• VA-Gov, VA-LG, VA-AG: Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney announced Tuesday that he was ending his campaign for governor of Virginia and would instead seek the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor, a development that has major implications for both contests.
Stoney's move leaves Rep. Abigail Spanberger as the only major Democrat running to succeed Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is prohibited from seeking a second consecutive term. Without mentioning his opponent by name, Stoney acknowledged in a statement that he had only a "narrow path" to victory against the congresswoman.
The mayor had good reason to be pessimistic about his prospects against Spanberger. She ended 2023 with a hefty $3.6 million to $758,000 cash advantage, and even an internal poll for Stoney from Public Policy Polling showed him trailing her 44-11. No other notable names have shown any obvious interest in trying to wrest the nomination from Spanberger, though as Democrats learned seven years ago, there's still time for someone to try to test the frontrunner's strength.
Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam spent years on an apparent glide path through the 2017 primary for governor, but all of that changed that January when former Rep. Tom Perriello shocked the state by entering the race. However, Northam's preparation paid off: He beat Perriello 56-44 before decisively winning the general election.
No major Republicans have announced bids to replace Youngkin, but the Washington Post writes that both Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Attorney General Jason Miyares "are expected" to run. Unlike Youngkin, though, both Republicans could seek reelection if either (or both) decides not to move forward with a bid for the top job.
The Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor, however, was already shaping up to be a competitive and potentially crowded affair even before Stoney made his switch.
Babur Lateef, who is chairman of the Prince William County School Board, was the first to enter the fray when he launched his campaign in March. Lateef retains the support of former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, but McAuliffe's team told the Washington Post he was also backing the mayor. (Stoney is a McAuliffe protege, and McAuliffe's daughter works for the candidate.)
A third Democrat, state Sen. Aaron Rouse, kicked off his own effort just hours after Stoney's announcement on Tuesday. Rouse, who played in the NFL before serving on the Virginia Beach City Council, rose to prominence early last year when he flipped a GOP-held state Senate seat in an expensive special election. (Because the Senate is not up until 2027, Rouse would not have to give up his seat to run.)
The Post also reports that another Democratic state senator, Ghazala Hashmi, has been "prepping" a campaign. Hashmi told the Richmond Times-Dispatch on Tuesday, "We are going to have a big announcement next week."
No notable Republicans have entered the race for Virginia's number-two job, though conservative radio host John Reid said last month he was interested as long as Earle-Sears doesn't seek reelection. However, he's unlikely to be the only Republican interested in this critical office.
The lieutenant governor is charged with breaking ties in the state Senate, where Democrats hold a small 21-19 majority. Given that narrow divide, vacancies and special elections could change the math before the Senate next holds elections three years from now.
The contest for Miyares' job has been the slowest to take shape. Former Del. Jay Jones, who sought the post once before, has gotten the most attention on the Democratic side, and Northam and others have encouraged him to run again.
Jones lost the 2021 primary by a 57-43 margin to incumbent Mark Herring, who was narrowly unseated that fall by Miyares. Jones announced at the end of the year that he'd resign from the legislature even though he'd just won another term (Virginia allows candidates to seek two offices simultaneously), but he left open the possibility that he could wage another bid for attorney general.
The Scope earlier this year identified Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor as another possible Democratic candidate, though we haven't heard anything from her in the ensuing months. Would-be Republican candidates have been quiet about their plans, though that's sure to change if Miyares opts to run for governor.
• AZ-01: The state AFL-CIO has endorsed former TV news anchor Marlene Galán-Woods in the six-way July 30 Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. David Schweikert. The nomination battle for Arizona's 1st District promises to be an expensive one, as the most recent round of campaign finance reports show that five contenders ended March with more than half a million dollars in the bank each.
The two best-financed candidates are investment banker Conor O'Callaghan and businessman Andrei Cherny, who lost the 2012 primary for the old 9th District to none other than Kyrsten Sinema. Each of them finished March with about $1.2 million on hand, with O'Callaghan self-funding much of his effort.
Orthodontist Andrew Horne, who is also financing most of his campaign, had just under $700,000 banked even though he didn't bring in any cash during the first three months of last year. Galán-Woods, for her part, ended last month with around $680,000 available, compared to about $500,000 for former state Rep. Amish Shah. The final candidate, former Arizona regional Red Cross CEO Kurt Kroemer, was well behind with only a little over $100,000 to spend.
Schweikert, who does not have serious intra-party opposition, ended March with $1.2 million on hand to defend this competitive seat. The 1st District, which is based in northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale, favored Joe Biden by a narrow 50-49 spread in 2020, and Schweikert won reelection two years later by a similarly tight 50.4-49.6 margin.
