MA-Sen 2014: Is Markey vulnerable?

progressive85

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday July 25, 2013 · 3:58 AM PDT

2013/07/25 · 03:58

There's not much conversation about this seat.

Who is expected to run on the Republican side and is Ed Markey vulnerable? Or is this seat completely safe?

Minnesota Map

progressive85

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday August 27, 2011 · 9:06 AM PDT

2011/08/27 · 09:06

Statewide: http://www.flickr.com/...

Minneapolis area close-up: http://www.flickr.com/...

MN 1: 51.5 Obama
Dark Blue
Willmar, Alexandria, Fergus Falls, Detroit Lakes, Moorhead City, Bemidji
Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes)
One of the least progressive Democrats - Collin's in a swing district. This district becomes a smidgen less Republican.

MN 2: 49.2 Obama
Dodger Blue (Light Blue)
Hibbing, Duluth, Brainerd, Little Falls, St. Cloud, Cambridge
Chip Cravaack (R-Lindstrom)
District does not change much- Chip's still in a swing district. It's a little less Democratic.

MN 3: 51.2 McCain
Dark Magenta (Purple)
Mankato, Fairmont, Albert Lea, Worthington, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, Glencoe, Waconia, Faribault, Marshall
Tim Walz (D-Mankato)
- I'd love to put him in a better district but Tim's from Mankato and the area around it is just so swingy. He's in a 51 Obama district now. So maybe I'd change this district a little but it's going to be a marginal seat either way.

MN 4: 52.0 Obama
Green
Inver Grove Heights, Eagan, Cottage Grove, Hastings, Red Wing, Northfield, Rochester, Winona, Owatonna, Austin

New district- no incumbent from either party, so it's going to be a Swing seat.

MN 5: 58.5 Obama
Orange
St. Paul, Bloomington, Eagan, Savage, Shakopee, Eden Prairie, Apple Valley, Lakeville

Three incumbents live here: Betty McCollum (D-St. Paul), Erik Paulsen (R-Eden Prairie), John Kline (R-Lakeville). The two Republicans would battle it out in the primary, but Betty would be favored to win.

MN 6: 57.1 Obama
Teal

Minneapolis, Falcon Heights, Roseville, Shoreview, White Bear Lake, Little Canada, Maplewood, Oakdale, Woodbury, Stillwater, Blaine

The Incumbent is Michele Bachmann (R-Stillwater) but her old district was 53-45 McCain. This one is Democratic. She stands a good chance of being ousted from the House in this bluer MN 6.

MN 7: 57.6 Obama
Gray
Maple Grove, Minnetonka, Chahassen, St. Louis Park, Richfield, Edina, Orono, Elk River, Big Lake
No incumbent. A new freshman Democrat would likely win this seat.

MN 8: 59.6 Obama
Lavender (Slate Blue)
Minneapolis, Fridley, Golden Valley, New Hope, Brooklyn Center, Brooklyn Park, Coon Rapids, Champlin, Anoka, Andover
Keith Ellison (D-Minneapolis). This is the most similar to Keith's old district, so I think he'll be here. His old district was 74-24. Obviously all the Minneapolis seats have been made much less Democratic but with a 60% Obama district, I don't think he needs to worry.

In a good Democratic year, Democrats could sweep all 8 districts. President Obama won 5 of the 8 districts under the current map. With this map, he would win 7 of the 8.

In a bad year for Democrats, the first four would be the most vulnerable.

The best part about this map is that it gets rid of Michele Bachmann, who even if she ran would likely lose to her Democratic challenger. The worst part is that Betty McCollum and Keith Ellison's districts are more of a bluish purple now and not deep blue like they were.

If Roe vs. Wade is overturned... then what?

progressive85

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday July 16, 2011 · 7:08 PM PDT

2011/07/16 · 19:08

I think that there's a chance that the Supreme Court will overturn Roe vs. Wade. I think the only person on that court that is keeping that decision alive is Kennedy, the swing justice. When he decides to retire, whoever becomes the next justice may have to decide on the fate of Roe.

Even so, what we have today is getting closer to what we had before the decision. Some states that have laws on the books that allow women to have abortions, and many states (probably at least 35 of the 50 states) have made it nearly impossible to have an abortion.

We've seen a rise in laws being passed that oppose Roe vs. Wade, and since the Republicans won in 2010, we've seen even more.

I have only one experience with abortion - and it was through a friend in college who had slept with an ex-boyfriend and became pregnant. She was engaged to another man and wanted to get married and have a family with him. She was raised Catholic and struggled with her choice. We went to a pharmacy and we walked down the baby aisle and I could feel her pain. She wanted to have a baby but one that was planned. She was a lovely girl and so I don't believe at all she is a "baby killer".

