Below is a survey of the House playing field as it’s shaping up. I have combined the race ratings of the Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and DK Elections and then used districts’ PVI as a tiebreaker. PVI was calculated by averaging the districts’ deviation from the national result in the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections. Thus a district that Obama won 52-48 in each election would have a PVI of (R+1) because Obama won by 5.1 in 2012 and by 7.4 in 2008). Overall, there are just shy of 30 seats seen as truly competitive (consensus lean hold or better), but a total of 47 GOP seats rated as at least likely hold by at least one source. Because FL-02 is gone due to Florida’s remap, the Dems need at least 31 (possibly a few more given the handful of tight defensive races) to gain the majority. Anyway, here is the current prognosticator composite:
R seats
1. FL-10 (OPEN (New Seat)) (PVI D+8.4). Should be a gimme. The real action is in the Dem primary among former Orlando police chief Val Demings (D), former state Dem chair Bob Poe (D), and St. Sen. Geraldine Thompson. Gimmee pickup.
2. VA-04 (OPEN (New Seat)) (PVI D+7.9). Also should be a gimmee but state Sen. Don McEachin (D) at least has a real opponent in Henrico County Sheriff Mike Wade (R). Another gimmee pickup.
3. FL-13 (David Jolly) (PVI D+3.1). Jolly’s seat got made a lot bluer and he bailed into the Senate race when ex-Gov. Charlie Crist (D) got in. He’s now bailed right back, but Crist is the favorite.
4. IA-01 (Rod Blum) (PVI: D+5.2). Blum was a 2014 fluke in a blue district and should be toast against former state Rep. Monica Vernon (D).
5. NV-04 (Cresent Hardy) (PVI: D+3.8). A similar situation to IA-01. Hardy’s win was fluky amid dismal Dem turnout. State Sen. and Harry Reid protege Ruben Kihuen just won the right to face Hardy and is the clear favorite.
6. NV-03 (OPEN (Heck)) (PVI: R+0.3). Dems just got a huge gift as businessman and perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian (R) upset state Sen. Michael Roberson, giving software developer Jacky Rosen (D) a leg up.
7. NH-01 (Frank Guinta) (PVI: R+0.8). Guinta is in deep doo doo over campaign finance improprieties. He’s traded the seat back and forth with Fmr. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D), who is back again, but Guinta may not make it to November; he faces a tough primary against businessman Rich Ashooh (R).
8. MN-02 (OPEN (Kline)) (PVI: R+2.0). Kline’s retirement offers Dems a great pickup opportunity, especially since they have coalesced behing health care executive Angie Craig (D), while the Republicans are fairly likely to be stuck with controversial loudmouth radio personality Jason Lewis (R). Lewis won the party endorsement at the convention but still faces three other candidates in the Aug. 9 primary.
9. IL-10 (Bob Dold) (PVI: D+8.2). Dold has the bluest district held by a GOPer (where I grew up). He faces his third battle with Fmr. Rep. Brad Schneider (D), who won in 2012 and then lost in 2014.
10. NY-24 (John Katko) (PVI: D+4.8). Katko was another surprise winner in 2014, but he beat a Dem incumbent by 20 points. He faces the winner of a 3-way primary between former congressional staffer Colleen Deacon (D), attorney Steve Williams (D), and professor Eric Kingson (D).
11. FL-26 (Carlos Curbelo) (PVI: D+1.0). This district got bluer under the Florida remap and Curbelo is going to be facing a Latino electorate with Trump at the top of the ticket. He faces either former Miami-Dade County Dem chair Annette Taddeo (D) or the man he beat, Fmr. Rep. Joe Garcia (D), who has had to deal with scandals. The establishment would like to see Taddeo win the primary.
12. NY-22 (OPEN (Hanna)) (PVI: R+2.8). Hanna was one of the last moderate GOPers. Wealthy Broome County legislator Kim Myers (D) has a good chance against the winner of a 3-way GOP primary among far right Assemb. Claudia Tenney (R), businessman Steve Wells (R), and fmr. Broome County leg. George Phillips (R).
