The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast
Leading Off
From Daily Kos Elections' David Nir:
Senate
● CA-Sen: Analyst Rob Pyers flags that the FairShake, a super PAC funded by the crypto industry, has deployed an additional $3.2 million against Democratic Rep. Katie Porter ahead of Tuesday's top-two primary, which brings its total spending up to $10 million. According to data from the FEC, the only pro-Porter independent expenditures have been for $490,000 in digital ads from a group called OVRSITE PAC in early February.
● PA-Sen: AdImpact reports that WinSenate, an affiliate of the Senate Majority PAC, has booked at least $33.6 million in fall TV time to help Democratic Sen. Bob Casey secure a fourth term.
● TX-Sen: UT Tyler finds Republican Sen. Ted Cruz deadlocked 41-41 in a hypothetical general election against Democratic Rep. Colin Allred even though respondents favor Donald Trump 41-37.
The school also takes a look at Tuesday's primary and shows Allred leading state Sen. Roland Gutierrez 37-22, which is below the majority the congressman needs to avert a May 28 runoff. A mid-February YouGov survey for the University of Texas' flagship campus in Austin showed Allred with a considerably stronger 52-14 advantage.
Governors
● NC-Gov: New fundraising numbers show that Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein outraised Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson $2.2 million to $717,000 during the first seven weeks of the year and finished Feb. 17 with a wide $12.7 million to $4.4 million cash advantage. Every released poll shows Stein and Robinson both on track to easily win their respective primaries on Tuesday.
House
● CA-22: Politico reports that Republican organizations have now spent $1.5 million to help Republican Rep. David Valadao fend off an intra-party challenge from self-funding perennial candidate Chris Mathys, though FEC filings put that figure at just under $900,000 so far.
Democrats, by contrast, fear that both the more pragmatic Valadao and the MAGA-flavored Mathys will advance out of Tuesday's top-two primary and leave them without a nominee in the battle for this competitive Central Valley seat. FEC data shows that House Majority PAC has spent $1.4 million to help 2022 nominee Rudy Salas consolidate the Democratic vote against state Sen. Melissa Hurtado.
● DE-AL: State Treasurer Colleen Davis has dropped out of the Democratic primary for Delaware's open House seat, citing health issues. In a statement, Davis said she had a double mastectomy and had her ovaries removed after learning she carries "a genetic mutation that poses a risk for cancer."
Davis' departure leaves a two-way race for the Democratic nod between state Sen. Sarah McBride and Eugene Young, the director of the state's Housing Authority. McBride outraised Young $455,000 to $104,000 in the fourth quarter of 2023 and finished the year with an $850,000 to $200,000 edge in cash on hand.
● MO-03: Less than two weeks after launching his bid for Missouri's open 3rd Congressional District, former Boone County Clerk Taylor Burks has ended his campaign. In a statement, Burks said that the subsequent entry of "another strong central Missouri candidate" made "the chances of success for either of us nearly impossible while both of us are in the race." While Burks didn't name the candidate in question, that newcomer is former state Sen. Kurt Schaefer, whose old legislative district included all of Boone County.
● NC-10: In a previous Digest, we incorrectly reported that third-party groups had stopped attacking firearms manufacturer Pat Harrigan after he switched races from North Carolina's 14th Congressional District to the 10th. But in fact, negative spending from outside sources has followed Harrigan into the GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Patrick McHenry.
According to data from the FEC, GOPAC has deployed over $1.5 million ahead of Tuesday's primary to attack Harrigan and promote his main rival, state Rep. Grey Mills. The anti-Harrigan messaging, reports WUNC, has portrayed him as weak on border security.
But Harrigan, as we previously wrote, has benefited from $584,000 in support from two other sources: The Koch network's Americans for Prosperity and Elect Principled Veterans Fund, which is affiliated with the super PAC With Honor. Harrigan also has the endorsement of Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who is the party's frontrunner in the GOP primary for governor.
● NC-13: Republican Brad Knott acknowledged to journalist Bryan Anderson this week that he'd spent close to a decade voting from his parents' address even though he owned his own home three miles away, something the former federal prosecutor called "just an innocent paperwork issue." Knott, who is one of 14 candidates competing in Tuesday's primary for an open seat that Republicans recently gerrymandered to be safely red, added, "Anyone who says this is felonious activity does not know what the law is."
WRAL's Paul Specht writes that anyone voting in person, as Knott did five times during this period, must provide their address to a poll worker and sign a form carrying the warning, "Fraudulently or falsely completing this form is a Class I felony under Chapter 163 of the NC General Statutes."