She couldn't have an abortion in our state because the laws here basically make it illegal completely, and so she had to go to a neighboring state where the laws are pro-choice. She actually had to cross state lines.

Now I don't agree 100% with all of the pro-choice beliefs - I believe that once there is a heartbeat than that's it - its a human being and it has rights - but this particular friend had her abortion at the very beginning before it had developed into anything, and so I believed she had to do it.

If she didn't do it then, then she would have had to have the baby and she very likely would have given it up for adoption.

There's a lot of women at colleges that have casual sex or one night stands and then they find themselves in a family way and they don't know what to do. To me it's not really fair because that man can go around sleeping with all these women and he never gets pregnant.

I can't stand men that speak out about abortion when they'll never have to be in the shoes of a young unexpecting mother who is terrified because now she is pregnant.

Poll

71 votes Show Results

If Roe is overturned, what should we do?

71 votes Vote Now!

If Roe is overturned, what should we do?

Let the states ban it and forget about the issue.

12 votes

Focus on passing a congressional law to provide for exceptions.

6 votes

Focus on appointing new Supreme Court justices.

21 votes

Put pro-choice referendums on state ballots.

32 votes

Young Voters (18-24) in 2010

progressive85

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday July 14, 2011 · 5:49 PM PDT

2011/07/14 · 17:49

I was curious to see how 18-29 year olds voted in 2010. Did they vote Republican or did they continue their trend of voting Democratic?

For example, if you were in college in 2004, you were more likely to have voted for John Kerry. In 2006, we see that younger voters helped elect Democrats (in many cases, these Democrats would have not won without 18-29 year olds). In 2008, Barack Obama owed several state victories to young turnout. By 2010, those college students from 2004-2010 would have left college and entered their mid 20s. Even in this very Republican year, these voters remained solidly Democratic.

Had these been the only votes that counted, 2010 would have been considered a midterm triumph for Obama and the Democrats, a vote of confidence in the President.

Governors races

Illinois
All ages: 47-46 Quinn (D)
18-29: 55-33 Quinn (D)
Difference: +8 D

Ohio
All ages: 49-47 Kasich (R)
18-29: 53-43 Strickland (D)
Difference: +6 D

Pennsylvania
All ages: 54-46 Corbett (R)
18-29: 55-45 Onorato (D)
Difference: +11 D

Wisconsin
All ages: 52-47 Walker (R)
18-29: 55-45 Barrett (D)
Difference: +8 D

Texas
All ages: 55-42 Perry (R)
18-29: 51-46 White (D)
Difference: +9 D

Florida
All ages: 49-48 Scott (R)
18-29: 59-39 Sink (D)
Difference: +11 D

South Carolina
All ages: 51-47 Haley (R)
18-29: 58-40 Shaheen (D)
Difference: +11 D

New Hampshire
All ages: 53-45 Lynch (D)
18-29: 62-34 Lynch (D)
Difference: +9 D

Iowa
All ages: 53-43 Branstad (R)
18-29: 50-46 Branstad (R)
Difference: +3 D

Connecticut
All ages: 49-49 Malloy (D)
18-29: 65-34 Malloy (D)
Difference: +16 D

California
All ages: 54-41 Brown (D)
18-29: 60-33 Brown (D)
Difference: +6 D

Arizona
All ages: 54-43 Brewer (R)
18-29: 48-46 Brewer (R)
Difference: +3 D

So younger voters came out to vote for Democratic Governors, even in very red states in a very red year.

We see the biggest differences based on age group in Pennsylvania, Florida, South Carolina, and Connecticut, where young voters favored the Democratic candidate by a margin of over 10 points higher than all ages did.

Senate races

Pennsylvania
All ages: 51-49 Toomey (R)
18-29: 61-39 Sestak (D)
Difference: +12 D

Ohio
All ages: 57-39 Portman (R)
18-29: 49-45 Fisher (D)
Difference: +10 D

Missouri
All ages: 54-41 Blunt (R)
18-29: 51-44 Carnahan (D)
Difference: +10 D
[Interesting to note that the very youngest voters supported Blunt, while 25-29 year olds voted 57-39 for Carnahan, the only group to do so.]

Wisconsin
All ages: 52-47 Johnson (R)
18-29: 53-46 Feingold (D)
Difference: +6 D
[Here we see again, 18-24 barely voting for Feingold while he wins 25-29 by a much larger 12 points.)