13. TX-23 (Will Hurd) (PVI: R+3.2). The one competitive seat features a rematch between Hurd and Fmr. Rep. Pete Gallego (D). See above discussion re: Trump and Latino turnout.
14. PA-08 (OPEN (Fitzpatrick)) (PVI: R+0.9). Former FBI agent and brother of the retiring Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick (R) tries to hold this swing seat in a crucial region against State Rep. Steve Santarsiero (D).
15. ME-02 (Bruce Poliquin) (PVI: D+2.2). Poliquin won this seat as an open seat in 2014 and is the only GOPer from New England in the House other than Guinta (see above). He faces a rematch with Fmr. State Sen. and ‘14 nominee Emily Cain (D), but this time in a Presidential year.
16. IA-03 (David Young) (PVI: R+0.2). Young also won an open seat race in 2014 in a marginal district. He faces veteran Jim Mowrer (D), who ran and lost in IA-04 in 2014.
17. WI-08 (OPEN (Ribble)) (PVI: R+1.5). Dems have united behind Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson (D). The GOPers will have an August primary between State Sen. Frank Lasee (R), connected fmr. staffer Mike Gallagher (R), and third wheel realtor Terry McNulty (R).
18. CO-06 (Mike Coffman) (PVI: D+0.7). Coffman’s seat got a lot bluer in the last round of redistricting but he survived reasonably comfortably that year and then easily turned back a strong candidate in the 2014 GOP wave. He has another strong opponent this year in State Sen. Morgan Carroll (D).
19. NY-01 (Lee Zeldin) (PVI: R+1.9). Another 2014 frosh in a marginal seat. This one has hewed closer to Trump than should be healthy. He will face either Southampton Town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst (D) or Suffolk Planning Commission Chair Dave Calone (D).
20. NY-19 (OPEN (Gibson)) (PVI: D+0.8). This marginal open seat will feature either law school professor Zephyr Teachout (D) or Livingston Town Councilman Will Yandik (D) against Fmr. State Ammeb. Min. Ldr. John Faso (R) (the GOP’s 2006 gubernatorial sacrificial lamb) or businessman Andrew Heaney (R). Teachout and Faso appear to be the respective favorites.
21. MI-01 (OPEN (Benishek)) (PVI: R+4.6)). This seat in the Upper Peninsula is traditionally Dem, albeit less so at the top of the ticket and has had a number of very close results in recent years. State Dem Chair Lon Johnson (D) is the favorite over 2014 nominee Ret. Gen. Jerry Cannon (D) to face one of State Sen. Tom Casperson (R), Fmr. State Sen. Jason Allen (R), or Ret. Gen. Jack Bergman (R)).
22. UT-04 (Mia Love) (PVI: R+16.2). Love grossly underperformed against attorney Doug Owens (D) in the GOP wave of 2014. In their rematch, a public poll has shown Owens ahead. Polling has also shown Donald Trump grossly underperforming GOP performance in Utah, raising the possibility of a perfect storm for Owens in a generic 2-1 GOP district (albeit one that elected Jim Matheson (D) until he retired in 2014).
23. MI-07 (Tim Walberg) (PVI: R+2.7). Walberg has won, lost, and won again and carries the reputation of being far right wing in this light red district. He faces a strong challenge from State Rep. Gretchen Driskell (D).
24. VA-10 (Barbara Comstock) (PVI: R+3.2). Comstock won her open seat race in ’14 comfortably but now needs to defend a blue-trending NoVa seat in a Presidential year. She faces real estate developer LuAnn Bennett (D), who is the ex-wife of former Rep. Jim Moran (D VA-08).
25. CA-25 (Steve Knight) (PVI: R+3.0). Freshman Knight won a R vs. R race in 2014 in this light red district thanks to California’s goofy top two primary system. This time, national Dems got the general election candidate they wanted in attorney Bryan Caforio (D).
