"And I…I loved the bird", from breakup song to anti-fascist anthem.

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Sunday June 17, 2018 · 5:23 AM PDT

2018/06/17 · 05:23

European robin eating from someone's hand

I just stumbled across the song Txoria txori (“The Bird’s a Bird”) two days ago. It’s a classic, originally recorded in 1974 by the Basque folksinger Mikel Laboa, and there have been a gazillion covers of it since. (The American singer Joan Baez recorded one in 1998.) Despite that, it was totally new to me. I think it has to be one of the best ‘my baby left me’ songs ever. I thought I’d share.

YouTube Video

Txoria txori, covered by John Kelly & Maite Itoiz, text and images by Markella Siaka

vinkelhake

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Wednesday March 09, 2016 · 7:52 AM PST

2016/03/09 · 07:52

Here’s a comparison of state Democratic primary polls by Public Policy Polling with the actual primary or caucus results so far. All polls were conducted within a few weeks of the state’s primary.

State	ppp poll	Actual results	Difference
Alabama	59% Clinton 31% Sanders	78% Clinton 19% Sanders	+ 19% Clinton
Arkansas	57% Clinton 32% Sanders	66% Clinton 30% Sanders	+ 9% Clinton
Georgia	60% Clinton 26% Sanders	71% Clinton 28% Sanders	+ 11% Clinton
Louisiana	60% Clinton 29% Sanders	71% Clinton 23% Sanders	+ 11 Clinton
Mississippi	60% Clinton 26% Sanders	83% Clinton 17% Sanders	+ 23% Clinton
South Carolina	55% Clinton 34% Sanders	74% Clinton 26% Sanders	+ 19 Clinton
Tennessee	58% Clinton 32% Sanders	66% Clinton 32% Sanders	+ 8% Clinton
Texas	57% Clinton 34% Sanders	65% Clinton 33% Sanders	+ 8% Clinton
Virginia	56% Clinton 34% Sanders	64% Clinton 35% Sanders	+ 8% Clinton
Vermont	10% Clinton 86% Sanders	14% Clinton 86% Sanders	+ 4% Clinton
Massachusetts	49% Clinton 46% Sanders	50% Clinton 49% Sanders	close!
Iowa	48% Clinton 40% Sanders	50% Clinton 50% Sanders	+ 10% Sanders
Michigan	50% Clinton 40% Sanders	48% Clinton 50% Sanders	+ 10% Sanders
Minnesota	50% Clinton 32% Sanders	38% Clinton 61% Sanders	+ 29% Sanders
Oklahoma	46% Clinton 44% Sanders	42% Clinton 52% Sanders	+ 8% Sanders

Conclusion: Why does anybody care what PPP says?

I’m only picking on PPP because they’ve done a lot of state primary polls, and they’re a fairly well regarded pollster (with a B+ rating from 538). Other pollsters have also been wildly wrong.

It seems like there is very little overlap between people included in PPP’s polling samples and people who actually vote in the primaries. The primary voters they haven’t counted haven’t consistently voted one way or another. It just means their polls have little predictive value. Other pollsters are having the same problem.

New Sanders Ad: Tenemos Familias – We Have Families

vinkelhake

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Saturday March 05, 2016 · 11:42 AM PST

2016/03/05 · 11:42

YouTube Video

This is the YouTube version of the ad. The TV version is exactly five minutes long (instead of 5:21 minutes) and slated to run on TV stations in Florida and the Spanish-language cable channel Univision.

New Selzer Poll in Iowa

vinkelhake

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Monday December 14, 2015 · 5:46 AM PST

2015/12/14 · 05:46

The poll was conducted Dec. 7–10. The poll sampled registered Iowa voters who said they would definitely or probably attend the 2016 caucuses. Selzer has an A+ rating from 538.

Summary in Bloomberg Politics

Detailed results

Democratic race
Clinton	48%
Sanders	39%
O’Malley	4%

Sample: 404 likely Democratic caucus participants

Margin of error: +/- 4.9

In Selzer’s previous Iowa poll conducted in October, Clinton lead Sanders 42% to 37%. The October poll included Biden.

vinkelhake

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Tuesday December 08, 2015 · 10:36 AM PST

2015/12/08 · 10:36

The poll was conducted Dec. 3–6. Monmouth gets an A- rating from 538. The sampling methodology for this poll was not the same as Monmouth University’s previous Iowa poll conducted in late October. More details about this below.

Summary and details from Monmouth University

Clinton	55%
Sanders	33%
O’Malley	6%

Sample: 405 likely Iowa Democratic caucus goers

Margin of error: +/- 4.9%

In the current poll, just over half of the respondents were previous caucus participants. The remainder were registered voters (including registered voters and independents) who said they planned to participate in the Democratic caucuses. 38% of respondents were contacted by cellphone.

Sanders leads 48% to 38% among voters under 50 (32% of the sample). Clinton leads 63% to 26% with voters 50 and older. Clinton and Sanders were tied among independents who planned to participate in the Democratic caucus (14% of the sample).

“Undecided” was not provided as an option, but respondents were also asked about their strength of support. 10% said they were undecided, and 11% said they had only a “slight preference” for the candidate they selected.

Among previous Democratic caucus attendees only, comparable to the group sampled for Monmouth’s October Iowa poll, Clinton received 57% support, Sanders 30%. In October, their results were Clinton 65% Sanders 24%.

New CBS Battleground Polls: IA, NH SC

vinkelhake

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Monday November 23, 2015 · 10:05 AM PST

2015/11/23 · 10:05

These were internet panel polls conducted by YouGov Nov. 15–19. YouGov gets a C+ rating from 538. All participants were registered voters who had previously voted in the Democratic Party’s primaries or caucuses. The majority were participants in CBS/YouGov’s October polls who were recontacted to participate in this month’s polls.

