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Mon Oct 08, 2012 at 07:29 AM PDT

Intrading the Senate, Week 8

by Buckland

Week 8 of the intrading the Senate.

The goal of this is to follow the changes in the Intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign.

Methodology:  I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.

Ratings changes this week:  Hienrich (D) in New Mexico has maintained at least 80% support for 2 weeks and is now off the board. This is a very thinly traded race, and never was probably never really that big. Nelson(D) of Florida has risen above the 80% mark and will be removed from the board if Mack doesn't gain next week.

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Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 06:05 AM PDT

Intrading the Senate, Week 7

by Buckland

Week 7 of the intrading the Senate.

The goal of this is to follow the changes in the intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign.

Methodology:  I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.

Ratings changes this week:  As expected, Hienrich (D) in New Mexico has moved back over the 80% mark to move this race off the board. Mack(R) of Florida has risen above the 20% mark, removing the threat of falling off the board. In Pennsylvania Tom Smith (R) has gained enough support to break the 20% barrier, inaugurating coverage of that race.

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Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 09:20 AM PDT

Intrading the Senate, Week 6

by Buckland

Week 6 of the intrading the Senate.

The goal of this is to follow the changes in the intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign.

Methodology:  I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.

Ratings changes this week:  And what a week it was for ratings changes. All of the changes have moved towards the Democrats this week except New Mexico, and I'm not sure it's real. Going alphabetically:  Bill Nelson (D) has taken an 83.3-16.7 lead over Connie Mack IV in Florida, moving over the 80% threshold to be removed form the board. Last week my Intrading the Senate post was only up an hour when commenters pointed out that the Massachusetts race had changed, with Warren pulling ahead. Michigan is now off the board as Stabenow has been over the 80% level for 2 weeks. New Mexico is the exception to the moves, as Heinrich (D) no longer holds an 80% probability. And last but DEFINITELY not least, Baldwin has taken a lead over Thompson in Wisconsin.

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Mon Sep 17, 2012 at 05:45 AM PDT

Intrading the Senate, Week 5

by Buckland

Week 5 of the intrading the Senate.

The goal of this is to follow the changes in the intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign

Methodology:  I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.

Ratings changes this week:  The only ratings change was Michigan. This one has crossed the 80% barrier -- Intrade sees a greater than 80% chance that Stabenow(D) will defeat Hoekstra (R). If this remains above 80% for next week it will be removed from the board.

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Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 06:56 AM PDT

Intrading the Senate, Week 4

by Buckland

Week 4 of the intrading the Senate.

The goal of this is to follow the changes in the intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign

Methodology:  I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.

Ratings changes this week:  The only ratings change was Virginia, moving from a Republican pickup to a Democratic Hold. Kaine has made up ground slowly but surely and now has gone ahead of Allen.

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Tue Sep 04, 2012 at 07:55 AM PDT

Intrading the Senate

by Buckland

Week 3 of the intrading the Senate.

The goal of this is to follow the changes in the intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign

Methodology:  I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.

Ratings changes this week:  The only ratings change was to move Nebraska off the board. Fischer (R) has crossed the 80% probability line for 2 consecutive weeks. It will only come back if Kerrey does.

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Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 03:45 PM PDT

Intrading the Senate

by Buckland

Week 2 of the intrading the Senate.

The goal of this is to follow the changes in the intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign

Methodology:  I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.

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Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 08:06 AM PDT

Intrading the Senate

by Buckland

I've been following the Intrade Senate Odds. It's interesting to watch the changes as new information comes available.

I'm going to try to write a series of these as we head to November to catch the changes in investor sentiment between now and November.

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OK, at least read before you start throwing spitballs.

The Terri Schiavo case has been decided right along the guidelines set out in the Nancy Cruzan case of 1990. Nancy Cruzan was severely injured in an auto accident and had no hope of regaining consciousness. Her family wished to remove feeding tubes keeping her alive. The hospital refused and the case when to the US Supreme Court.

http://www.tourolaw.edu/patch/Cruzan/

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In an earlier diary entry I told the story of a contested State Sentate Race in Kentucky that looks like it will be taken from the Democrats, no matter what the law says.

Here are the highlights, then I'll get to the specifics:

Prior to election day, the Democrat in the race, Virginia Woodward, filed suit in state court contending that Dana Seum (rhymes with Slime) Stephenson was in eligible because she didn't meet the state's 6 year residency requirement before running for the state senate.  

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Democrat Virginia Woodward is very near to having her state senate seat taken in backroom dealings in Frankfort.  Here's the story:

Dana Seum (rhymes with Slime) Stephenson was the Republican on the ballot on November 2.  However before the election a circuit court judge ruled her ineligible to take office.  The Kentucky State Constitution requires a state senator to have been a resident of the state for 6 years prior to taking office.  Stephenson had moved back to Kentucky and immediately filed for the election, making her ineligible to hold office.  "Black Letter Law" as lawyers sometimes say.  Open and shut.  Three months is not the same as 6 years.

Courier Journal Article

The decision that she was ineligible came too late to have the ballots reprinted and also too late for the Republicans to field another candidate.  However Stephenson, despite being ineligible to serve, still got about 1,000 more votes than Woodward.  Stephenson didn't even appeal the court decision proclaiming her ineligible.

More after the jump...

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