It ain't about Trump... and that's good for Democrats...
There is a LOT of expectation-setting going on in the media, and most of it is “unwitting” in more ways than one. So forthwith: some notes that everyone should know, but which seem to slip out our collective consciousness at the drop of a tweet.
0. SERIOUSLY? DOES MULLER REALLY LOOK TO YOU LIKE A MAN WHO’S WRAPPING UP?
There have been an awful lot of episodes of GOPers explaining that the Special Counsel’s Investigation was just about completed.... starting prior to Christmas.
Of 2017.
There is a self-reinforcing cycle at work there: Republicans KNOW “there’s nothing to investigate” (ignore all those guilty pleas and intercepts, ergo each court filing that drops is further proof that “there’s nothing there” and every tidbit of rumor is picked up as proof that Mueller is packing it in. As for Democrats, most of what follows in this post is meant to dispel the folklore that Mueller is going to really ZOT Trump any day now, like a caveman in a Johnny Hart comic who insults the gods.
And don’t get started on the Pavlovian response the news media exhibit to the words “Final Report.”
90% chance there is no report this week.
The Mueller Report, if it ever happens, has taken on a mythological status among Republicans and Democrats and the news media, but it’s not even a grail quest, it’s just a snipe hunt.
Mueller will wrap when he wraps, report what he reports and then brace for his subpoenas.
Some cow tipping anyone?
1. MUELLER IS NOT GOING STAR (STARR?) CHAMBER ON TRUMP
Look, the Special Counsel’s investigation is charged with investigating RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE in the 2016 presidential election. He is NOT Bob Starr, off on some personal vendetta against Bill Clinton while on the side being paid a generous salary by a GOP law firm. The investigators have much bigger fish to fry: Mueller is after Putin Incorporated, not Trump & Sons.
Look for the upper end of the string: Mueller is targeting the organ-grinder, not the monkey.
Life-long Republican Bob Mueller, life-long Republican Rod Rosentein and their friends are just not interested in hanging Donald Trump out to dry. They’re not going to buy into our Democratic belief that the GOP is as dangerous as the GRU (it’s more dangerous but they’re not going to believe that, right?) They quite reasonably believe investigating Trump qua Trump to be the job of Congress. In fact, it’s against DOJ policy to 1) indict a sitting president and 2) cast aspersions on people they cannot indict. Come on, the media calls Mueller “by the book” so often that he should have an ISBN number printed on his spine. Ergo, a final report, whenever it REALLY drops, isn’t even going to mention Donald Trump. (90% chance again.)
Mueller’s Maulers have Lady Liberty’s Jersey side covered, they’re not carrying water for us Libs.
Yes, Republicans are going to start screaming “EXONERATION!” at the release of the report, and it’s lack of the Mighty ZOT coming down on Trump, but seriously, at this point Republicans are living in Bizarro World anyway, where Superman is a bad guy and Donald Trump is a patriot. We’ll cope with their lies when they metastasize.
2. AFTER MUELLER, TRUMP’S TROUBLES REALLY BEGIN
Repeat after me: “Mueller is properly keeping secrets. But we need light shed in dark corners.”
Whenever Mueller does finish, the findings of his investigation become fair game. Law enforcement investigations are supposed to be secret, duh. But the intel aspects that started the whole show are merely classified, not hidden in a cave in Petra. Democrats in the House of Reps can just start right in subpoenaing when Mueller hits “no 30". Now I’m sure Democrats are not in ANY WAY remembering that the House GOP began investigating Hillary Clinton over the Benghazi attack in 2012 then branched out into investigating her email server. (Hillary Clinton may have had the only damn Democratic server NOT successfully hacked by the GRU !) Democrats won’t be remembering how the GOP promised to continue investigations of President Hillary Clinton into 2018. This will not in ANY WAY be in the back of our minds.
So Democrats really get to take out the knife and fork beginning whenever Mueller is done. 100% chance of subpoenas...
Don’t forget, Trump is in so very much trouble with so many investigations. A few of the headliners:
A. The US District Attorney for the Southern District of New York (Geoffrey Berman, ad interim, a tax and fraud specialist) has already taken over certain key investigations against Trump. This Attorney’s Office is separate from the Mueller investigation, AND IS NOT INVESTIGATING TRUMP ABOUT RUSSIA. Even better, they are getting into Trump’s tangled web of financial foolery. Claiming that the Steele Dossier is “uncorroborated” and there’s “no collusion” doesn’t do any good against this investigation.
B. The NY AG is now known to be central to the investigations of Trump. Basically, if Trump cheated on his Foundation’s charity work (he did) that gets Allen Weisselberg talking (he is), who in turn leads to the personal finances of Trump, and there we are once again, doing a deep dive into Trump’s tax returns and more. Better yet, while Trump could conceivably find some excuse to fire Rosenstein, plus anyone else who won’t fire Mueller, and then fire Mueller and Mueller’s whole team... and then find another excuse to fire or freeze the US Attorney for SDNY... he STILL can do nothing to derail or even delay the NY AG’s investigation. The incoming NY AG has already promised she’ll investigate Trump.
