Give Chafee Some Credit

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Friday November 10, 2006 · 10:05 AM PST

2006/11/10 · 10:05

This from R.I.'s lame-duck Senator:

Chafee, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, told reporters that he did not believe Bolton's nomination would move forward without his support.

"The American people have spoken out against the president's agenda on a number of fronts, and presumably one of those is on foreign policy," the Rhode Island moderate told The Associated Press.

"And at this late stage in my term, I'm not going to endorse something the American people have spoke out against." Read More

Exit Poll Data - Important!

Deeg

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Tuesday November 02, 2004 · 4:56 PM PST

2004/11/02 · 16:56

Per the National Exit polls, 18-29's made up 17% of the vote. That's pretty good, but not spectacular. If the raw data is accurate (women 54% of the vote, Kerry winning by 9%, Bush men by 6%) Kerry will win the national vote by between 2-3%.

In Ohio, Kerry leands 51-49 among men, 53-47 among women. If accurate, Kerry should win by 4+ points, a margin very unlikely to be overturned by inaccuracies. Florida out in five minutes...

Deeg's Fearless Election Projection

Deeg

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Monday November 01, 2004 · 5:39 PM PST

2004/11/01 · 17:39

Well guys, here it is. Based on everything that's happened this week and the current polling, here's how I see it:

Kerry 299
Bush 239

Popular vote: Kerry 49.7%
Bush: 48.2%

Bush is running at about 46.5 among RVs in the average of the latest major national and tracking polls. Based on the "incumbent rule" - which I feel will benefit Kerry slightly less than the usual 67-33 split, more like 55-45 - and the systematic underpolling of 18-29s (who Zogby shows Kerry winning by 30 points) I think my popular guess may be even a little too pro-Bush, but I'll stick with it. Read More

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