[Updated] Why Obama won the debate: Because he kept agreeing with McCain

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Friday September 26, 2008 · 8:23 PM PDT

2008/09/26 · 20:23

Pundits and bloggers are criticizing Obama for openly agreeing with McCain during the debate. He wasn't "tough" enough, he was playing too nice. Moreover, pundits think McCain may have scored points by repeatedly belittling Obama for not understanding the issues or being too naive.

I disagree. This is another instance of Obama knowing what McCain was going to do and he set him up brilliantly. Obama clearly made a strategic choice to openly agree with McCain on many occasions knowing McCain would be nasty and contemptuous. Why? Fairly simple

After tonight, who came across as a president who would be truly bipartisan? The candidate who was respectful to the other, or the candidate who was dismissive? More below.

ROh70

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Wednesday September 03, 2008 · 4:54 AM PDT

2008/09/03 · 04:54

Game over. McCain is going to lose. So say the most reliable predictors of presidential elections - gamblers, or "punters," in British lingo. According to this Bloomberg article, London and Dublin bookmakers report a dramatic shift in betting patterns after news came out regarding the Palin choice as Republican vice presidential candidate. Here's the money quote:

``Ever since he appointed her, people have stopped betting on McCain,'' said David Williams of Ladbrokes in London. ``He went down like a sack of potatoes as far as the punters are concerned.''

Why is this big news? Answer below the fold.

ROh70

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Tuesday June 17, 2008 · 1:45 AM PDT

2008/06/17 · 01:45

The racist-sexist smear campaign against Michelle Obama has begun. Last week, Fox News smeared Michelle Obama as Barack's "baby mama."

This week, Fox News gave us a preview of the racist-sexist smear that the repubs are planning for Michelle - painting her as just another one of those "angry black women." You know, one of those scary and dangerous "angry black women." The angry black woman who, along with her husband and their scary black liberationist preacher, wants revenge on "whitey." It's about fear and fear-mongering, pure and simple. And it must stop.

The smear occurred on Fox News Watch on Saturday, June 14. The topic of the panel discussion was "Is Michelle Obama the Next Media Target?" Conservative pundit Cal Thomas answered this question with a resounding and disturbing yes.

ROh70

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Tuesday June 03, 2008 · 10:13 PM PDT

2008/06/03 · 22:13

Howard Fineman was on MSNBC with Keith Olbermann, and he repeated that, based on his reliable sources, Hillary Clinton really does not want to be Obama's vice president, despite what you are hearing from Clinton surrogates, including Lanny Davis and Diane Feinstein. Fineman then gave his explanation for why he thinks Hillary doesn't want it.

Before I heard Fineman's explanation, I was a bit incredulous, because it seemed to me that Hillary's speech tonight was a signal that her campaign for vice president was beginning. But, after hearing Fineman's reasoning, I'm starting to think he may be right.

More below the fold.

ROh70

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Monday June 02, 2008 · 12:51 PM PDT

2008/06/02 · 12:51

As we begin the hard process of unifying the party after a bruising primary, we know that the task will be difficult because of the anger and resentment felt by many of Hillary Clinton's most ardent supporters. I keep reading Clinton supporters write and say that they will never vote for Obama, and will either vote for McCain, write-in Hillary, or stay at home. I also read about how they say they won't be threatened into voting for McCain because of trumped up fears that a McCain presidency will mean the end of Roe v. Wade.

I'm writing this diary because there is an important fact that all democrats and pro-choice voters must know about, a fact that should help them realize that the threat to Roe v. Wade is real. The fact that must be stated over and over again is that the average age of the 5 justices on the Court who support Roe v. Wade is seventy-four. And we thought John McCain has an age issue.

More below the fold.

ROh70

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Wednesday May 28, 2008 · 9:41 PM PDT

2008/05/28 · 21:41

Lately, caucuses have been getting a really bad rap. Clinton and Clinton supporters disparate caucuses as illegitimate, un-democratic systems for choosing the democratic presidential nominee.

Now, we all know that this sudden movement against caucuses has risen only because Clinton lost ALL the caucus state elections (I consider Nevada an Obama victory).

In this diary, I want to offer a defense of caucuses, and argue that the democratic presidential primary process should continue to include a mix of caucuses, open-primaries, and closed-primaries. Caucuses are an important part of the process. They are legitimate, I argue, because not only are they democratic in nature, they also provide an invaluable measure of electability factors, factors that primaries are not able to effectively measure. Moreover, contrary to what Clintonites argue, Obama's overwhelming victories in caucus states provide a strong basis for arguing that Obama is more electable than Clinton. Analysis after the fold.

ROh70

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Wednesday May 28, 2008 · 1:45 AM PDT

2008/05/28 · 01:45

No, this diary is not about the phenomenon of white voters who say they'll vote for a black person then end up not voting for him/her. That's the Tom Bradley Effect.

What I want to talk about is something interesting Chuck Todd mentioned today on some MSNBC show. It's a rebuttal to Bill Clinton's contention that Hillary is "winning the general election" based on current general election polling against McCain. The nationwide and state specific general election polls are key to Hillary's argument that she's more electable than Obama. If you go over to MyDD, their electoral map based on the most recent state polls shows Clinton with a whopping 300+ electoral votes to McCain's 200. Obama, on the other hand, is about even with McCain.

According to Todd, Bill and Hill's argument is wrong. The fact that Hillary is doing well in general election match-ups proves only that she has, in effect, lost the nomination. For an explanation of what Bill Bradley has to do with any of this, see below the fold.

