get a map," Moore told conservative radio host Jeff Poor on Wednesday that he still remains undecided. "[L]isten, you know, my priority right now is to get Jim Jordan as speaker," he declared, "We've got some time to qualify and decide what we're going to do." The filing deadline is Nov. 10.
If Moore does go up against Carl for the GOP nod in this dark red seat, he'd face both a financial and geographic disadvantage. Carl finished September with a $870,000 to $650,000 cash on hand lead, and he also represents 59% of the redrawn seat to Moore's 41%. It's possible, though, that the Club for Growth could come to Moore's aid: The hardline group spent over $700,000 on ads to help him win his 2020 primary, while it deployed $1.4 million that cycle in an unsuccessful drive to help one of Carl's intra-party foes.
● AZ-08: State Sen. Shawnna Bolick says she will not enter the primary to succeed her fellow Republican, retiring Rep. Debbie Lesko. Bolick, who championed a bill that would have allowed the state legislature to decertify the state's presidential results at any point before Inauguration Day, holds a legislative seat that Donald Trump carried only 50-48, and she could be a Democratic target next year.
● IA-02: Disability rights activist Sarah Corkery on Wednesday became the first Democrat to announce a campaign for what will be a tough race against Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson. This northeastern Iowa seat favored Donald Trump by a small 51-47 in 2020, but Hinson turned back a challenge from Democratic state Sen. Liz Mathis 54-46 two years later. The incumbent finished September with $1.3 million in the bank.
● MT-02: Former state Sen. Ed Walker announced Wednesday that he would run for this safely red seat in eastern Montana, and the National Journal notes that he did not address what he'd do if his fellow Republican, incumbent Matt Rosendale, decides to seek reelection rather than run for the Senate.
Walker won his only term in the legislature in 2010 and served as one of the directors of a dark money organization that was involved in a 2012 state Supreme Court contest. Walker retired from office in 2014 but later tried to get to Congress by competing in the 2017 special election for what was at the time Montana's only House seat; party delegates, though, opted instead to nominate now-Gov. Greg Gianforte. Walker later signed on as the state chair for U.S. Term Limits.
Ballot Measures
● OH Ballot: AdImpact reports that the side working to pass Issue 1, which would amend the Ohio constitution to broadly guarantee reproductive freedom, is now outspending conservatives on the air after trailing two weeks ago. AdImpact says that, with future reservations factored in, the "yes" side has a $12.1 million to $10.5 million edge, a shift from the previous $6.9 million to $5.3 million advantage for "no." A recent poll from Baldwin Wallace University and SurveyUSA found Issue 1 winning 58-34.
Judges
● PA Supreme Court: AdImpact relays that Democrat Dan McCaffery and his allies have outspent Republican Carolyn Carluccio's side $4.2 million to $3.2 million in advertising, a figure that includes reservations.
Mayors and County Leaders
● Maricopa County, AZ Board of Supervisors: Tempe City Council member Joel Navarro announced Wednesday he'll seek the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Supervisor Jack Sellers, a declaration that comes as Democrats are looking to take their first majority in more than half a century on the five-member body that governs Arizona's largest county. Navarro, though, argued to Axios' Jeremy Duda that he won't actually be running against Sellers because a far-right Republican will deny the incumbent renomination.
Navarro predicted that the person he'd really be facing next fall is state Sen. Jake Hoffman, a 2020 fraudulent elector who heads the extremist Arizona Freedom Caucus and unsuccessfully tried to pass a bill this year to gerrymander Maricopa into four separate counties to ensure Republicans remained in control of three of them. Facebook also previously banned one of his companies during the last presidential election for running a pro-Trump "troll farm." Hoffman responded to Axios' inquiries about a possible campaign against Sellers by saying, "You need better sources," though Duda notes he didn't actually say no.
Sellers, by contrast, has said he'll seek reelection to the 1st District, which supported Joe Biden 51-48 according to Dave's Redistricting App, and Navarro doesn't sound at all interested in trying to unseat him. The council member instead said the incumbent is doing a "wonderful job" even as he predicted Sellers wouldn't be the GOP nominee.
The GOP currently holds a 4-1 majority, but Democrats already have a strong pickup opportunity following GOP incumbent Bill Gates' decision to retire from District 3 in June. Former Phoenix City Council member Daniel Valenzuela, who lost the 2019 race to mayor to fellow Democrat Kate Gallego, is running to flip the seat, and two Republicans are also in: former state Sen. Kate Brophy McGee, who narrowly lost reelection in 2020, and attorney Tabatha LaVoie. Biden won 54-45 here.
● Sacramento, CA Mayor: Assemblyman Kevin McCarty this week earned an endorsement from the Sacramento Central Labor Council, which the Sacramento Bee's Theresa Clift describes as "one of the most significant endorsements candidates can win in local races," for the March nonpartisan primary to succeed retiring Mayor Darrell Steinberg. McCarty, whose social media profile declares, "NOT Kevin McCartHy, Seriously!" is one of four notable Democrats campaigning to lead California's loyally blue capital city, and his three rivals all have notable backers as well.
Former City Councilman Steve Hansen, who would be Sacramento's first gay mayor, got the support of the Sacramento Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce's PAC last month, and Clift predicted this seal of approval would be a boon to his fundraising. Hansen also has the backing of the Sacramento Association of Realtors and the Sacramento Police Officers Association. Hansen was last on the ballot in 2020 when he lost reelection 53-47 against Katie Valenzuela.
Another candidate to watch is former state Sen. Richard Pan, who was termed out last year. Pan, who would be the first Asian American elected to this post (Jimmie Yee was appointed in 1999 after the incumbent died), has Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho in his corner.
Rounding out the field is physician Flojaune Cofer, who would be the first Black woman to lead Sacramento. Cofer is the endorsed candidate of the local Democratic Socialists of America, and she was the only member of this group to launch a campaign before Steinberg confirmed he would retire.
Filing closes in December, and it's possible the field could change before then. A November general election would take place in the likely event that no one earns a majority of the vote in March.
Ad Roundup
