The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
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Leading Off
● Ballot Measures: While the pivotal 2022 election contests to determine which party controls the Senate, House, and state governments dominate the headlines, voters in many states and communities across the country will also decide on measures affecting critical issues directly on their ballots. Daily Kos Elections has created a guide to 102 noteworthy ballot measures on a variety of topics, including some placed on the ballot directly by voters and others advanced by legislators.
These measures cover matters such as abortion, health care, labor, housing, taxes, criminal justice, civil rights, voting rights, and even the structure of our democracy. Daily Kos Elections' David Nir explains how California, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, and Vermont are all voting on measures related to abortion rights.
Meanwhile, Stephen Wolf details how Arkansas, Maryland, Missouri, North Dakota, and South Dakota are all voting on whether to legalize marijuana; Nebraska, Nevada, and Washington, D.C. could vote to raise the minimum wage; and Arizona and Arkansas are voting on GOP attempts to make future ballot initiatives harder—precisely to prevent these sorts of progressive reforms from passing.
In key part because Republicans in Congress and in many state legislatures have blocked policies benefiting everyday Americans, ballot measures have become a key tool for enacting meaningful change. That's particularly true for initiatives protecting our democracy from GOP efforts to entrench themselves in power through gerrymandering and voting restrictions, which is why Wolf has also devoted a separate piece to cataloging measures specifically related to democracy, such as those expanding early voting, tightening voter ID requirements, and reforming the electoral system itself.
Senate
● Polls:
AZ-Sen: Civiqs (D): Mark Kelly (D-inc): 49, Blake Masters (R): 49
AZ-Sen: Remington Research Group (R): Kelly (D-inc): 48, Masters (R): 47, Victor (L): 2
AZ-Sen: HighGround (R): Kelly (D-inc): 46, Masters (R): 45 (Mid-Oct.: 42-40 Kelly)
FL-Sen: Civiqs (D): Marco Rubio (R-inc): 52, Val Demings (D): 45 (Sept.: 49-47 Rubio)
FL-Sen: Victory Insights (R): Rubio (R-inc): 50, Demings (D): 46
GA-Sen: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Fox News: Raphael Warnock (D): 44, Herschel Walker (R): 43 (Sept.: 46-41 Warnock)
GA-Sen: Echelon Insights (R): Walker (R): 49, Warnock (D-inc): 45, Oliver (L): 3 (Sept.: 50-40 Warnock)
GA-Sen: Remington Research Group (R): Walker (R): 49, Warnock (D-inc): 45, Oliver (L): 2
GA-Sen: SurveyUSA for WXIA: Warnock (D-inc): 49, Walker (R): 43, Oliver (L): 3 (Early Oct.: 50-38 Warnock)
MO-Sen: SurveyUSA for local media: Eric Schmitt (R): 50, Trudy Busch Valentine (D): 41 (Sept.: 47-36 Schmitt)
NC-Sen: Civiqs (D): Cheri Beasley (D): 49, Ted Budd (R): 49 (Sept.: 49-48 Beasley)
NC-Sen: Remington Research Group (R): Budd (R): 50, Beasley (D): 43
NH-Sen: YouGov for UMass Lowell: Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 51, Don Bolduc (R): 41, Jeremy Kauffman (L): 3
OH-Sen: Remington Research Group (R): J.D. Vance (R): 48, Tim Ryan (D): 43
PA-Sen: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Fox News: John Fetterman (D): 45, Mehmet Oz (R): 42, Everett Stern (I): 4 (Sept.: 45-41 Fetterman)
PA-Sen: Remington Research Group (R): Oz (R): 47, Fetterman (D): 44, Gerhardt (L): 2, Weiss (G): 1
WI-Sen: Siena College for Spectrum News: Ron Johnson (R-inc): 47, Mandela Barnes (D): 45 (Sept.: 48-47 Barnes)
