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In this diary I will explain how I see the political situation and what would be for me the path for a Democratic victory in the Presidential election of 2016. The diary will include also some note that can help in my opinión for an overall success of the American left in the cycle.

While I'm clearly to the left of most of the voters and the leaders of the Democratic Party, I think the global situation, internal and external, can not afford a Republican president in the United States after 2016.

Poll

Who would be the most interesting candidate for Vice President in the blue ticket for 2016?

1%2 votes
0%1 votes
0%0 votes
9%15 votes
0%0 votes
6%10 votes
7%12 votes
3%6 votes
5%9 votes
16%26 votes
4%7 votes
1%2 votes
3%5 votes
34%55 votes
5%9 votes

| 160 votes | Vote | Results

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Sun Jan 18, 2015 at 06:00 AM PST

CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus Final Vote

by abgin

Today is the big day, the day of the final vote in the Daily Kos Caucus for CA-Sen 2016.

In the previous diaries, the readers have done the selection of the politicians that will be here today. The people voted 15 politicians clearly from a big list of 91 prominent politicians in the following steps, necessary taking into account the formats of Daily Kos diaries.

Here you can see the links to the previous diaries of this little series:

CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus I
CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus II
CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus III
CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus IV
CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus V
CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus VI

Every vote has been counted until the moment of the publication of this diary. Just in this moment the polls get closed in order qualify for the Final Vote.

PROVISIONAL RESULTS

The people finally qualified for the Final vote is:

1 Kamala Harris
2 Hilda Solis
3 Xavier Becerra
4 John Chiang
5 Jackie Speier
6 Judy Chu
7 Raul Ruiz
8 Gavin Newsom
9 Antonio Villaraigosa
10 Betty Yee
11 Mark Takano
12 Adam Schiff
13 John Garamendi
14 Mike Honda
15 Eric Garcetti

I think the readers selected a strong group of potential candidates, with all the strongest people in.

The bench selected for today's final vote is very interesting. As example the geographical distribution is very interesting. There are 6 politicians from North California, 5 from the San Francisco area (Harris, Speier, Newsom, Yee and Honda), and Garamendi from the Sacramento area, while there are 9 from the South California, all around the Los Angeles area (Solis, Becerra, Chiang, Ruiz, Chu, Villaraigosa, Takano, Schiff and Garcetti).

It is time to see who can emerge with stronger popular support here in Daily Kos. Only if many people vote this will be a good Daily Kos Caucus for CA-Sen 2016.

Thank you so much to all who liked and supported this work, these days.

Poll

Select your favourite for CA-Sen 2016

8%9 votes
2%3 votes
1%2 votes
0%0 votes
1%2 votes
1%2 votes
4%5 votes
2%3 votes
0%0 votes
1%2 votes
63%65 votes
1%2 votes
0%0 votes
6%7 votes
0%1 votes

| 103 votes | Vote | Results

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Sat Jan 17, 2015 at 01:39 AM PST

CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus VI

by abgin

And here is the 6th step in this little series. The Daily Kos Caucus for CA-Sen 2016. The following diary, tomorrow morning will be the Final Vote with all the politicians who qualified these days.

These are the provisional results from the previous four editions.  

CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus I
CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus II
CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus III
CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus IV
CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus V

Every poll of the series is open until the diary of the Final Edition be published.

PROVISIONAL RESULTS

The people provisionally qualified for the Final vote is:

1 Kamala Harris
2 Hilda Solis
3 Xavier Becerra
4 John Chiang
5 Jackie Speier
6
7 Raul Ruiz
8 Gavin Newsom
9 Betty Yee
10 Mark Takano
11 Adam Schiff
12 John Garamendi
13 Mike Honda
14 Eric Garcetti
15

From today's diary we will have at least other two, and maybe more, if more people have enough votes.

I missed the data that Robert Reich, was living now also in California, and it makes he should be in this series. Since it was not more places in the polls of the previous diaries, I will write a comment in this diary with his political way, like in the rest of the cases. If you recommend this comment, it will count like a vote for him in order to qualify for the final vote in this series.

If you visited not the first edition of the diary, let me to quote the entire explanation.

Poll

Select your favourite for CA-Sen 2016 (Group 1)

9%2 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
42%9 votes
4%1 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
4%1 votes
0%0 votes
33%7 votes
4%1 votes
0%0 votes

| 21 votes | Vote | Results

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Thu Jan 15, 2015 at 09:06 PM PST

CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus V

by abgin

Today there is the 5th step in this little series. The Daily Kos Caucus for CA-Sen 2016.

These are the provisional results from the previous four editions.  

CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus I
CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus II
CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus III
CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus IV

Every poll of the series is open until the diary of the Final Edition be published.

