Fantasy Redistricting: SuperFlorida

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Friday July 11, 2014 · 6:26 PM PDT

2014/07/11 · 18:26

The year is 2015. In a stunning 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court has just ruled that a centuries-old territorial division was unlawful. The Alabama and Mississippi counties and Louisiana parishes that once constituted the Spanish territory of West Florida must be reunified with Florida, and new congressional maps of each of the affected states redrawn by a special master.

Could this happen? No way. This is the most contrived pretense to have some fun and waste some time since The Expendables 2. But who cares? Let’s have some fun.

SaoMagnifico

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Wednesday July 02, 2014 · 9:48 AM PDT

2014/07/02 · 09:48

So we had an interesting discussion on the Live Digest about a fantasy scenario in which the part of Louisiana that is east of Baton Rouge and north of Lake Ponchartrain were part of neighboring Mississippi. I decided to blow off some steam on a very hot day by doing some map-making to see what the congressional district maps in the states of Louisiana and Mississippi might look like with (a) fair redistricting and (b) this fantasy scenario in effect.

The standard disclaimer applies: I am not advocating that this happen, I do not think it will actually ever happen, I am just having a bit of fun, etc. etc.

SaoMagnifico

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Wednesday June 04, 2014 · 9:15 AM PDT

2014/06/04 · 09:15

So it's been a while since I've done one of these, and this is a pretty quick-and-dirty take -- but I thought it would be fun to see what I could draw if New Mexico were to absorb the heavily Latino Trans-Pecos region of Texas.

The usual caveats apply: I'm not advocating Texas start breaking into chunks, or that New Mexico annex portions of surrounding states, etc. This is just for fun -- just to see what I can do here.

SaoMagnifico

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Saturday October 20, 2012 · 11:37 PM PDT

2012/10/20 · 23:37

Hey, folks. It seems y'all are needing some place to panic, and I am happy to oblige. This is a safe place for you. If you need to scream your head off about some bad poll numbers, or a decline in approval rating, or an anonymous insider saying something ominous-sounding, feel free -- you won't be accused of bedwetting or concern-trolling here.

Panic away!

SaoMagnifico

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Sunday October 14, 2012 · 4:37 PM PDT

2012/10/14 · 16:37

My Cascadia mega-project is temporarily on hold. I understand Dave Bradlee is looking into ways that Canada can be incorporated into DRA (its redistribution, Canadian-speak for "redistricting", is coming up next spring), and I'm going slow on British Columbia in the hopes that I'll eventually be able to do it on the app rather than hand-counting each block group and dissemination block, which takes an excruciating amount of time.

I'm thinking that when I rev back up, I will present at least two visions of Cascadia: first, the broader region, including all of Alaska, Yukon, British Columbia, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Western Montana; and second, the narrower region, including Western Oregon (excluding Southern Oregon, as traditionally defined, and including Hood River County), Western Washington, Vancouver Island, the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, the B.C. coast, and Southeast Alaska.

The broader region basically just cuts four states completely out of the Union and takes away the somewhat more populous western half of Montana. It creates a 46-state Union and would require 18 congressional districts to be reallocated accordingly.

The narrower region actually would leave a 50-state Union, simply minus a few congressional districts that would have to be reallocated. Southeast Alaska's removal doesn't make a huge dent in Alaska's at-large congressional district, but the vast majority of Oregon's population and the significant majority of Washington's population resides west of the Cascade Mountains' crest. In fact, Eastern Oregon, if it were its own state, would be the least populous in the country if Southern Oregon were excluded, and the 45th most populous if it were included. Either way, it would have only one at-large congressional district.

My "solution" -- because I like things to be interesting, not boring -- was to merge Eastern Oregon and Eastern Washington into the state of Imperial, while putting Southern Oregon together with the counties of Northern California to create the state of Jefferson (following the expanded modern "definition" including more counties than the original 1941 proposal).

SaoMagnifico

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Saturday May 19, 2012 · 10:19 PM PDT

2012/05/19 · 22:19

I must apologize for the lateness of this update. I had intended to do it several days ago, but developments last week in my personal and professional life (all good ones, rest assured) forced me to defer it to the weekend.

With that noted, let us proceed to the first edition of these 2012 gubernatorial race ratings.

SaoMagnifico

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Saturday May 12, 2012 · 2:17 PM PDT

2012/05/12 · 14:17

Earlier this week, we explored the state of play in the presidential race. But now we turn back to what may be the real action on Nov. 6 -- the battle for control of Congress.

Candidly, not much has changed from the previous update. But what few shifts there have been appear to have boosted the fortunes of the party that holds the majority in the respective chambers.

SaoMagnifico

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Tuesday May 08, 2012 · 2:21 PM PDT

2012/05/08 · 14:21

Since the first series of race ratings were published last month, not a lot has changed. We remain months away from general elections — a political eternity — but it is instructive to look at polling data that consistently shows public opinion has already hardened. There is a large proportion of the American electorate that has resolved to oppose President Barack Obama and the Democrats, as well as a similarly sized proportion resolved to support him while opposing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and the Republicans.

While the media is eager to seize on any data or analysis that posits the presidential race as a close battle, the occupant of the White House from Jan. 20, 2013, to Jan. 20, 2017, will be decided by the Electoral College, not by the nationwide popular vote. And with state-by-state polling giving the incumbent a clear edge, even in some states he won in 2008 that Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., and Vice President Al Gore lost (Virginia and Colorado, namely), it is hard to argue looking at the data and the dynamics of the race that Obama is not at least somewhat favored.