Florida
All ages: 49 Rubio (R) - 30 Crist (I) - 20 Meek (D)
18-29: 36 Rubio (R) - 33 Crist (I) - 31 Meek (D)
Difference: +11 D
[18-24 group went for the Republican by 1 point, while 25-29 went to the Democrat by 1 point.]

Illinois
All ages: 48-47 Kirk (R)
18-29: 59-33 Giannoulias (D)
Difference: +12 D
[18-24 was 56-36 Giannoulias, while 25-29 was 62-30 Giannoulias.]

Indiana
All ages: 55-40 Coats (R)
18-29: 55-42 Coats (R)
Difference: +2 D

Kentucky
All ages: 56-44 Paul (R)
18-29: 51-48 Conway (D)
Difference: +7 D
[18-24 voted for Paul, 52-47. 25-29 voted for Conway, 56-42, and they were the only age group in Kentucky to favor the Democrat.]

New Hampshire
All ages: 60-37 Ayotte (R)
18-29: 51-46 Hodes (D)
Difference: +14 D

House races

The national exit poll for the House shows that 18-29 year olds supported Democrats 55-42. The other age groups supported Republicans. The elderly supported Republicans 59-38.

My findings are that younger voters have consistently now, since 2004, voted for the Democrats.

You do see in CNN's exit poll that 18-24 year olds are not as Democratic as 25-29.

If you were 18 in 2010, you were 8 in 2000, when George Bush was first elected President and you were 12 in 2004.

If you were 25 in 2010, you were 15 in 2000 and you voted in 2004 (these youngest voters would have elected John Kerry). You were likely in your early 20s during the worst of the Bush years. This is the time when usually political beliefs begin to be formed. This mini-generation (25-29) seems to view Democrats much more favorably than Republicans and its probably because they associate Republican policies with George W. Bush's administration.

In the early 80s, younger voters became Republicans and we that today that same age group does support Republicans.

Do you think it's likely that the younger voters remain Democratic?

Poll

40 votes Show Results

Who was elected President the very first time you voted in a presidential election?

40 votes Vote Now!

Who was elected President the very first time you voted in a presidential election?

Truman

0 votes

Eisenhower

0 votes

Kennedy

1 vote

Johnson

1 vote

Nixon

3 votes

Carter

4 votes

Reagan

5 votes

Bush I

6 votes

Clinton

5 votes

Bush II

8 votes

Obama

7 votes

We need to recruit more young Democrats!

progressive85

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday June 24, 2011 · 2:17 PM PDT

2011/06/24 · 14:17

I don't know if I'm the only one that's noticed this or feels this way but the Republicans seem to have more younger candidates and elected officials than we do.

In the US House, of the 10 youngest Representatives, 9 (90%) are Republican, and all of them are conservatives. The youngest? Aaron Schock, who is more known for showing his abs on the cover of Mens Health, than anything else. There are only two representatives born in the 80s and they are Republican.

The three youngest Senators are conservative Republicans.

There are not a lot of young progressives running and there needs to be, first because young voters are important to the Democratic Party and gave the President the votes he needed to win key states, and second, because its symbolic for the party to have a younger group of Democrats.

In Canada, where you can be a teenager in college and get elected to Parliament, the NDP (which is the progressive party) won a lot of seats and with college students.

I think it would be very wise for the DNCC to recruit a group of young leaders to run.

The youngest member of the House should be someone that reflects the majority of their generation - socially progressive, open-minded, and Democratic.

Democratic candidates from 2010 that didn't do that bad

progressive85

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday June 23, 2011 · 2:51 PM PDT

2011/06/23 · 14:51

Arizona 3- Jon Hulburd
Arkansas 1- Chad Causey
California 3- Ami Bera
California 44- Bill Hedrick
California 45- Steve Pougnet
Florida 12- Lori Edwards
Illinois 10- Daniel Seals
NH 2- Ann McLane Kuster
Washington 8- Suzan DelBene
WV 1- Mike Oliverio

Are any of these running again in 2012, in what will hopefully be a better climate for Democrats nationally? I think that Mike Oliverio, for example, could run a successful offensive campaign against the Republican, David McKinley. He lost by less than 1%. If Democrats are to take control of the House in 2012, this would be a bellwether race.

Poll

39 votes Show Results

What is your prediction of the number of seats Democrats will gain or lose in 2012?

39 votes Vote Now!

What is your prediction of the number of seats Democrats will gain or lose in 2012?

