The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● 4Q Fundraising: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to unveil our new charts rounding up fundraising numbers for the House and Senate for the fourth quarter of 2023. Our data includes figures for every incumbent (excluding those who've said they're not seeking reelection) and notable announced or potential candidates.
The first downballot primaries of the year will be upon us in just a month, and every year, many House incumbents draw challenges from fellow party members who'd like to deny them renomination for a wide variety of reasons. Most of these challenges will fail, but some representatives will face tough battles. With these new fundraising figures in hand, we now have a better sense of which primaries are the ones to watch.
Read Jeff Singer's analysis of three of the biggest intra-party showdowns coming our way, featuring well-funded challengers and vulnerable incumbents.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Election conspiracy theorist Kari Lake has publicized a poll from the GOP firm JL Partners that gives her a small lead against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, whether or not independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema seeks reelection. Lake edges out Gallego 46-44 in a head-to-head, while she posts a 40-39 advantage in a three-way race as Sinema grabs 13%. The sample favors Donald Trump 45-41.
The only other survey we've seen this year came from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling on behalf of the progressive Replace Sinema PAC, and those early January numbers also showed a tight race with or without Sinema. That poll found Gallego with a 36-35 edge in a three-person field, with the incumbent taking 17%; in a one-on-one matchup, however, Lake led 46-45.
● CA-Sen: Former Sen. Barbara Boxer informed Fox 40 on Thursday that she's endorsing her fellow Democrat, Rep. Adam Schiff, in the March 5 top-two primary. Boxer, who retired in 2017 after 24 years in the upper chamber, previously declared that she'd remain neutral. However, she told the station she was changing course because she was unhappy with comments that Democratic Rep. Katie Porter had made about Schiff.
"She accused him of taking 'dirty money,'" the former senator said of Porter, who attacked Schiff at a debate for accepting contributions from oil companies. "Adam is playing by the rules of the game. Katie Porter, if she doesn’t take PAC money, that’s fine. But don’t go after a fellow Democrat after you’ve taken his money in the past for your House race and say he’s taking dirty money."
Boxer, who along with the late Dianne Feinstein was the first woman elected to represent California in the upper chamber, also defended Schiff as a supporter of women. Her comments came shortly after Porter accused Schiff of "boxing out qualified Democratic women candidates" by running an ad designed to help the main Republican in the race, former Major League Baseball player Steve Garvey, overtake her in the chase for a spot in the general election.
"He’s a great guy and he’s been side by side with us every step of the way," Boxer said of Schiff, "So yes, this has pushed me over the line."
● NJ-Sen: Fairleigh Dickinson University is out with the first independent poll of the June 4 Democratic primary, which shows Rep. Andy Kim leading former financier Tammy Murphy 32-20. Another 9% goes to indicted Sen. Robert Menendez, while labor Patricia Campos-Medina takes 8%; the remaining 31% are undecided. The survey was conducted by Braun Research.
Kim released multiple polls last fall giving him a larger advantage against Murphy, who has not responded with her own numbers. But numbers similarly showed Menendez, who is set to go on trial in May, in a distant third place. The senator has not said if he'll run again, but most of his donors have given up on him: Menendez took in a negative sum of money during the fourth quarter because he refunded more cash ($16,200) than he raised (all of $15,795).
Governors
● WA-Gov: Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson on Thursday won the endorsement of the Washington State Labor Council, an AFL-CIO affiliate that calls itself the state's "largest labor organization."
House
● AL-02: Former U.S. Department of Justice official Shomari Figures has released an internal poll of the March 5 Democratic primary from Lester & Associates that shows him advancing to an April 16 runoff, though almost half of respondents are still undecided:
- State Rep. Napoleon Bracy: 16
- Former U.S. Department of Justice official Shomari Figures: 13
- State House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels: 8
- State Sen. Merika Coleman: 6
- 2020 nominee James Averhart: 4
- State Rep. Jeremy Gray: 3
- State Rep. Juandalynn Givan: 1
- Undecided: 49
This is the first survey we've seen this year of the Democratic primary contest for the radically revamped 2nd District, which would have favored Joe Biden 56-43.
● CO-05: Douglas Bruce, an anti-tax crusader who passed the state's "Taxpayer's Bill of Rights" two decades before beginning the first of two prison stints, tells Colorado Politics that he's "strongly leaning toward" joining the June 25 Republican primary for this open seat.
"I was a big fan of Doug Lamborn," Bruce said of the retiring GOP congressman (who didn't actually seem to have many fans), "and I think one Doug deserves another." Ernest Luning writes that Bruce intends to make a decision "within weeks."
In 1992, Bruce spearheaded a state constitutional amendment that, among other things, requires voter approval for most tax increases. It also requires any excess revenues to be returned to taxpayers, hampering the state's ability to create a proper rainy-day fund. Bruce was later elected to the El Paso County Board of Commissioners in 2004 and appointed to the state House in 2007, but things began going wrong for him the very day he was sworn in.