C & D. Aaaand... Manafort is in trouble in not one but TWO different courtrooms in two different jurisdictions. Cohen is still dredging up more interesting tidbits – just a couple of weeks ago he gave us dirt on the Moscow Trump Tower and yesterday he was back in the news again regarding financial improprieties of the inauguration. Cohen’s turning into the star witless of the week, in fact he’s likely to upstage Trump and Kim. (40% chance)
E. Aaaaand (part II), let’s not forget David Faranthold speaking for investigative journalism: “I’m not dead yet! In fact I’m feeling much better!” The most damaging investigations of Trump are likely to be the financials, which got started as a result of Faranthold’s tenacious investigative reporting. 90% chance Faranthold grabs our eyeballs again, 100% chance someone in the media does.
3. IT’S ALL ABOUT 2020 NOW
The real prize is winning both 2018 and also 2020, in a repeat of 2006 / 2008. By dragging out their misery, the GOP is only digging their hole deeper.
2020 is a triple witching year: Presidential elections (wonder which party will have a leg up if the present investigations are still yielding salacious tidbits then?), Congressional elections (there’s a bonus mid-term election buried inside every presidential election!), and increased statehouse power, (drum roll please) all during a Census / Redistricting cycle.
On top of all that, the 2020 Senate map is much more favorable for Democrats than the 2018 map. Pickup possibilities include Colorado (Gardner), Maine (Collins ain’t doing herself a lot of favors with her wide-eyed innocent act), North Carolina (Tillis), and if Trump is still on the front burner and the fire is boiling nicely, then maybe even Alaska (Sullivan, not Murkowski), Arkansas (Cotton), Georgia (yes, it’s drifting realityward), Iowa (Joni Earnest... ‘nuff said), Kentucky (Moscow Mitch is NOT popular at home), South Carolina (Graham) and maybe even a few more. Paging Shaggy and Scooby, we have an all-you-can-eat buffet lined up.
I figure there’s an 80% chance Democrats retake the Senate next year.
I count about 10 potential pickups for Democrats if Trump is still rampaging in 2020, versus one write-off in Alabama but otherwise no real liabilities for Democrats. Michigan? New Hampshire? Virginia? I don’t think so! (20% chance of randomly losing one or another...)
2020 is the key to the 2020's.... (no truer pun was ever typed)... And as 2019 opens, GOP politicians are tying themselves to Trump like drowning sailors tying themselves to an anchor.
2019 is NOT about impeachment, it is about investigations. Investigations lead to facts, facts lead to headlines, and headlines move the needle and maybe even move the Overton Window back to “patriotism”.
Keeping Trump around as close to 2020 as possible is the strongest strategy. Let Pence and Moscow Mitch pick up the pieces when it’s too late anyway. (“Okay, now it’s the band’s turn to re-arrange the deck chairs!”)
And THAT is why Mueller nailing the GRU (but not the GOP) is actually to the benefit of the USA, democracy, and Democrats.
Look, if Mueller’s priority had been bringing out everything he could against Trump – leaking like the New York FBI Office used to leak to Fox-Pravda against Hillary Clinton – the results would be more than enough to be rid of Trump long ago. Yes, us Dems want Trump gone so bad it hurts... but keeping Trump around while Mueller cleans up the Russian connection helps Democrats politically for the long term.
Afraid the Dim One will start a war? Um, remember the list of people Mueller is working with: intel, the military, allied intel,... in short all the people Trump would need with him to so much as snail mail a firecracker to Tehran. 1% chance of war.
If Trump ever tries to start a war, we may finally get the answer to the previously rhetorical question: “What if they held a war and nobody came?”
4. THE PAYOFF
I now invite you to lean back and meditate upon any item you choose from the following list (this list will have to live without ordinals):
A long long time during which Republicans get laughed at for talking about “values”
A long long time during which Republicans get laughed at for talking about “patriotism”
Redistricting for the entire 2020s
Legislative control for the early 2020s
Filling empty federal court seats during the early 2020's
Justice Department lawsuits to force states back under the VRA pre-clearance rules (this section of the VRA still stands!)
Proper budgets for modern high security voting equipment (AKA “paper and pen”)
A president eager to let Putin know that two can play that game, and we’re better at it
(LATE NEWS: THREE CHEERS TO CYBER COMMAND for squelching the IRA on election day 2018!)
Control over yearly budgets, taxing, and spending
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact – this’ll take some ballot initiatives to get done, but don’t believe the people who say it cannot be done.
IN SUMMARY:
1. Mueller probably isn’t “wrapping it up” anytime soon.
2. When his final report (if any) drops, it probably won’t mention Trump. Mueller is protecting us from far worse things than Trump.
3. It’s all about 2020! Keep your eyes on the prize people!
