GOTV Food Bomb for KY

svotaw1992

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Tuesday May 20, 2008 · 9:50 AM PDT

2008/05/20 · 09:50

A great opportunity for Kossacks to help with Obama's GOTV today went off the Recent Diary list, so I'll see if I can send a little more love their way.

BlueMama put up a great diary for helping send food to all those dedicated workers still trying to get out the vote in Kentucky. Please give it a look and contribute if you can. I'm tapped out, but I can try and send a few more people their way with my diary allocation for the day.

For all you Kossacks just getting up and having latte's on the west coast... here's your chance to generate a second wave of nourishment to those dedicated workers. They need dinner now that lunch is almost over.

DON'T Rec this diary, but please go and rec BlueMama's.

Idaho joins Nebraska and Am.Samoa as done. 51 to go.

svotaw1992

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Monday May 12, 2008 · 11:25 AM PDT

2008/05/12 · 11:25

Despite there being a little under 250 superdelegates left to declare support (and under 200 if you don't count add-ons), almost all states/territories still have undeclared superdelegates. The undeclared supers are oddly spread out over all contests. As of 11:00 AM Pacific time today (per DemConWatch), there were 10 states with 1 super left, 43 with more than 1 super, and 2 with no supers (Nebraska and American Samoa).

With the endorsement of the last Idaho superdelegate today, Idaho joins Nebraska and American Samoa as the only states/territories with no undeclared supers.

svotaw1992

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Friday May 09, 2008 · 4:25 PM PDT

2008/05/09 · 16:25

I didn't see this posted anywhere, but Ohio has official results up for the primary. The numbers have changed significantly.

svotaw1992

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Monday April 28, 2008 · 2:39 PM PDT

2008/04/28 · 14:39

If you are looking for some good news to cheer you up, Obama is quietly winning his add-on superdelegates while Clinton is not. The superdelegates are obviously still greatly aware of who the nominee will be.

svotaw1992

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Thursday April 17, 2008 · 11:58 AM PDT

2008/04/17 · 11:58

Without a primary or caucus to tally, there's been fewer updates of the state of the race by the numbers. Here's a few highlights of where the numbers stand now. It might help erase the bad taste from last night's debacle by ABC.

svotaw1992

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Thursday March 20, 2008 · 3:10 PM PDT

2008/03/20 · 15:10

Here's a little fact to celebrate Obama's speech and the fading of the Wright affair (at least in terms of non-stop coverage).

Obama has been ahead for a while in most any measure you can use... pledged delegate count, pledged delegate count including MI&FL, popular vote, state wins, primary wins, caucus wins, etc. One lead that she hadn't lost yet has been the total delegate count including supers as well as MI&FL in full (the count with Obama gaining essentially zero delegates in MI).

That lead is finally gone.

svotaw1992

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Monday March 17, 2008 · 4:03 PM PDT

2008/03/17 · 16:03

I have great respect for kos. He's a hero to me. However, I'm not a "cult" member of his. He's not perfect. Back before the Michigan primary, kos was vocal in promoting Michigan Democrats to vote for Romney just to stir things up. It sounded unseemly and Republican-like to me, and I didn't really see it ultimately gaining anything. To me, it was a case where the means were definitely not worth the end. Tricks like that should be reserved for much more dire circumstances.

Now... it looks like Michigan might get a revote. I think that's ultimately a good thing for Obama, probably even a great thing. However, a sticking point in approving the Michigan revote will be whether or not people who voted in the Republican primary will be allowed to vote in the redo.

svotaw1992

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Thursday March 13, 2008 · 6:45 PM PDT

2008/03/13 · 18:45

Didn't see a diary on this, but apparently after a recount on the south side of Chicago Clinton lost 2 delegates because she didn't meet the 15% criterion. See web story here. This is from Chicago Public Radio.

I'm guessing that this means there will be a net 4 delegate gain in the differential between Clinton and Obama. Right now he stands at 1411 to 1250, for a net of 161 difference. That would swing to 1413 to 1248 for a net 165 difference.

Sorry for the short diary, but I didn't see it posted.

UPDATED
Looks like kos was on the ball and front-paged it along with news about a net 4 delegate loss from updating of Colorado results. New York also changed, although as kos points out Obama's numbers were already accurate.

So in the end the numbers don't change. Obama 1411 to 1250, for a net of 161.

DemConWatch doesn't have any update of 3 supers going to Clinton, so we'll see what that's all about.

Obama's magic number to win the nomination in NC

svotaw1992

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Tuesday March 11, 2008 · 11:17 AM PDT

2008/03/11 · 11:17

The Democratic nomination will be settled when:

Clinton or Obama withdraws.

Clinton or Obama gains enough delegates to claim victory.

The first is not likely to happen before the second. When can one of them claim victory? It's likely Obama will win the pledged delegate count in the end (see here), but what about the possibility of reaching 2025 before that? (or possibly 2208) When would it be mathematically possible for one of them to claim victory? After PA? After NC? Not until after Montana? It's important to know since the contest is getting bitter and nobody really wants it to go to the convention.

In summary, the first point at which either one could even officially claim the needed number of delegates is Obama in NC. I frame my analysis as "Magic Numbers", which basically means the number of superdelegates needed to win outright. Supers will definitely decide this thing at this point. Here's the numbers...

svotaw1992

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Monday March 10, 2008 · 11:48 AM PDT

2008/03/10 · 11:48

It's hard to get perspective sometimes on the differences between Clinton and Obama in the delegate counts. For me at least, numbers and text just don't do it. I'm more of a visual person. Here are some graphs visualizing the delegate lead Obama has. I made some similar graphs last night, but got suggestions on how to improve them. Thanks to all who gave input.

svotaw1992

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Sunday March 09, 2008 · 2:35 PM PDT

2008/03/09 · 14:35

It's hard to get perspective sometimes on the differences between Clinton and Obama in the delegate counts. For me at least, numbers and text just don't do it. I'm more of a visual person. Here is a graph showing the pledged delegate lead from day 1. Each point represents a different day where an election has been held. It helps me to see the history of the lead as well as the projected future.

svotaw1992

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday March 06, 2008 · 3:02 PM PST

2008/03/06 · 15:02

I haven't seen a diary on this, so... I just read a great post on TPM from FlyOnTheWall. Apparently 73 of the remaining superdelegates are actually not people who can choose their own candidate. These so called Unpledged Add-On Delegates are essentially chosen at the state conventions by the winners of the state. Obama already selected 2 of his from Alabama. There are 73 to go. (see the link for more details)

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GOTV Food Bomb for KY

Idaho joins Nebraska and Am.Samoa as done. 51 to go.

Goodbye to Clinton's double digit Ohio win

Good news: Obama winning add-on superdelegate fight

The slow drip of the numbers... Some quick updates.

Clinton's lead finally gone in last delegate measure

A beef with kos: the Michigan revote

Obama gains 2 delegates in Illinois? (Updated)

Obama's magic number to win the nomination in NC

The delegate race visualized

Don't like words? Don't like math? How 'bout pictures?

More math problems for Clinton: UADs