The new legislator kicked a news photographer and refused to apologize, and he soon became the first member in the history of the chamber to be censured by his colleagues. Bruce lost his primary for a full term later that year, yet he soon had larger worries. He spent 104 days in prison following his 2012 conviction for tax evasion, then served another 180 days behind bars four years later for violating his probation. Luning says that Bruce "maintains his innocence."
● MO-03: Former state Sen. Bob Onder announced Friday that he would drop his bid for lieutenant governor to instead run for the House seat held by retiring Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, the man who beat him in the 2008 Republican primary for the now-defunct 9th Congressional District. Onder joins state Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman in the Aug. 6 GOP primary for the safely red 3rd District.
Onder was a state representative 16 years ago when he sought to replace Rep. Kenny Hulshof, who gave up the 9th to wage a disastrous bid for governor. Onder and Luetkemeyer, who was the state's tourism director, soon emerged as the frontrunners in the five-person field. Onder's backers at the anti-tax Club for Growth aired commercials attacking his main rival, but Luetkemeyer's support from the influential Missouri Right to Life helped him win the nomination 40-29.
That setback was not the end of Onder's political career, though, as he returned to the state legislature after winning a state Senate race in 2014. In the Capitol, he joined the legislature's extremist Conservative Caucus, which dissolved two years ago but has since been succeeded by a group calling itself the Freedom Caucus (one of many that have recently sprung up at the state level). As a lawmaker, Onder made a name for himself as an anti-abortion zealot, a distinction he shares with Coleman.
After getting termed out last cycle, Onder briefly ran for St. Louis County executive before setting his sights on running for lieutenant governor in 2024. The candidate, who also works as a physician, self-funded $500,000 for that now-abandoned effort.
● NY-03: New fundraising reports show Democrat Tom Suozzi with a huge edge over Republican Mazi Pilip in the Feb. 13 special election for New York's vacant 3rd Congressional District. Suozzi outpaced Pilip $4.5 million to $1.3 million, and he ended this period with a $2.2 million to $629,000 cash on hand advantage. (Unlike fourth-quarter fundraising reports that most campaigns recently filed, these reports span the period from Oct. 1 through Jan. 24.)
Politico's Steven Shepard writes that, according to data from AdImpact, Democrats have now spent or reserved $9.8 million on ads compared to $6.2 million for the GOP. Shepard also notes that, because FCC regulations give candidates—but not outside groups—discounted rates on TV and radio, Suozzi's superior fundraising means that "those numbers actually understate Democrats’ TV ad advantage."
Ballot Measures
● CA Ballot: The California state Senate voted 31-7 on Thursday to advance a constitutional amendment that would rework the state's recall elections process. The plan requires the support of at least two-thirds of the Assembly before it can go to voters in November.
Should this amendment go into effect, voters in future recall elections would be presented with a "yes" or "no" question asking whether an election official should be removed. If a majority opts for "yes," another election would take place at a later date to choose a successor. The amendment also specifies that, if the governor were recalled, the lieutenant governor would assume the top job until a replacement is elected.
Under the Golden State's current setup, voters are asked whether an office-holder should be recalled at the same time they're asked who their replacement should be. If "yes" prevails, the replacement candidate with the most votes takes over even if they're short of a majority.
● OH Ballot: Supporters of a ballot initiative that would amend Ohio's constitution to protect and expand voting rights have filed a lawsuit with the state Supreme Court after Republican Attorney General Dave Yost rejected their proposed title for the measure, which they've dubbed the "Ohio Voters Bill of Rights."
Yost claimed the title was misleading, but the lawsuit argues he overstepped his authority and can only determine whether reformers' summary of the amendment's provisions is accurate. Yost's delays have prevented organizers from beginning to gather voter signatures ahead of the initial July 3 deadline to get onto November's ballot.
Legislatures
● WI Redistricting: The two redistricting experts who were appointed by Wisconsin's Supreme Court to evaluate proposed new legislative maps, Bernard Grofman and Jonathan Cervas, issued a report on Thursday analyzing plans submitted by the parties and interested outsiders but did not recommend any specific proposal for adoption.
The two, however, did conclude that the maps from legislative Republicans and the conservative Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty both constituted "partisan gerrymanders" and should be rejected. The remaining four sets of maps include submissions from Democratic lawmakers, plaintiffs, and academics.
Grofman and Cervas informed the court that they could modify any of those four proposals if needed to better satisfy the court's criteria, which include political neutrality along with other traditional nonpartisan considerations. However, the pair would only draw their own maps if directed by the justices. Parties have until Feb. 8 to file any briefs in response to the report, and the court could rule soon thereafter.
Ad Roundup
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