Today She Became a Citizen Again

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Wednesday August 24, 2016 · 6:05 PM PDT

2016/08/24 · 18:05

Back in April Gov. Terry McAuliffe restored the voting rights of 206,000 ex-offenders that had served their sentences and paid their debt to society. About 13,000 of those people registered to vote, but the Republican General Assembly sued the Governor and claimed the move was not only unconstitutional, but an opportunistic move to help his friend, Hillary Clinton. The Virginia Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that McAuliffe violated the constitution of Virginia and rescinded the voting rights of those 13,000 that foolishly thought society was really forgiving them.

That wasn’t going to stop Terry McAuliffe. This week the Governor completed individually reviewing each case and individually restoring the rights of each of those 13,000. The court ruled that McAuliffe didn’t have the right to restore the rights to a class, but he clearly has the right to restore those rights individually. I will not get into the history or racist reasons why Virginia is but one of a small minority of states that doesn’t restore the voting rights of felons without a lot of red tape, but let’s just say it is a left-over from the early 1900s, when any means of preventing African Americans from voting was implemented. This has all been discussed here quite thoroughly.

My friend, who I will not name, received this letter today and by the end of the day was registered again for the second time in just a month or two. She served her time and is a model citizen. She earns a good living helping people and should have been able to vote the day after her sentence was completed at the very least. I got a happy text message with a photograph of the letter a few hours ago and I am very happy for her and her husband. I am sharing that with you with her permission although I had to wipe any identifying information. Hopefully I have not screwed that up.

Here’s the part that may disturb some of you. This person is voting for Donald Trump. All I can say is that for me, this is one vote for Donald Trump that I will be happy to see cast. Probably the only one. Those who claim the governor is trying to gain unfair advantage would have him do what? Would they want him to delay the restoration of the rights until after the election? Then it would be fair huh? Would that be fair to all the souls who for over a century have been denied the most basic right we cherish? Just wait until another election passes and then you can have what you should have had for a century. No way. Now is what is appropriate. Thank you Terry McAuliffe.

PPP Colorado Snap Poll

brkramer

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Tuesday October 16, 2012 · 8:13 PM PDT

2012/10/16 · 20:13

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Obama's winning our post-debate snap poll in Colorado. We should have full results between 11:15 and 11:30

Looking good. Hope I can stay awake twenty minutes.

Thank you Mr. President!

Has Obama Already Won Ohio?

brkramer

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Thursday October 11, 2012 · 7:59 AM PDT

2012/10/11 · 07:59

The media really wants this to be a horse race, but by my wild estimate, Obama has pretty much locked up Ohio and Romney is wasting valuable time when he campaigns in the state. Nate Silver's model gives Obama a 67% chance of winning Ohio. I think that number had better go up a considerable degree tonight. NBC/Marist finds that 18% of Ohio voters have already voted. Of that 18%, 63% have voted for Obama. Of the remaining who have yet to vote, Obama leads by 48/46. Anyone good at math? My wild guess is Romney would have to carry the remaining voters by 60/40 in order to win the state. He is double digits away from that.

The other 538 result I might have to take issue with is the possibility that Obama loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college. 538 places the probability of that outcome at 3.8%. I think with Ohio in Obama's column so early, those odds at least approach double digit percentages. If this election is tight as all odds are pointing to at this point, Obama is really going to have to blow the last two debates to make things worse then they are right now. I'd much rather see Obama win everything, but an only electoral college victory would be sweet payback for 2000.

Romney does have a path to victory even if Ohio is lost as I postulate, but it isn't easy. Let's put NH in Obama's column. For Obama to win, he needs (Iowa OR Wisconsin) AND (Colorado OR Nevada). Forget Virginia or Florida because they are not needed if those two states are captured. With Wisconsin even New Hampshire isn't necessary.

Don't you love the headline for this news story: http://firstread.nbcnews.com/...
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll: Romney gains in key swing states

How about: Obama most probably has won Ohio

Or: What are you doing in Ohio Romney?

Truth be told, Romney needs to concentrate on the four states I mentioned with Iowa and Colorado being most important. He is wasting his time and money in Ohio.

Maybe some good news from PPP

brkramer

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Saturday October 06, 2012 · 7:20 PM PDT

2012/10/06 · 19:20

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Other thing I'll say is Saturday interviews we've done for polls across the country look a lot more like our pre-debate than Friday numbers

For Barack Obama and the people that support him, today hasn't been a great day when it comes to polling information. It has been fairly depressing. Basically all the progress made in recent months appeared to have collapsed, because Mitt Romney was able to convincingly lie his way through a debate and our President was unable to stop him.