Governors
● Polls:
AZ-Gov: Civiqs (D): Kari Lake (R): 50, Katie Hobbs (D): 48
AZ-Gov: Remington Research Group (R): Lake (R): 49, Hobbs (D): 46
AZ-Gov: HighGround (R): Lake (R): 47, Hobbs (D): 45 (Mid-Oct.: 46-45 Hobbs)
FL-Gov: Civiqs (D): Ron DeSantis (R-inc): 54, Charlie Crist (D): 45 (Sept.: 52-45 DeSantis)
FL-Gov: Victory Insights (R): DeSantis (R-inc): 54, Crist (D): 41
GA-Gov: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Fox News: Brian Kemp (R-inc): 49, Stacey Abrams (D): 43 (Sept.: 50-43 Kemp)
GA-Gov: Echelon Insights (R): Kemp (R-inc): 50, Abrams (D): 43, Hazel (L): 3 (Sept.: 48-47 Abrams)
GA-Gov: Remington Research Group (R): Kemp (R-inc): 55, Abrams (D): 41
GA-Gov: SurveyUSA for WXIA: Kemp (R-inc): 52, Abrams (D): 45 (Early Oct.: 47-45 Kemp)
MA-Gov: YouGov for UMass Lowell: Maura Healey (D): 59, Geoff Diehl (R): 32 (Late Oct.: 61-33 Healey)
MI-Gov: Cygnal (R): Gretchen Whitmer (D-inc): 50, Tudor Dixon (R): 46 (Late Oct.: 51-44 Whitmer)
NY-Gov: Data for Progress (D): Kathy Hochul (D-inc): 54, Lee Zeldin (R): 42 (Sept.: 52-39 Hochul)
OK-Gov: Amber Integrated (R) for KOCO: Kevin Stitt (R-inc): 45, Joy Hofmeister (D): 44, Ervin Yen (I): 4, Natalie Bruno (L): 2 (Mid-Oct.: 46-45 Hofmeister)
OK-Gov: WPA Intelligence (R) for Kevin Stitt: Stitt (R-inc): 52, Hofmeister (D): 39
OR-Gov: Nelson Research: Christine Drazan (R): 44, Tina Kotek (D): 41, Betsy Johnson (I): 5 (Sept.: 33-32 Drazen)
PA-Gov: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Fox News: Josh Shapiro (D): 53, Doug Mastriano (R): 37 (Sept.: 51-40 Shapiro)
PA-Gov: Remington Research Group (R): Shapiro (D): 52, Mastriano (R): 40
WI-Gov: Siena College for Spectrum News: Tony Evers (D-inc): 47, Tim Michels (R): 45 (Sept.: 49-44 Evers)
House
● NH-02: Data analyst Rob Pyers relays that House Majority PAC has spent $1.1 million on a last-minute effort to defend Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster, which is a considerably larger amount than the initial $275,000 that Politico reported HMP was spending here just days earlier.
Attorneys General and Secretaries of State
● Polls:
GA-AG: SurveyUSA for WXIA: Chris Carr (R-inc): 42, Jen Jordan (D): 38, Martin Cowen (L): 3 (Early Oct.: 40-36 Carr)
GA-SoS: SurveyUSA for WXIA: Brad Raffensperger (R-inc): 42, Bee Nguyen (D): 39, Ted Metz (L): 4 (Early Oct.: 39-36 Raffensperger)
MI-AG: Cygnal (R): Dana Nessel (D-inc): 47, Matthew DePerno (R): 43 (Late Oct.: 46-42 Nessel)
MI-SoS: Cygnal (R): Jocelyn Benson (D-inc): 49, Kristina Karamo (R): 42 (Late Oct.: 49-41 Benson)
Ballot Measures
● MI Ballot: Republican firm Cygnal's latest poll shows Proposal 3 passing 52-43, which would enshrine the right to reproductive freedom including abortion into the state constitution. Although all recent polls have found voters poised to approve Proposal 3, several taken last month have disagreed over just how big of a lead the "yes" side has: a recent SSRS poll for CNN placed it ahead by a similar 54-45, a media-sponsored poll from EPIC-MRA found "yes" leading by a huge 60-33, while GOP firm Mitchell Research & Communications for MIRS News had "yes" winning just 50-47.
Other Races
● Los Angeles County, CA Sheriff: UC Berkeley's late-October poll for the Los Angeles Times finds retired Long Beach Police Chief Robert Luna, who has the backing of progressives, beating conservative incumbent Alex Villanueva 40-32, which is little different from Luna's 36-26 lead in late September. Although both candidates are registered Democrats, the poll shows Villanueva drawing his support overwhelmingly from Republicans while Democrats and independents favor Luna.