Knott, though, tells Specht he doesn't remember ever being asked for his address. Wake County District Attorney Lorrin Freeman, whose jurisdiction includes both homes in question, also said of such situations, "It generally can be difficult to prove that the individual did not have some basis to believe they could be considered a resident of the address they used to vote."
Anderson previously identified Knott as one of the four major candidates campaigning to replace outgoing Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel; the other three are businessman DeVan Barbour, attorney Kelly Daughtry, and businessman Fred Von Canon. Anderson writes that Daughtry and Von Canon have self-funded at least $2 million and $1.7 million, respectively, compared to $340,000 for Knott.
Knott's family, though, has financed a super PAC called the American Foundations Committee that has spent close to $1.2 million promoting Knott and attacking Daughtry and Von Canon. Daughtry's allies, meanwhile, are funding their own group called the Conservative Voters Alliance that's dropped over $540,000 on messaging praising her and savaging Knott and Von Canon.
No major independent expenditures have been made to either boost or kneecap Barbour or any of the other contenders. Barbour, though, attracted unwanted attention a few weeks ago when a woman accused the married candidate of repeatedly propositioning her for sex in 2021, an allegation he denies.
● NY-04: State Sen. Kevin Thomas announced on Thursday that he was dropping his bid for New York's 4th Congressional District, leaving former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen as the main Democrat looking to unseat first-term Republican Rep. Anthony D'Esposito. Gillen, who lost to D'Esposito 52-48 in 2022, outraised Thomas last year and reported having about $500,000 in her campaign account at the end of 2023. D'Epositio, meanwhile, finished the year with more than $1.2 million banked.
● SC-03: The Post and Courier's Caitlin Byrd reports that nurse practitioner Sheri Biggs is spending $50,000 to air her first ad months ahead of the June GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Jeff Duncan and calls it "part of a substantial six-figure TV plan." The spot touts Biggs' conservative credentials and military background as an officer in the Air National Guard.
Biggs' early spending is our first indication that the first-time contender will have the resources to get her name out in the contest for this dark red seat. Her most notable intra-party foe is state Rep. Stewart Jones, a co-founder of the state-level Freedom Caucus in the South Carolina House.
● TN-07: So much for that: Two weeks after his surprise retirement announcement, Republican Rep. Mark Green declared backsies and said on Thursday that he'd run for a fourth term after all. Green, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, had declared that Congress was "so broken" when he originally announced he would not seek reelection, telling Axios that his experience in office "feels like a lot of something for nothing." It is not clear why those views might have since changed.
Remarkably, Green is now the fourth House Republican to call it quits this cycle only to later reverse course, according to data tracked by Daily Kos Elections. Previously, Texas Rep. Pat Fallon said he'd run for his old Senate seat but changed his mind the next day; Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz told everyone she'd retire in February of last year only to pull an about-face a year later; and Montana Rep. Matt Rosendale, who teased a Senate bid for nine months, yanked the plug on his campaign after just a week and decided to run for the House again.
Each of those returnees has been greeted differently: Fallon's dalliance was too brief for any would-be replacements to even start chatting about possible bids, but several Republicans who launched campaigns during Spartz's long sojourn expressed deep hostility after she sought to bogart her seat. Meanwhile, Rosendale's primary opponents have largely remained mum, but none seem to have bailed just yet.
Only one notable Republican entered the race for Tennessee's conservative 7th District after Green's putative retirement, former state Rep. Brandon Ogles. He, too has yet to say anything, though given how little time he's been on the trail, it wouldn't be surprising if Ogles cleared the way for Green.
Legislatures
● MI Redistricting: Michigan's independent redistricting commission approved a new state House map on Wednesday designed to be used in this year's elections, sending it for review to the panel of federal judges who struck down the state's previous map for relying on race to an unconstitutional degree. The commission's new map redraws 14 districts to remedy the seven that were struck down.
Bridge Michigan reported that the commission's data shows 60 of the 110 districts lean toward Democrats, but it's unclear how the commission reached that conclusion. According to data on Dave's Redistricting App, Donald Trump would have won a 56-54 majority of seats, just as he would have with the 2022 map. However, Joe Biden would have carried six new districts by less than his 51-48 statewide margin, meaning 62 districts would lean to the right of the state overall. Data for other elections shows a similar tilt toward the GOP.
Plaintiffs have until March 8 to file any objections, while a report from a court-appointed expert is due by March 15. The judges are set to rule by March 29. If they reject the commission's map, they could adopt a map of their own.
Campaign Action