We know the debate did no good and actually did harm, but what about Friday's job numbers? The above Tweet from PPP would lead me to believe the numbers may have mitigated the damage from the debate. We shall see, hopefully as early as tomorrow when PPP releases the VA numbers. I'm not sure if the VA numbers will include interviews from today, but my hope is they will and they will be good.

Hint of Significant Obama Bump

brkramer

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Thursday September 06, 2012 · 2:11 PM PDT

2012/09/06 · 14:11

With the exception of last night's voice vote, the Democratic convention has been a solid plus in the battle to re-elect President Obama. I've anxiously been awaiting some sign of a bump in the President's numbers and at 1pm today, I got my wish.

Gallup hasn't been the most friendly pollster for the President, but unlike Rasmussen, I feel like I can trust them to not pull numbers out of thin air. There are two daily tracking polls worth paying attention to from Gallup. We have all been paying close attention to the horserace numbers where Obama leads Romney 47/46. The horserace numbers are arrived at by a 7 day rolling average. A 47/46 race today only includes 2 nights or 2/7ths of convention watchers. Only a small subset of the voting population watches the conventions. Effects don't necessarily occur immediately. You have to wait until opinion leaders have spread the gospel and that can take some time. Gallup has had Obama over Romney by one for the entire Republican convention, the time in between and to this day.

Then I noticed some numbers that are very interesting. Gallup also measures the President's approval rating, but this a three day rolling average. From 9/1--->9/3 Obama was upside down at 45/48. From 9/2--->9/4 Obama was even at 47/47. Here's the really good news. From 9/3--->9/5 Obama was rightside up at 49/45. The President has moved from -3 to +4 in just two days. That's a seven point swing. A good speech tonight and good job numbers Friday morning and this race could be effectively over. I wonder how much longer the Koch brothers are going to be willing to throw good money after bad?

http://www.gallup.com/...

The Making of a Republican Disaster

brkramer

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Tuesday September 14, 2010 · 6:07 PM PDT

2010/09/14 · 18:07

As the Tea Party continues the takeover of the Republican party, replacing mainstream candidates with their own, a scenario is shaping up that puts the Democratic party well within range of doing quite well in the Senate this election season. I find it depressing that so fine a line divides the Democratic party from an unmitigated disaster and a pretty rosy result for a mid-term election. Then again, that same thin line offers me a lot of hope.

Lets look at the races and be optimistic for a moment. Let's look at what we can reasonably achieve with a lot of hard work.

brkramer

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Monday November 03, 2008 · 7:21 PM PST

2008/11/03 · 19:21

According to PPP, Obama may well have already won the election. How is this possible you might ask? It all hinges on the state of Nevada. The pundits have been throwing out all the possible scenarios where John McCain wins this election. The one I worry about the most is a repeat of 2000. I'm not terribly worried about Pennsylvania. What I worry about is Virginia, Colorado, Ohio and Florida. These are all states that Al Gore lost in 2000. If Obama is going to have any problems tomorrow night, it will be with those formally red and purple states. I don't need to get into it too deeply because all of you know, the Gore states plus New Hampshire plus either Virginia or Colorado will win the election. It seems as if early voting in Nevada has already brought Obama across the finish line. Early voting in Nevada has brought most of the people to the polls well before election day and they have commandingly selected Barack Obama to be the next President. There just are not enough late voters to destroy Obama's commanding lead.

brkramer

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Thursday October 30, 2008 · 5:50 PM PDT

2008/10/30 · 17:50

This is my first diary here, so take it easy on me. Last Tuesday night Barack Obama did a rally at Harbor Park in Norfolk, VA. My 16 year old younger daughter has been intensely interested in this election and really wanted to see Senator Obama. Norfolk is a two hour drive from Richmond and my wife and I discouraged the trip because 1)it was a school night 2)she would have to miss some field hockey practice and 3)it would be a long trip with no guarantee we would ever get in. My wife bowed out of the adventure, but my daughter and I started the two hour trip at around 5pm.

RSS

Today She Became a Citizen Again

PPP Colorado Snap Poll

Has Obama Already Won Ohio?

Maybe some good news from PPP

Hint of Significant Obama Bump

The Making of a Republican Disaster

Sleep Easier Tonight

Obama in Norfolk 10/28/08