Haven't seen anybody diary this, so here's something to consider.
Is Mitt Romney's Mittmentum strategy actually leading to ticket splitting votes for congressional Democrats?
Here's the theory.
OFA will be getting every last Obama vote out to the polls. These are true Obama supporters. Supporters who know what Obama's been up against with the Republican obstructionism. These voters will be voting straight party line.
Hard to see how an Obama supporter would vote for any Republican running for House or Senate.
But, as the poll are showing, with the exception of the Nevada senate seat, we're seeing a lot of supporters of Romney who are also supporting Democratic senate candidates (and most likely House candidates too).
Why?
It appears there are numerous moderates, independents and even some Democratic voters who like Romney's economic message, believe him to be a true moderate or are just voting against Obama for "other" reasons, who may not be so thrilled with the idea of Romney working with a Tea Party House and Senate.
So, they split their vote with the idea of Romney checked by a Harry Reid majority Senate.
But here's where Romney's Mittmentum strategy may backfire against Romney.
These vote splitters would only vote for Democratic congressional candidates if they thought Romney was winning. Without the promotion of the Romney surge and the right-wing pollsters skewing the averages in Romney's favor, these vote splitters would actually vote for Republican congressional candidates as a check and balance against another Obama term.
But if these voters perceive Romney is winning, that's where Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi may get the assist.
This could make the difference in the Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, Arizona, Nevada and even the Nebraska senate races. This may even partly explain the recent surge we've seen in Bob Kerrey's poll numbers.
So, as we hear more and more about Romney "winning", we should stop and consider how this may move just the few % points needed in votes for Democratic senate candidates to allow Harry Reid to increase the size of his Democratic caucus.