ROh70

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Saturday May 24, 2008 · 6:54 PM PDT

2008/05/24 · 18:54

There is a recommended diary arguing that Clinton's RFK statement is her "Dean Scream" moment and signals the demise of her campaign. I agree. However, I still see people writing posts talking as if Clinton will just shake off this latest glitch and continue her scorched earth campaign all the way to the convention. That will not happen, however, and the RFK statement is the final nail in Hillary's desperation campaign for many different reasons.

In this diary, I will attempt to show why and how the RFK gaffe spells the end of Clinton's desperation campaign. No, she will not concede or suspend her campaign right away. She will continue on to the last primaries. But, with each passing day, it will become clearer and clearer that her campaign has been noticeably hurt by the RFK statement. The campaign is on its last legs, and its final collapse will occur slowly but methodically over the coming several weeks. My prediction - Clinton will suspend her campaign on June 3rd, the night of the last primaries, or on June 4th. The campaign will not go beyond June 5th. Reasons below the fold.

ROh70

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Thursday May 22, 2008 · 10:41 PM PDT

2008/05/22 · 22:41

I read another diary which referred me to a recent national general election poll conducted by Investor Business Daily. It was quite a find, because the poll is the first one I've seen that has polled Obama against McCain with Clinton as Obama's VP.

In the IBD poll, the Obama v. McCain match-up without vps has Obama beating McCain by 11 points, 48-37, with 15 percent undecided. The pollster then matched up an Obama/Clinton ticket against McCain with 3 different VP candidates: Condi Rice, Mitt Romney, and Pawlenty.

Hillary Clinton has been arguing that she is the best qualified vice president because she would be the best person to unify the democratic party and to draw white working class voters. If so, you'd expect that the addition of Clinton alongside Obama would boost his numbers against McCain. The results of the polling, however, doesn't seem to suggest adding Clinton to the ticket would have any dramatic effect in boosting Obama's candidacy against McCain. Results after the fold.

Poll - McCain/VP v. Obama/Clinton To find the IBD poll, you have to scroll about half way down the screen.

ROh70

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Thursday May 22, 2008 · 7:44 AM PDT

2008/05/22 · 07:44

She's back.

The exchange between Bush, McCain, and Obama seemed to signal the start of the general election. And Obama's speech in Iowa was supposed to put an exclamation mark on his historic and triumphant presidential candidacy.

But, the day after his Iowa speech, what were the media talking about? Hillary Clinton. Just as Obama stole the media narrative from HRC's West Virginia win with the Edwards endorsement, HRC has "hil-jacked" the media narrative from Obama, at least momentarily.

Everything she's doing and saying now is a not-so-subtle attempt to de-legitimize Obama's candidacy in order to get herself on the ticket. What she is doing is perfectly rational if you see her goal as doing everything she can to make it extremely difficult for Obama not to offer her the VP slot. More below the fold.

ROh70

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Sunday May 18, 2008 · 1:04 PM PDT

2008/05/18 · 13:04

In arguing that popular vote should be the metric used to determine the democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton and her supporters point to the illegitimate and un-democratic nature of caucuses as one reason why. As we all know, Obama has destroyed Clinton in caucus states, racking up huge margins of victory in the process. Yet, for Clinton, Obama's strength caucus states actually proves her argument that Obama is un-electable, contending that Obama is winning the pledged delegate count primarily because of his wins in "illegitimate" caucus states, states which are predominantly red-states anyway.

To test Clinton's theory, I want to examine 2 questions: (1) are caucus states mostly red-states, as Clinton supports argue? (2) in recent polling, how is Obama faring against McCain in general election match-ups in caucus states? And how is he doing compared to Clinton?

The answers to the two questions, I'd argue, completely undermine Clinton's critique of caucus states and her contention that Obama is un-electable. In fact, Obama's strength in caucus states actually may show that he is more electable than Hillary Clinton. Analysis after the fold.

ROh70

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Tuesday May 06, 2008 · 7:34 PM PDT

2008/05/06 · 19:34

Last week, HRC called North Carolina a gamechanger, saying that NC would be sending a strong message to the nation about who the democrats want as their next president. When I heard it, I was immediately and deeply puzzled. Why would she say something like that when she knows that she has little chance of winning the state? She didn't even mention Indiana, suggesting that NC would change the game regardless of what happened in Indiana.

I thought about it for a bit, and then I came to a possible explanation. By calling NC a gamechanger, knowing the steep odds of winning, HRC was providing herself with an exit strategy for bowing out of the race on her own terms.

More below.

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[Updated] Why Obama won the debate: Because he kept agreeing with McCain

Oddsmaker: McCain going "down like a sack of potatoes" since Palin pick

Fox News Smears Michelle Obama as "The Angry Black Woman"

Fineman: Hillary doesn't want to be Vice President

Why a McCain presidency will end Roe v. Wade: Avg. age of liberal Justices - Seventy-four

A Defense of Caucuses: Why Obama's caucus wins show that he is more electable than Clinton

The Bill Bradley Effect: Why Hillary's general election polling strength proves that she's failed

[Updated2x]Why the RFK gaffe will end Hillary Clinton's Campaign by June 4th

New Poll: Obama-Clinton ticket does not help Obama against McCain (Investor Business Daily Poll)

Hil-jacked: How and why Hillary has hijacked the media narrative

The Legitimacy of Obama's Caucus Wins: Caucuses and the Case for Obama's Electability

North Carolina is a Gamechanger: Hillary's Exit Strategy and Why it Might Finally Be Over