Meta-Projecting the House: Their Final Answers

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Monday November 06, 2006 · 4:51 PM PST

2006/11/06 · 16:51

I sure hope these guys are right...

T-minus 1 day and counting. I believe all 6 of my celebrity handicappers (Cook, CQ, Evans-Novak, Nat'l Journal, Rothenberg and Sabato) have posted their final projections at this point. Another day and we will find out just how prescient they all were, individually and collectively.

Quite a bit of movement across the board again this week, again predominantly the form of previously lower tier Republican-held districts becoming more interesting. Whether this constitutes a "wave" or not, I can't say. Seems like anyway I can think of to count them, I seem to come up with about about a 26-seat net gain as my best guess for the next House (with all due knocking on wood, throwing salt over shoulder and turning 'round three times and spitting -- not that I'm superstitious or anything).

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Meta-Projecting the House: Week 4

CalD

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Sunday October 29, 2006 · 8:18 AM PST

2006/10/29 · 08:18

Further adventures in quantifying collective wisdom.

Quite a bit of movement all across the board in the House races this week and with only a single exception (FL 16), nearly all in the Democratic direction. All six of the celebrity handicappers I've been tracking have readjusted their rankings at least once in the past week, resulting in a total of 11 districts changing columns in my meta-analysis.

Beginning with the dark side, Mark Foley's FL 16 fell back into the Toss-up column from Leans Dem this week, presumably on the strength of the successful court appeal on hanging signs in the polling places. But moving up to take its place, IA 1, OH 18 and PA 10 have edged into Lean Democratic territory from last week's Toss-Ups list. OH 1 was the single race to move from Leans Repub to the Toss-up list this week but a startling five districts -- AZ 1, CA 4, CA 50, CO 5 and FL 8 -- moved from Republican Favored to the Leans Repub column. And bringing up the rear, NE 3 moves from Safe Repub to Republican Favored. (Reminds me a little of baseball.)

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Meta-Projecting the House: Week 3

CalD

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Sunday October 22, 2006 · 12:07 PM PDT

2006/10/22 · 12:07

Another installment in my quest to collect and quantify the collective wisdom.

Some fairly big doings this week, a lot of relative position changes, but not much resulting movement in the overall totals. Evans-Novak, Cook, CQ and Rothenberg have all updated their rankings in the past week. I have also added Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball to my panel of experts (I knew I was forgetting someone).

That current collective totals come to:
Democratic Safe/Favored/Lean - 209
Republican Safe/Favored/Lean - 203
Toss-Ups - 23

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Meta-Projecting the House: Part Deux.1

CalD

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Tuesday October 17, 2006 · 7:01 AM PDT

2006/10/17 · 07:01

I have updated the Evans-Novak ratings, thanks to a tip from alert commenter davybaby (thanks again, davy). Also decided the "toss-up range" on the scale I used in the last round-up was probably a little too wide at 3 units on a scale of 1-7. So I eliminated the middle value and contracted the scale to a range of 1-6, where 1 = Republican Favored and 6 = Democrat Favored. The score for an un-leaned toss-up would now be 3.5, rather than 4 as on the previous scale, with Rothenberg's and Evans/Novak's tilted toss-ups scoring 3 or 4 instead of 3 or 5.

These changes together resulted in two more current Republican seats getting pushed into Leans Democratic territory. The new overall totals come to:

Democratic Safe/Favored/Lean - 209
Republican Safe/Favored/Lean - 204
Toss-Ups - 22

(But wait! There's more.) Read More

Meta-Projecting the House: Part Deux

CalD

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Saturday October 14, 2006 · 10:21 PM PDT

2006/10/14 · 22:21

All the sources I used in my previous meta-projection (Cook, CQ, Rothenberg and the National Journal) have updated their House projections this past week so I've updated my list as well, based on their new ratings. Also thanks to a post from Kos, I was also able to add the Evans/Novak Political Report to my panel of experts. And while I was at it I refined my methodology a little, assigning a numeric score between 1 and 7 to each risk level, where 7 is a Likely Dem hold or pick-up, 4 is a pure toss-up and 1 is a Likely Republican hold. I interpolated rankings from the National Journal Top 60 list to get numbers in that same range, so that I could average the scores from all five sources and get a single numeric score for each race.

The new totals for this week are:
Democratic Safe/Favored/Lean - 207
Republican Safe/Favored/Lean - 204
Toss-Ups - 24

(continued...) Read More

Meta-Projecting the House of Representatives

CalD

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Sunday October 08, 2006 · 2:50 PM PDT

2006/10/08 · 14:50

I was poring all morning over the latest House race handicapping from CQ Politics, the Cook and Rothenberg Political Reports, and the National Journal's list of the 50 seats most likely to change parties. As you might expect, the hottest races are basically near the top of everyone's list but they do diverge a little as you get away from the tippy-tip top tier. So I started putting together my own list to keep track of which races the experts tend agree are toss-ups.

To make my list, a race had to appear in any 3 of: National Journal's top 30 races, CQ or Cook's toss-up columns or one of Rothenberg's three toss-up categories (or better) -- Rothenberg actually rates a couple of these races as lean or likely Democratic. A total of 22 races made that cut.

(continued...) Read More

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