PROVISIONAL RESULTS

The people provisionally qualified for the Final vote is:

1
2
3 Kamala Harris
4 Hilda Solis
5
6 John Chiang
7 Xavier Becerra
8
9 Raul Ruiz
10 Betty Yee
11 Mark Takano
12 John Garamendi
13 Mike Honda
14
15

From today's diary we will have at least other two, and maybe more, if more people have enough votes.

But If you visited not the first edition of the diary, let me to quote the entire explanation.

Poll

Select your favourite for CA-Sen 2016 (Group 6)

3%1 votes
3%1 votes
13%4 votes
6%2 votes
3%1 votes
31%9 votes
20%6 votes
0%0 votes
3%1 votes
3%1 votes
0%0 votes
3%1 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
3%1 votes

| 29 votes | Vote | Results

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Wed Jan 14, 2015 at 06:07 PM PST

CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus IV

by abgin

Today we have the 4th step in this little series. The Daily Kos Caucus for CA-Sen 2016.

These are the provisional results from the previous three editions.  

CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus I
CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus II
CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus III

PROVISIONAL RESULTS

The people provisionally qualified for the Final vote is:

1
2
3 Kamala Harris
4 Hilda Solis
5
6 John Chiang
7 Xavier Becerra
8
9
10 Raul Ruiz
11
12 Mark Takano
13 Betty Yee
14
15

From today's diary we will have at least other two, and maybe more, if more people have enough votes.

Every poll of the series is open until the diary of the Final Edition be published.

But If you visited not the first edition of the diary, let me to quote the entire explanation.

Poll

Select your favourite for CA-Sen 2016 (Group 3)

7%2 votes
7%2 votes
3%1 votes
0%0 votes
3%1 votes
18%5 votes
14%4 votes
7%2 votes
7%2 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
7%2 votes
14%4 votes
0%0 votes
7%2 votes

| 27 votes | Vote | Results

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Tue Jan 13, 2015 at 05:20 PM PST

CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus III

by abgin

Today we have the third step in this little series. The Daily Kos Caucus for CA-Sen 2016.

These are the provisional results from the previous two editions.  

CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus I
CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus II

PROVISIONAL RESULTS

The people provisionally qualified for the Final vote is:

1
2
3 Kamala Harris
4
5
6 John Chiang
7
8
9
10 Raul Ruiz
11 Xavier Becerra
12
13 Mark Takano
14
15

From today's diary we will have at least other two, and maybe more, if more people have enough votes.

Every poll of the series is open until the diary of the Final Edition be published.

But If you visited not the first edition of the diary, let me to quote the entire explanation.

Poll

Select your favourite for CA-Sen 2016 (Group 2)

55%16 votes
6%2 votes
0%0 votes
10%3 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
20%6 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
6%2 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes

| 29 votes | Vote | Results

Continue Reading

Mon Jan 12, 2015 at 06:31 AM PST

CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus II

by abgin

The second step in the Daily Kos Caucus for CA-Sen 2016 begins.

First we can see the provisional results from the first edition.  

CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus I

PROVISIONAL RESULTS

The people provisionally qualified for the Final vote is:

1
2
3
4
5
6 Kamala Harris
7
8
9
10
11
12 Mark Takano
13
14
15

From today's diary we will have at least other two, and maybe more, if more people have enough votes.

Every poll of the series is open until the diary of the Final Edition be published.

But If you visited not the first edition of the diary, let me to quote the entire explanation.

Poll

Select your favourite for CA-Sen 2016 (Group 4)

3%1 votes
19%6 votes
0%0 votes
32%10 votes
3%1 votes
3%1 votes
0%0 votes
29%9 votes
3%1 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
6%2 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes

| 31 votes | Vote | Results

Continue Reading

Sun Jan 11, 2015 at 03:25 AM PST

CA-Sen 2016: Daily Kos Caucus I

by abgin

The race for the replacement of long term veteran senator B Boxer begins after the announcement of her retirement. It is time of looking forward, and this is what this little series of diaries want to do.

Yes, this will be a little series of diaries. It will have the purpose to find the most popular potential candidate for CA-Sen 2016 here in Daily Kos. We read hundreds of opinions about many people, but we know not really who would be our favourite. If you like to take part this can become something like the Daily Kos Caucus for the race.

To do it we need to take into account some limitations of the formats to vote in the diaries for Daily Kos. As example, we can not have all the list of potential candidates in at the same time in a single diary. There are 15 options to vote in the polls of our diaries, then we will need to have the proces in some steps, in some differente diaries.

To be in this caucus, there is not need to apply. There is not need to express interest in a bid or something like this. Everyone of the highest level politicians of the state will be in the caucus except:

- It will not be the potential candidates of the same age of B Boxer or older.
- It will not be former officers affected by proved serious scandals.
- It will not be the politicians that moved later to other states.