Gain of 25+ and House Takeover

21 votes

Gain of 15-25, small Republican majority

6 votes

Gain of 5-15

4 votes

Gain of 0-5

0 votes

No net gain for either party

2 votes

Loss of 0-5 seats

2 votes

Loss of 5-10 seats

0 votes

Loss of 10 seats or more

4 votes

If Barack Obama Had Been a Republican

progressive85

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday June 17, 2011 · 9:39 AM PDT

2011/06/17 · 09:39

I've always wondered about what would happen if there was a black Republican presidential nominee. I actually thought the first black President would be a Republican, probably because of all the talk about Colin Powell running in the 90s. I wonder if black voters, who vote overwhelming Democratic, would jump into the arms of a black Republican presidential candidate. I'm not talking Herman Cain, who I don't even think would win the black vote if he was nominated, but someone like our own Barack Obama - eloquent, good-natured, bright, likeable, and not-partisan (at least not in rhetoric).

Let's pretend that Barack Obama as we know him never came to be and instead in the 1980s, Barack Obama was inspired by Ronald Reagan. Instead of becoming a Democrat, let's say he became a Republican, in the mold of Colin Powell, but perhaps not as moderate on social issues. The Republicans would groom Barack Obama, like they did with Condi Rice, as a future Republican leader, someone who could win over black voters permanently, thereby making it impossible for the Democrats to ever win another election. With rhetoric designed to appeal to African-Americans - strong faith in God, family values, much in the way black pastors talk.

On economic issues, this Barack Obama would talk about bread and butter issues as if he understood what people were going through, but then he'd demand tax cuts for the wealthy and scalebacks in social spending. With careful strategy, he would carve out for himself a moderate image as a reformer in Washington.

Let's say that this Barack Obama is then elected Governor of Virginia, a key state, and during his time as Governor, he becomes overwhelmingly popular among both whites and blacks. He could then point to this success and persuade the Republican establishment to back him. He then wins the nomination against a lackluster group of ultraconservative white Governors and Senators.

In a general election, how would this Barack Obama, Republican Governor of Virginia, do? What would we see happen among African-American voters?

I think the South, already being so Republican, would become very Republican. He would win Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia in landslides. I also think he would do really well in states like Missouri, Iowa, and Indiana.

The Rust Belt would be a possible opening for the Democrat, whoever that was. If it was a Hillary Clinton, I'd say the Democrat would win Appalachia.

New England, with the exception of New Hampshire, which would go Republican, would remain Democratic.

Battleground states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan would go to the Republicans.

This pretty much would be enough to win the electoral college.

The West I think would be a tossup.

Those are my thoughts. What are yours? Do you think the Republicans could nominate a Barack Obama-style politician in the near future, or do you think they'll go after Latinos and nominate a Marco Rubio or a Susana Martinez. Or, could they choose a minority that's not talked about as much - an Indian-American - like Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley. I think it's interesting that there are two prominent Indian-American Republicans when Indian-Americans as a group have really not been represented on the national stage at all (in fact, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall there ever even being an Indian-American Democratic congressperson).

So go ahead, post your thoughts!

Poll

34 votes Show Results

Who will the Republicans nominate first?

34 votes Vote Now!

Who will the Republicans nominate first?

An African-American

7 votes

A Latino

15 votes

An Indian-American

1 vote

An Asian

2 votes

A Native American

0 votes

Other

9 votes

If Puerto Rico Was a State

progressive85

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday June 14, 2011 · 7:10 AM PDT

2011/06/14 · 07:10

PR's population is approx. 3,725,000. If it was a state it would have 7 electoral votes. Population-wise it would be the 29th most populous state (out of 51- DC would still be just a district). This would put it smack in-between Oklahoma and Connecticut (both of which have 7 electoral votes).

PR would receive 2 Senators. One would probably be elected earlier and the other a little bit later so they could run in classes, or elected at the same time and one would have a shorter term.

They would receive 5 House seats. They already have 1 delegate who represents the entire island (Pedro Pierlusi, a Democrat). Pierluisi would probably run in 1 one of the 5 new districts created.

This would expand the number of House seats from 435 to 440.

The Governor of Puerto Rico is a Republican and they sent a Democrat to the House. Polls show that the Governor is unpopular and trailing the Democratic candidate.

I think that Puerto Rico would become a swing state.

Does anyone else know anything more about PR? What would the House districts look like? Do you think PR would wind up leaning Democratic or Republican in presidential elections? What is your overall view of PR becoming a state?

Poll

96 votes Show Results

Should Puerto Rico become the 51st state?

96 votes Vote Now!

Should Puerto Rico become the 51st state?

Yes

73 votes

19 votes

Unsure

4 votes

Newer
Older

RSS