So, yesterday, I was listening to one station or another, and today I cannot tell you which it was (yes I read a lot, listen a lot, and read read, read), but I think it might have been NPR. The interview candidate was Marco Rubio’s “pollster”.
He offered a thought that I found interesting, and I think might actually be true. He said, and I am paraphrasing, that when an incumbent candidate he is representing polls under 50%, they are in trouble. He said that if an incumbent is polling at 48%, and their challenger is polling at 45%, the incumbent, on the day of election will receive 48% or so, but the challenger will win. The challenger will gain through the election, while the incumbent will lose.
He said that Hillary Clinton, the “incumbent” seeking a third term under Obama, polled in the same numbers she received at the “polls”. Trump was the winner because he was the challenger. He offered the statistics that reflected Clinton won votes in nearly the exact same percentages as she polled, while the challenger gained, and won.
My own personal experience, never being a Clinton supporter, while I voted for her, was that she never connected with any of us locally. When I say “locally”, I mean my redneck exurb in Palm Beach County, which has liberalized over the years.
Trump did “connect” with so many, and many of them left-wing union supporters, immigrants now “Americans” and white nationalists. I turned off my Facebook long ago, just because so many were so ill-informed. Daily Kos on the left didn’t want to hear from me, and the right definitely did not want to hear from me.
I will not be one of those protesting the election, because I believe she lost, and she lost because she never connected. I will not be one of those protesting her losing, but I will be protesting Trump when it is apparent that he is still the same candidate, now President, offering up the same policies he ran on.
I will not sign a Petition to eliminate the electoral college, as I am being asked to do, because I don’t believe it is the right thing to do in the long term, even while I acknowledge that twice the Dems have lost the electoral college while winning the popular vote. I actually understand the “original” concern of our “founders”.
As for the protests going on because Trump won, I support them. On the other hand, starting fires, burning the flag (yes I believe burning the flag is a legitimate form of protest but doesn’t necessarily help), trashing businesses and cars, are not what I would consider a positive form of protest, nor something I would encourage. As I have pointed out to those who don’t support protest, I do support protest, they should be paid attention to, but as always there are some who act irresponsibly, and make the protest itself seem wrong. Media focuses on those who act irresponsibly.
Can we get our protests right? Is stopping traffic on Interstate Highways, busy roads, and freeways, the best way to gain support? Is starting fires, busting windows and trashing cars the right way to gain attention to legitimate griefs? This is what media focuses on. It sells.
Aren’t we tired of “what sells”, and don’t we need to get it right to make a difference?