The media is right about one thing, though: the country is deeply polarized. The electoral map is not likely to look dramatically different than it did in 2008 because Obama simply cannot win over enough of the voters who hate him to significantly expand the map, and Romney cannot win over enough of the voters who hate him to have more than a very narrow path to victory.

Obama could still claim a landslide victory and win more states this year than he did in 2008, but his opportunities to play offense are largely the same as they were when he was first elected over Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

Meanwhile, Romney could rebound in the polls and capture enough battleground states to edge Obama, but it is extremely difficult to envision him winning more than 290 electoral votes under the best-case scenario. (Obama won 365 electoral votes in 2008. To win, 270 votes are needed of 538 available.)

Last month’s race ratings stuck to analyzing the House and Senate races this year. Those remain on the radar, but aside from some campaign news and a few surprising results in infrequently polled races moving a few ratings around, there have been no dramatic changes. The congressional state of play will be explored later on this week.

For now, let us look at the presidential election, state by state.

SaoMagnifico

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Saturday April 07, 2012 · 8:42 PM PDT

2012/04/07 · 20:42

Well, I've finally gotten around to doing race ratings for the 2012 cycle. I have a nice big spreadsheet up on my computer, but since the vast majority of races aren't competitive, I will share with you some of the more competitive races right now as I see them.

If you have any questions about any other race as I see it, just let me know in comments and I'll provide my assessment.

As an obligatory note, all of these ratings are highly subject to change. It's still seven months to Election Day, after all.

SaoMagnifico

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Wednesday April 04, 2012 · 8:21 PM PDT

2012/04/04 · 20:21

Last weekend, millions of eco-conscious citizens of the world saved the planet from going the way of Alderaan, and it only took an hour.

I refer, of course, to “Earth Hour,” a worldwide event in which participating individuals, households and businesses power down for 60 minutes, turning off lights and unplugging energy-sucking appliances. Earth Hour has been celebrated annually since 2007, and it must be working, because so far the Earth is intact.

Like most people, I did not observe Earth Hour. I slept in on Saturday, though, which had roughly the same effect.

I also did not partake in a rival event some boosters are calling “Human Achievement Hour.” The point of Human Achievement Hour is to show how awesome the human race is by turning on as many gizmos and gadgets as are readily available, sucking up as much energy as possible and generating the maximum amount of pollution — seemingly, mostly because we can.

SaoMagnifico

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Tuesday April 03, 2012 · 8:44 PM PDT

2012/04/03 · 20:44

Four years ago, Maryland held its primary concurrently with the District of Columbia and Virginia in the so-called “Potomac primaries.” Then-Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., swept all three contests, extending his delegate lead over then-Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., and bringing a jolt of recognition to many watchers that the insurgent Midwesterner would, in fact, be the Democratic nominee.

Turnout in Maryland was high — record-breaking, in fact. In Maryland’s black-majority 4th congressional district, progressive Donna Edwards ousted then-Rep. Al Wynn in the Democratic primary. On the Republican side, then-Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, the moderate longtime congressman for Maryland’s 1st congressional district, was defeated by conservative Andy Harris.

Edwards would go on to serve in Congress. Harris would fall short in the general election, only to win election on his second try, in 2010.

Four years ago, Maryland politics was wild and wonderful, and it seemed just about everyone was fired up and excited to make history with their votes.

Fast-forward to today. Record low turnout was reported at many polling sites. An election judge at the University of Maryland’s polling place in Stamp Student Union inhaled in dismay at the number of votes that had been cast as of shortly after 1 p.m., at the tail end of the usually bustling lunch period: a whopping 17.

What happened? Why, at the same time turnout boomed in distant Wisconsin, did Marylanders take a look at the gorgeous, sunny weather outside, take a look at the pile of campaign literature on their counter and the cache of robocalls on their answering machines, and utter a collective “meh?”

SaoMagnifico

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Saturday March 31, 2012 · 5:15 PM PDT

2012/03/31 · 17:15

In the aftermath of another politically charged week of Supreme Court arguments, there seems to be some reason to wonder why we don't just give up the ghost and list (D) or (R) after the name of each high court justice.

On the court's liberal wing, Justices Stephen Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg made little effort to disguise their efforts to boost Solicitor General Donald Verrelli, Jr., by stepping in and articulating arguments in favor of the Obama administration's health care law when Verrelli stumbled.

Meanwhile, conservative Justice Antonin Scalia chortled with barely concealed glee over the prospect of overturning the entire law based on the disputed constitutionality of the individual insurance mandate. Justice Clarence Thomas, a fellow conservative whose wife has actively campaigned against the law and donated money to activist groups opposing it, maintained his characteristic silence during verbal arguments -- yet his ultimate vote is not remotely in question.

There is little doubt the eventual decision in the case will be a 5-4 ruling in one direction or the other. And there is little doubt that the swing vote will belong to Justice Anthony Kennedy, the least reflexively conservative of the court's five conservative justices.

This is not a one-off phenomenon.

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Gubernatorial Race Ratings (20 May 2012)

Congressional Race Ratings (12 May 2012)

Presidential Race Ratings (8 May 2012)

Congressional Race Ratings (7 April 2012)

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Lousy Turnout in Maryland Should Embarrass All, But Especially Candidates

In Defense of the Judicial Filibuster