26. AZ-02 (Martha McSally) (R+3.4). Yet another 2014 wave winner, McSally won the closest race in the country last time. Despite that and despite the fact that there is some speculation that Trump may supercharge Latino turnout and put Arizona in play, there has not been a great deal of focus on McSally. She faces one of two former state Reps.: Victoria Steele (D) or Matt Heinz (D).
27. NJ-05 (Scott Garrett) (R+4.1). Like Walberg, Garrett is a GOPer who has had a tougher time than most in his light red district because of his wingnuttery. In particular, he is a religious wingnut in a district where business Republicans dominate. His comments and actions against the LGBT community have alienated big money donors, and it looks like there is an opening for former Clinton aide Josh Gottheimer.
28. MN-03 (Erik Paulsen) (R+1.7). Paulsen has had no trouble holding this swing district since being elected in 2010, succeeding fellow GOP “moderate” Jim Ramstad. He has drawn a strong opponent in State Sen. Terri Bonoff (D).
29. CA-21 (David Valadao) (D+1.5). Valadao has been fortunate in drawing weak opponents and seeing weak Latino turnout since this district was created in 2012. With Trump at the top of the ticket and attorney Emilio Huerta (D), the son of UFW co-founder Dolores Huerta, squeaking into the second general election spot, Valadao will be hard pressed to maintain those advantages this year.
30. CA-10 (Jeff Denham) (R+1.1). This is a rematch between Denham and farmer Michael Eggman (D). Denham won 56-44 in 2014 and just beat Eggman 48-28 in the 4-way primary, with another Dem taking 14 and another GOPer taking 10.
31. NY-23 (Tom Reed) (R+2.9). This upstate NY seat has been elusive for the Dems, with several close-but-no-cigar results in recent years. Reed faces fmr. National Security Council Official John Plumb (D), who has shown decent fundraising.
32. CO-03 (Scott Tipton) (R+4.7). Tipton has had little trouble in this light red district but he now has a formidable opponent in Fmr. State Sen. Gail Schwartz (D) and this is another district where a spike in Latino turnout could sink a GOPer.
33. FL-07 (John Mica) (R+2.0). Mica got a new, fairly evenly decided district in the Florida remap. But four days from the filing deadline, the only announced Dem is computer engineer Todd Byars (D). Mica also faces a primary challenge from Fmr. Orange County Soil and Water Commissioner Mark Busch (R). This one bears watching both in case another Dem emerges at the last minute or in case a wave develops.
34. IL-12 (Mike Bost) (D+0.4). Bost picked up a traditionally Dem seat in southern Illinois (across the river from St. Louis) in the GOP wave of 2014. He faces attorney C.J. Baricevic (D), the son of a Madison County Judge.
35. NY-21 (Elise Stefanik) (D+0.0). Yet another 2014 GOP freshman in a tight district. Stefanik faces retired army officer and former State Department official Mike Derrick (D).
36. CA-49 (Darrell Issa) (R+4.3). This race was the surprise of CA primary night; Issa beat attorney and Iraq veteran Doug Applegate (D) only 51.5-45. It definitely bears watching, especially if Trump kills the California GOP even deader than they were before.
37. MT-AL (Ryan Zinke) (R+6.9). Freshman Zinke drew a strong opponent: state Superintendent of Public Education Denise Juneau (D), another statewide officeholder. Montana is still red in Presidential years, but perhaps less than usual with Trump.
38. AK-AL (Don Young) (R+12.0). Young has been in Congress since the dinosaurs roamed the earth and has become an old crank who often puts his foot in his mouth. His results against weak challengers have been lackluster in recent years. Fmr. Alaska Public Media CEO Steve Lindbeck (D) may be a cut above the usual fare, but he needs to get past retired professor Bill Hibler (D) and frequent candidate Lynette Moreno-Hinz (D).
39. PA-06 (Ryan Costello) (R+1.7). Yet another GOP frosh in a marginal district, albeit one that has been elusive for the Dems. Costello faces businessman and Iraq veteran Mike Parrish (D).