Summary by YouGov

Shorter summary by CBS News

CBS/YouGov “Battleground” Poll results
	IA	NH	SC
Clinton	50%	45%	72%
Sanders	44%	52%	25%
O’Malley	5%	3%	2%

Sample size	602	561	420
Margin of error	+/- 7.6	+/- 6.9	+/- 8.7

Detailed results for each state: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina

According to YouGov, Sanders has picked up increased support from African-American South Carolinians, while Clinton has increased her support from white voters in the same state, with a net gain for Clinton. There is little change in the results from the other states.

vinkelhake

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Sunday November 22, 2015 · 6:17 AM PST

2015/11/22 · 06:17

Summary on ABC

Details

Notes on methodology

The poll was conducted Nov. 16–19. Results from two earlier polls are included for comparison. ABC/WaPo gets an A- rating from 538. Respondents were asked which candidate they were leaning to, which means the levels of support indicated are softer than polls which ask only which candidate respondents would vote for.

Democratic primary
	Nov.	Oct.	Sept.
Clinton	60%	64%	56%
Sanders	34%	25%	28%
O’Malley	3%	2%	3%

Sample: 352 registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents

Margin of error: +/- 6%

Results for Oct. & Sept. are without Biden.

September results with Biden included were: Clinton 42% Sanders 24%

vinkelhake

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Friday November 20, 2015 · 6:26 AM PST

2015/11/20 · 06:26

Summary in Bloomberg Politics

Details and methodology

Democratic Primary
Clinton	55%
Sanders	33%
O’Malley	6%

Sample: 385 registered Democrats & Democratic leaners

Margin of error: +/-5.0

Previous poll, Sept. 15
Clinton	33%
Sanders	24%
O’Malley	1%

The September poll included Biden, Webb and Chafee.

Republican Primary (top four)
Trump	24%
Carson	20%
Rubio	12%
Cruz	9%

Sample: 379 registered Republicans and leaners

Margin of error: +/-5.0%

The new poll was conducted Nov. 15 through17.

Short quote from Anne Selzer: “[Clinton] has a solid majority saying, ‘She’s my choice.' She wasn’t close to that before,”

Bernie Sanders is officially on the ballot in NH

vinkelhake

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Thursday November 05, 2015 · 4:31 PM PST

2015/11/05 · 16:31

Bernie Sanders filed his paperwork today to get on the primary ballot in New Hampshire. It was accepted.

William Gardner, the New Hampshire Secretary of State, is on Bernie's right. Bernie held a rally with supporters afterwards to celebrate.

Relevant tweets:

NH Democratic Party ‏@NHDems
.@BernieSanders files with the Secretary of State and becomes our second candidate for #fitn primary! #nhpolitics

Bernie Sanders ‏@BernieSanders
My friends, a political revolution is coming to New Hampshire and it’s coming to America. #fitn

MaryAlice Parks ‏@maryaliceparks
.@BernieSanders will walk out of NH statehouse in Concord momentarily to this sight...
(pic of rally)

Brad Mielke ‏@TheBradMielke
If only Bernie Sanders could pick a scenic spot for a rally.
(pic of rally)

"We'll see what he gives me" was a perfectly reasonable response from Gardner if asked if Sanders would be on the primary ballot, since he hadn't filed his paperwork yet. He did, and there don't seem to have been any problems. Another bogus news story turns out to be bogus.

That's all.

Reuters' 5-day rolling poll & Hillary's firewall

vinkelhake

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Thursday September 24, 2015 · 6:15 AM PDT

2015/09/24 · 06:15

Southern states have been described as Hillary Clinton's firewall because of Bernie Sanders' relatively poor performance with minority voters.

The online interactive tool for Reuters' 5-day rolling poll allows you to filter results according to demographic data provided by participants in the poll, essentially creating your own custom crosstabs. Let's take a look under the squiggle.

vinkelhake

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Wednesday September 23, 2015 · 7:53 AM PDT

2015/09/23 · 07:53

Jim, the Liberty University alumnus who's short sermon/talk "The Biblical Argument for Bernie Sanders" attracted a lot of attention here, on reddit and among Evangelicals, has posted a second in his series of "Sanders Sermons", this one on military and foreign policy: The Sanders Sermons: War

The site has a complete transcript and a link to the audio, as well as a transcript of his previous sermon on immigration that VL Baker diaried earlier. Upcoming sermons in the series will get posted to the same tumblr.

An Evangelical responds to Sanders' speech at Liberty U

vinkelhake

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Wednesday September 16, 2015 · 4:03 AM PDT

2015/09/16 · 04:03

An Evangelical pastoral counselor and Liberty University graduate posted a short sermon about Bernie Sanders' speech at Liberty University to reddit yesterday:

Bernie is the voice of Justice crying out in the desert. Evangelicals like me are convicted by his message. (audio, a little under 17 minutes)

reddit thread

Partial transcript below the squiggle.

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"And I…I loved the bird", from breakup song to anti-fascist anthem.

A look at primary polling

New Sanders Ad: Tenemos Familias – We Have Families

New Selzer Poll in Iowa

New Monmouth poll of the Iowa Democratic race

New CBS Battleground Polls: IA, NH SC

ABC/Washington Post Primary Poll

New Bloomberg/Selzer national primary poll

Bernie Sanders is officially on the ballot in NH

Reuters' 5-day rolling poll & Hillary's firewall

"When Jesus said 'Love your enemies', he probably meant: don’t kill them."

An Evangelical responds to Sanders' speech at Liberty U