California (415), Texas (228) and Pennsylvania (186) account for 839 pledged delegates
Bernie Sanders Pulls Away From Pack in California
Much attention on Super Tuesday will focus on the big prize, California. Sanders expanded his advantage, practically doubling Warren and Biden’s results in the KQED/NPR poll released today. Sanders (30%), Warren (16%) and Biden (15%) were the only three to clear the pivotal 15% threshold to win delegates*. The latter two are within the margin of error, opening up the possibility that Sanders could emerge with a gargantuan haul of pledged delegates. Sanders has closed the gap in California among Black respondents, has a small edge with voters 50 years and older, and enjoys huge advantages with Asian, Latinx, White and under-50 voters. Fully 53% of voters under 35 voiced intent to vote for Sanders.
The second biggest pool of pledged delegates will also be decided Super Tuesday. Right now, it appears voters in the Lone Star state are much more evenly divided between Biden and Sanders. The
Texas Lyceum poll released yesterday was run 1/10-1/19, and showed a more competitive contest than the December CNN poll suggested, with Biden’s edge over Sanders contracting by 18 points. Biden (28%) and Sanders (26%) are the only two clearing the 15% mark.* Warren is within the margin of error, holding steady relative to the CNN poll (13%). Bloomberg (9%) and Buttigieg (6%) swapped positions, having polled at 5% and 9% in December. All candidates trail tRump in head-to-head matchups, though Sanders performed best in hypothetical contests. Sanders trailed 50-47, Biden trailed 51-46 and Warren trailed 52-48.
Looking further ahead in the primary season, the Franklin&Marshall poll for Pennsylvania, which holds its primary April 28, reveals some dramatic movements since their last poll in late October. The same three candidates lead the pack: Biden (22%), Sanders (15%) and Warren (14%). Sanders boost from 12% last fall and upticks in support for Bloomberg (7%), Buttigieg (6%), Klobuchar (5%) and Yang (5%) have chipped away at Biden and Warren, who led the field in October with 30% and 18% respectively. Biden’s 7-point advantage over Sanders represents a sharp drop from his previous 18-point edge. Again, Sanders and Warren will need to clear the 15% mark to avoid a bonanza for Biden.*
* Bear in mind that most states determine roughly 2/3 of pledged delegates by congressional district, and of the remaining at-large delegates, 30-40% are PLEO pledged. At large delegates are divided among candidates winning 15% state-wide, but more delegates are determined at the district level. This means candidates hovering around 15% can get shut out in many congressional districts. Conversely, they can emerge with some delegates even if state-wide, they fall short of the 15% threshold needed to gain at-large delegates.
Information about how each state determines pledged delegates:
California (March 3) has a modified primary.
It has 415 delegates, the most of any state. 271 are allocated by congressional district and 144 are at large. Of those 144, 54 are PLEO pledged. California also has 79 superdelegates.
Texas (March 3) has an open primary. The state has 228 delegates, among the most of any state. 149 are allocated by state Senate district. Another 79 are at large, 30 of which are PLEO pledged. Texas also has 34 superdelegates.
[ed. hat tip to txdoubledd]
Pennsylvania (April 28) has a closed primary. It has 186 delegates — 125 are allocated by congressional districts and 61 are at large, 20 of which are PLEO pledged. Pennsylvania also has 24 superdelegates.