40. VA-05 (OPEN (Hurt)) (R+6.1). Dems held this seat for one term (2008-10) before it was picked up by Hurt. This year features a contest between State Sen. Tom Garrett (R) and Albemarle County Board Chair Jane Dittmar (D). Garrett is the favorite, but an upset in a wave is possible.
41. IL-13 (Rodney Davis) (R+0.1). This swing seat was close with Presidential turnout in 2012. This year, Davis faces Macon County Board member Mark Wicklund (D). Complicating things for Team Blue is the fact that iconoclastic ’12 and ’14 Dem nominee David Gill is running as an independent.
42. NJ-13 (Tom MacArthur) (R+0.8). One of the Dems’ biggest recruiting fails. MacArthur won the open swing seat in ’14 in the GOP wave. Dems missed out on several recruiting targets and their nominee is loan officer Frederick LaVergne. Still, in a wave…
43. WA-08 (Dave Reichert) (R+1.2). Reichert has always been able to punch above his weight electorally due to his past popularity as a high profile sheriff. In addition, his district got a bit redder in 2012. Nonetheless, popular local sportscaster Tony Ventrella (D) might be able to give Reichert a run for his money, assuming he gets past real estate broker Santiago Ramos (D) and management consultant Alida Skold (D) in the primary.
44. PA-07 (Pat Meehan) (R+2.4). Meehan was seen as a target early on in this suburban swing seat but nationally favored candidate Bill Golderer (D) lost to underfunded 2014 nominee and professor Mary Ellen Balchunis (D), who lost 62-38 last time. This is a Presidential year and challengers often do better the second time, but that’s a steep hill to climb.
45. MI-11 (Dave Trott) (R+3.3). Trott is another freshman. He faces Dr. Anil Kumar (D) in a lean R district.
46. PA-16 (OPEN (Pitts)) (R+4.1). This district held by longtime Rep. Joe Pitts is surprisingly competitive on paper. That said, the GOP has a strong candidate in State Sen. Lloyd Smucker (R) in an area the GOP is accustomed to winning. Consultant Christina Hartman (D) hopes to catch lightning in a bottle.
47. VA-02 (OPEN (Rigell)) (R+4.2). Another big recruiting fail. This is a marginal seat following Virginia’s remap and it is open. The Dem nominee, however, is frequent candidate Shaun Brown (D). She faces State Del. Scott Taylor (R), who beat Rep. Randy Forbes (R) in the GOP primary.
In addition, there are 7 seats with a PVI of better than R+2.5 that would be the natural seats to become competitive if a wave develops. They are:
- NJ-02 (Frank LoBiondo) (D+1.2). LoBiondo faces businessman Dave Cole (D);
- FL-27 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen) (R+0.9). Ros-Lehtinen faces one of four Dems, the highest profile of whom is company owner Scott Fuhrman (D);
- NY-02 (Peter King) (R+0.9). King faces Suffolk County Leg. DuWayne Gregory (D);
- MI-06 (Fred Upton) (R+1.2). Upton faces a rematch with professor Paul Clements (D), who Upton beat 56-44 in 2014;
- WI-07 (Sean Duffy) (R+1.6). Duffy faces either Marathon County Supervisor Joel Lewis (D) or professor Mary Hoeft (D);
- PA-15 (Charlie Dent) (R+2.2). Dent faces social services executive Rick Daugherty (D);
- WA-03 (Jamie Herrera-Beutler) (R+2.3). Herrera-Beutler faces one of four Dems, the most prominent of whom is State House Speaker Pro Tem Jim Moeller (D).
