Arizona Rep. Debbie Lesko unexpectedly filed to run on Friday for a reliably red open seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, a move that comes as mainstream Democrats and Republican election-deniers are each hoping to take control of the five-member body that governs the state's largest county.
Should Lesko, who announced her retirement from Congress in October, follow through and launch a campaign, a win for her would be a victory for those far-right forces. The congresswoman belongs to the nihilistic Freedom Caucus, and she's consistently supported her party's most extreme positions, including voting to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
By contrast, the man Lesko is hoping to replace, Supervisor Clint Hickman, is part of the GOP majority that has faced years of harassment from promoters of the Big Lie. Last year, an Iowa man was sentenced to two and a half years in prison for sending death threats to Hickman and other officeholders.
"I certainly hope that this is over for me and my family," the supervisor told the Arizona Republic after the punishment was handed down, only to add, "I don't know if it is." Hickman said Thursday that he would not seek reelection, a declaration that came a day before Lesko submitted her paperwork.
While Lesko did not immediately announce a campaign, she already appears well-positioned to succeed Hickman in Maricopa's 4th District. Three other Republicans were running in the July 30 primary before Hickman announced his retirement, but they're likely to have a tough time getting past Lesko, whose 8th Congressional District includes much of the same territory.
Hickman's seat, which includes many of Phoenix's northwestern suburbs, favored Donald Trump 57-42 in 2020, according to data from Dave's Redistricting App. Therefore, the general election for his constituency will probably be uneventful.
But Democrats are hoping to flip at least two other seats in their quest to transform the current 4-1 Republican edge into their first majority since 1964. Joe Biden's 50-48 victory in Maricopa County in 2020 made him the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry it since Harry Truman in 1948, and a Democrat-led Board of Supervisors would represent another milestone in this longtime conservative stronghold.
To achieve that goal, Democrats need to take the two Republican-held seats that Biden won in 2020. One of those is currently represented by Supervisor Bill Gates, who, like Hickman, announced his retirement after years of extreme harassment from far-right conspiracy theorists. Democrats have lined up behind former Phoenix City Council member Daniel Valenzuela in his quest to flip the 3rd District, which backed Biden 54-45.
The GOP primary pits former state Sen. Kate Brophy McGee against attorney Tabatha LaVoie. Brophy McGee, according to the Arizona Republic's Abe Kwok, is a relative moderate, while LaVoie, echoing language used by many on the right, warns on her website that Maricopa "cannot continue to raise doubts about the integrity of our elections." (There is no evidence that Maricopa's elections have been anything but free and fair.)
Republican Supervisor Jack Sellers, meanwhile, is seeking reelection in the 1st District, which went for Biden by a narrower 51-48 margin, even though he's also been the target of far-right hostility. Tempe City Council member Joel Navarro launched a bid for the Democratic nod in October, but he predicted to Axios at the time that he wouldn't wind up facing Sellers. Navarro instead said he expects a far-right Republican, state Sen. Jake Hoffman, to deny the incumbent renomination.
But Hoffman, a fraudulent Trump elector who heads the Arizona Freedom Caucus, has not joined the GOP primary yet, nor have any other big names. The filing deadline isn't until April 1, though, so there's still time for this contest to develop the way Navarro thinks it will.
The remaining Republican supervisor is Tom Galvin, who was appointed in 2021 and won a primary the following year against foes who promoted election conspiracy theories. "I wasn't there during much of the response to the 2020 election, but my three opponents tried to make it about that," he told the Arizona Republic in 2022, "and frankly, their platforms and their campaigns, from all three of them, was just based on lies, and what I did was I met with folks and I told the truth."
Galvin this time faces intraparty opposition from former state Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita, who sponsored aggressive voting restrictions in Arizona following the 2020 elections. Trump carried the 2nd District, which includes the cities of Mesa and Scottsdale, 53-46, so this seat is unlikely to determine control of the board.
The final constituency is held by the body's sole Democrat, Steve Gallardo, whose 5th District favored Biden 68-31. Gallardo is bullish about his party's prospects, saying last year that he's "looking forward to becoming the Chairman" of the board following the 2024 elections.
Correction: This story misidentified the district number of the seat Supervisor Bill Gates is retiring from. That seat is the 3rd District, not the 4th District.
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