In 2004, I became involved in financing Democratic Senate candidates...five of them (four lost). The next cycle was 12 (plus House candidates). The next was…..
Today I give a lot of money to candidates for the House, Senate, State officials, Party Committees, etc. and as a result I get endless requests for support. I’ve met with or talked personally to 11 Senate candidates as well as DSCC Chair Cortez-Masto, and probably 50 House candidates and incumbents. To manage all these requests, I’ve built a model over the years that crunches a ranch of data elements to provide guidance on which race make sense to support...and which don’t.
Given the expansive battlefield we need to fight on (winning the Presidency, holding the House, picking up the Senate AND not forgetting about Statehouse and State Legislative contests, it’s critical to make informed decisions about where to put money (if you want to VOLUNTEER for any Democrat, be my guest). Here’s my current recommendation of what you should and should not do in the Senate.
Don’t Give Money to:
Amy McGrath (vs. Mitch McConnell)
Let’s be honest: you hate Mitch McConnell. You want to get rid of Mitch McConnell. Amy McGrath iss an appealing combat veteran running against Mitch McConnell. Why not support her?
Because, so far she has raised $47.2 M. More than McConnell. More, in fact than any other Senate candidate. She currently has $16.2 M on hand. She doesn’t need more money; she needs an electorate that’s willing to take their displeasure with McConnell and vote against him. And to be blunt, they show no sign of doing so. He was first elected 36 years ago. He has political clout, the ability to bring home goodies for his State and a substantial war chest of his own. The way you’ll get rid of him is not defeating him at the ballot box, its by taking away his Senate majority. And there are Senate candidates with much more achievable opportunities to win.
Mark Kelly (vs. Martha McSally)
(note: I know Mark; I met him from when I ended up at the private swearing in ceremony for Gabby Giffords. It’s a long story...)
In some ways, this is the reverse situation to Amy McGrath. Mark will be a great Senator and we’d love to get rid of McSally, who’s already lost a Senate race (to Kyrsten Sinema). The reason not to give to Kelly at this point is, quite honestly, that he doesn’t need the help. As of June 30, he had $23 M in the bank, and (with one outlier) has led in every poll this year. Cook, Sabato and Gonzales have all rated this as LEAN D and most analysts are already assuming this race can be banked in favor of the Democrats.
Joe Kennedy (vs. Ed Markey)
Look, I know that incumbents shouldn’t automatically expect to be nominated and and everyone has a right to run for office and all that. But so far, Kennedy and Markey have raised $17 M, enough to fully fund 2-3 competitive House races for the privilege of retaining a Democratic Senate seat in an absolutely safe Blue State. You could light the money you planned to give on fire and have just as much effect on our political future.
DO Give Money to:
Cal Cunningham (vs. Thom Tillis)
One of the things my model values is synergy: supporting a candidate who’s voters will also turn out for someone up- or down-ticket. With the continued blueing of North Carolina, it’s in reach for Joe Biden (the latest RCP average gives him a +3 average). Turning out votes for Cunningham will help both Biden and Governor Roy Cooper, as well as pick up the five seats needed to control the State Assembly.
Jon Ossoff (vs. David Perdue)
Georgia is also becoming a more competitive location for Democrats (see Stacy Abrams) and polling says this is is currently neck and neck between Trump and Biden. Jon Ossoff is currently ahead by a whisker for the Senate seat, but had to burn cash for his Primary and needs to replenish to maintain his competitiveness.
Al Gross (vs. Dan Sullivan)
Okay, this is a bit of an irrational outlier. But two recent polls show the Senate race relatively close, as well as the House At Large race between Alyse Galvin and Don Young. And the advantage of Alaska is...it’s cheap. Only one media market and campaign costs are far lower than in other States, so your dollars go further. This one’s worth something of a longshot bet.
So, spend wisely. I’ll be back next week with some House recommendations.