Further, there are 7 seats that are either open or with incumbents in unique circumstances that could allow for a surprise:
- FL-06 (OPEN (DeSantis)) (R+3.9). This may end up not being open if Marco Rubio jumps into the Senate race and DeSantis drops down. It’s a newly drawn seat, but one that retains a slight GOP edge and the GOP candidate look stronger at this point;
- IA-04 (Steve King) (R+5.3). Is this the year King’s mouth finally gets him sent packing? Probably not, but not out of the question. King faces O’Brien County Dem Chair Kim Weaver (D);
- NC-13 (OPEN (New Seat)) (R+5.9). This newly-drawn seat is the most competitive in the state, but that’s not saying much. Gun range owner (and Club For Growth protégé) Tedd Budd (R) faces Fmr. Guilford Couty Comm’r Bruce Davis (D);
- MI-10 (OPEN (Miller)) (R+6.2). This is a red seat, but Dems have a candidate who looks decent on paper in Fmr. State Rep. and Fmr. Macomb County Comm’r Frank Accavitti, Jr. (D). Five GOPers are running.
- NC-09 (Robert Pittenger) (R+8.5). Pittenger, whose family business is under FBI investigation, won his primary by less than 200 votes and with less than 35% of the vote. This is a super red district, but there is new territory for Pittenger thanks to the remap and if other shoes drop, businessman Christian Cano (D) could end up an unlikely Congressman;
- IN-09 (OPEN (Young)) (R+8.7). Incumbent Todd Young is the GOP nominee for Indiana’s open Senate seat and the GOP primary was won by an out and out carpetbagger from Tennessee, businessman Trey Hollingsworth (R). This could leave an opening for Monroe County Comm’r and 2012 nominee Shelli Yoder (D); and
- LA-04 (OPEN (Fleming)) (R+12.5). Incumbent John Fleming is seeking the open Senate seat. Races in Louisiana tend to develop late given that the filing deadline is July 22 and the November vote serves as a jungle primary, with runoffs in December if no one gets a majority. No Dems have stepped forward yet, but Dems came close in a couple recent elections here.
Finally, there are 14 Dem seats rated at least a little competitive in addition to the expected loss of the newly drawn FL-02—although only 6 are seen as truly competitive. Obviously, losing any of the below increases the number of GOP seats needed for a majority. The following are the rankings from most to least vulnerable:
1. FL-02 (OPEN (New Seat)) (PVI: R+17.7). The Florida remap destroyed Rep. Gwen Graham’s North Florida seat, making the new FL-02 unwinnable. She’s retiring and the action to succeed her is on the GOP side.
2. FL-18 (OPEN (Murphy)) (PVI: R+2.8). Rep. Patrick Murphy ousted crazy GOPer Allen West from this swing seat in 2012 and now Murphy is running for Senate. Both parties have competitive primaries here. The Dem frontrunner is likely businessman Randy Perkins (D), who faces attorney Jonathan Chane (D) and engineer Juan Xuna (D). There are 8 GOPers running, the most significant of whom are ’14 nominee and Fmr. State Rep. Carl Domino (R) (who got smoked by Murphy 60-40 despite the GOP wave) and Martin County School Board Memb. Rebecca Negron (R) (the wife of state House Speaker Joe Negron).
3. NY-03 (OPEN (Israel)) (PVI: R+0.2). Rep. and former DCCC chair Steve Israel (Dr. Doom) unexpectedly announced his retirement. Dems have a five-way primary to succeed him in this Long Island swing district. Likely from top to bottom, the list is Suffolk County Leg. Steve Stern (D), Fmr. Nassau Cty. Executive Tom Suozzi (D), Fmr. North Hempstead Town Supervisor Jon Kaiman (D), North Hempstead Town Councilwoman Anna Kaplan (D), and attorney Jonathan Clarke (D). The winner will face State Sen. Jack Martins (R) in what likely will be a close race, albeit one subject to Presidential coattails.