Also it will be included some not elected people but sounds for the race, and are included in the lists of potential candidates here in Daily Kos Elections or in the wikipedia article about the race.

Then we will have a list with all the people that can have higher political profile (active or retired) and with also the people that sounds (even if declined), and we will distribute them as randomly as possible in some diaries for the people can vote. From every diary, we will select the Top-2, the 2 people with more votes in every poll, and between the rest the three people with more votes, to advance to a final diary with all the most loved potential candidates.

If you get interested, keep one eye in this series in the following days. My intention is to publish a diary every day, in the following week.

Obviously not all the people voting here will be from California, I hope you feel not bad because of it. There is nothing bad about to see what the people think here in Daily Kos about this race. And I have not a way to limit it to the people from California.

Poll

Select your favourite for CA-Sen 2016 (Group 5)

1%1 votes
0%0 votes
7%4 votes
3%2 votes
0%0 votes
3%2 votes
0%0 votes
79%43 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
1%1 votes
1%1 votes
0%0 votes

| 54 votes | Vote | Results

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It is not easy to do a strong recruitment for the seats in Republican hands. These seats are the seats where the Democratic party failed until now, but the Democratic party need to try.

The last cycles are not being succesful for the Democratic party in terms of recruitment. Only a few of the selected candidates become successful and win, and even in the bluest seats an effort must be done to give them the necessary strength to survive. The Democratic party needs something else for 2016.

A good recruitment just means to have the best people running for the offices where there is some chance for a victory.

Talking about recruitment, there is only one person, the best person, for a succesful recruitment. The second can be a good alternative, a good replacement, but can not be considered a success. The best is the best and something else is not a successful recruitment.

In order to have a good recruitment, the first step is to find the available people in every case with proved talent winning at least some time something important. And this is what this diary want to do. This people maybe not the best (or yes), but they fix a minimum level for the recruitment of the Democratic party in every district. Who finally becomes the best option must prove (in a primary) to be over them.

Before to begin, it is not easy to know which will be strongest combinations, it is not easy to see where the combination of a winnable constituency plus a good recruitment option for the Democratic party can become stronger and put the Republican incumbents in higher troubles. Also we know not where can be competitive open seats, then, it is necessary to begin doing a complete overview of the seats that can become competitive.

For me there are two groups of seats potentially competitive for 2016:

- The Republicans will have since January 9 D+ seats. These are the seats with a blue leaning where the Democratic party is favored by the lean of the voters.

- The Republicans will have since January 57 EVEN to R+5 seats. These are the seats with a little to moderate red leaning, where the Democratic party can become competitive with a strong candidate. And also these are the seats where the Democratic party can have a options for a defense in a red wave year.

For me R+6 or worse seats (all them worse than MN-07 and FL-02) are too difficult and too undefensible in red wave years, taking into account that seats like WV-02, UT-04 or AR-02 were open in 2014. They will have Republican incumbent in the following cycles.

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Yes a President of Catalonia has been killed by Spain. No it is not Artur Mas, it is not today. But there is a day where Spain killed the President of Catalonia.

This day was October 15, 1940. The president killed was Lluis Companys. He was tortured and executed like a criminal for defending Catalonia from the Spanish fascism.

There you can see another profile of the executed President of Catalonia.

Spain has a history of high profile violence against Catalonia. It is not the first time that this people is fighting for the independence with high human costs for them.

Poll

Would you accept the independence of Catalonia if the people of Catalonia want it in an official referendum?

70%35 votes
24%12 votes
6%3 votes

| 50 votes | Vote | Results

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The analysis of the results can lead to call 2014 a Republican wave year, but looking at them carefully, this is not the impression that I have.

There is not doubt that 2014 has been a year with a moderate Republican lean, but I would not call it a wave year. I have not the impression that the entire political map moved homogeneously this cycle, like in a true wave.

I think the movements have been stronger in some areas. There are areas with a deficient Democratic campaign. My conclussion is that the Democratic Party has been victim of the own failures, that in some cases affected strongly to local results with unexpected loses. But the entire map moved not as hard.

Go with the analysis of my own prediction and numbers to see why this is my conclusion.

First the data of my prediction and the final result. Still we have some races uncalled but as it can take so long, I will try to preview the winner for every race.

Continue Reading

Tue Nov 04, 2014 at 05:58 PM PST

Prediction of the results 2014

by abgin

This is my prediction for this night. Having little time, I will explain more the diary, but the prediction is in.

These are the offices that the Democratic party can win this cycle (incluiding the races of 2013) for a total balance of the cycle.

 photo PredictingD_zps8e331e5b.jpg

These are the offices and state chambers that the Republicans can win.

 photo PredictingR_zps32d7fe57.jpg

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