4. AZ-01 (OPEN (Kirkpatrick)) (PVI: R+4.3). Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is running against Sen. John McCain (which is not good news for the latter). It might be good news for GOPers looking to score a House pickup, though. Dems have consolidated behind Fmr. State Sen. (and ex-GOPer) Tom O’Halleran (D), who faces businessman Miguel Olivas (D) in the primary. The GOPers have a 7-way primary where the big names appear to be Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu (R) (who had a disastrous abortive run in AZ-04 in 2014), Fmr. AZ Sec’y of State Ken Bennett (R), state House Speaker David Gowan (R), and rancher Gary Kiehne (R) (who almost won the nomination in ’14). Also running are St. Sen. (and former Dem) Carlyle Begay (R), businessman Shawn Redd (R), and retired Air Force Officer Wendy Rogers (R) (another frequent past candidate). Looks to be very competitive.
5. NE-02 (Brad Ashford) (PVI: R+4.3). Ashford ousted GOPer Lee Terry in one of the bright spots for the Dems in 2014. This seat is by far the bluest in Nebraska (and even gave its lone electoral vote to Obama in 2008). Ashford faces so far underfunded Gen. Don Bacon (R).
6. CA-07 (Ami Bera) (PVI: R+0.5). Bera sits in a marginal district that elected Republicans before he came along, has feuded with labor, and faces a credible opponent in Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones. That said, Jones has an uphill fight to knock of Bera in November on a ticket under Trump. For what it’s worth, Bera beat Jones 53-47 in the open primary.
7. MN-08 (Rick Nolan) (PVI: D+0.8). Nolan faces a rematch with rich guy Stewart Mills (R), who Nolan beat 49-47 in 2014. Challengers often do better the second time, but if Mills couldn’t win in the midterm GOP wave, it’s hard to see him doing so in a Presidential year.
8. CA-52 (Scott Peters) (PVI: D+1.9). Peters has been more of a target in the past. This time, he faces political consultant Denise Gitsham. FWIW, Peters took 58% in the all-candidate primary, with Gitsham taking 17%, and the remaining four GOPers getting the other 25%.
9. CA-24 (OPEN (Capps)) (PVI: D+3.9). Dems feared that two Republicans would slip into the general here, but they lucked out. Not only did the (perceived) strongest Dem, Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal (D) finish first by an 11-point margin, the second slot was taken by the (perceived) weaker GOPer, businessman Justin Fareed (R). Overall, the four Dems combined for 53% and the three Republicans had 45%, with the remainder going to two independents.
10. CA-36 (Raul Ruiz) (PVI: R+1.2). Ruiz faces St. Sen. Jeff Stone (R). This seat has trended blue, and Ruiz had little trouble in the 2014 wave. He defeated Stone in the primary 58-32, with another Republican taking 10%.
11. MD-06 (John Delaney) (PVI: D+4.1). Delaney had an unexpectedly tight race in 2014, but that is not particularly likely to repeat itself this year. He faces well funded Fmr. Dep. Undersecretary of the Army Amie Hoeber (R).
12. AZ-09 (Kirsten Sinema) (PVI: R+0.7). The ship has probably sailed on Sinema being vulnerable. She faces either attorney John Agra (R) or business consultant Dave Giles (R).
13. NY-18 (Sean Maloney) (PVI: R+0.5). Maloney survived 2014, but will likely be fine in 2016. He faces either consultant Phil Oliva (R) or filmmaker Ken Del Vecchio (R).
14. NH-02 (Annie Kuster) (PVI: D+2.9). Kuster’s race is likely to be the least exciting of New Hampshire’s contest for President, Senate, Governor, and House. There are currently 7 GOPers in for the right to face her, the most prominent likely being Fmr. State House Maj. Leader Jack Flanagan (R), but he is despised by wingnuts so the primary should get ugly.
15. CA-31 (Pete Aguilar) (PVI: D+5.3). Aguilar picked this seat up in 2014 after a 2012 clusterfuck sent two Republicans to the general election (and, inevitably, one to Congress). The incumbent bailed rather than face Aguilar. He instead faced businessman Paul Chabot (R), who held Aguilar to a 51-49 win. Chabot is back again but lost to Aguilar 43-23 in the all party primary, with former Dem Rep. Joe Baca, running as a Republican, taking 12%, another GOPer taking 11%, and another Dem taking 11%.
