East PA in my remedial congressional map
We will see a new congressional map in PA soon, and we all wonder what it will look like. So I decided to draw a map, even before Stephen Wolf asked us to. My first goal was to achieve what the PA supreme court ordered, to create
“congressional districts composed of compact and contiguous territory; as nearly equal in population as practicable; and which do not divide any county, city, incorporated town, borough, township, or ward, except where necessary to ensure equality of population.”
My map splits only 14 counties, only three of which are split between three districts, no more than 17 splits in townships or wards are necessary to ensure equality of population. I tried to create a map that respects communities of interest, though as a German without any closer relationship to PA, that might have been missed a few times.
My map mirrors the competitive nature of the commonwealth, creating 6 Republican districts, 5 Democratic districts and 7 more or less competitive districts. I did not care about incumbents, especially with this many incumbents retiring.
CD 1
I drew two districts completely within Philadelphia county, including CD 1. It splits ward 45 with CD 2 and ward 40 with CD 7. CD 1 is a AA-majority district that is 55 % black in total population and 51,3 % black in VAP. Rep. Evans should live and run here. Of course it is overwhelmingly Democratic, Obama won it in 2008 90/9, its PVI 2012/2016 is D+40%. Safe Democratic.
CD 2
CD 2 is also completely within Philadelphia county, it is majority minority being 38 % non-hispanic white in total population and 42 % non-hispanic white in VAP. Both Reps. Brady and Boyle live here, but Rep. Brady is retiring, so probably Rep. Boyle would run here. Obama won it in 2008 77/23, its PVI 2012/2016 is D+27 %. Safe Democratic.
CD 3
CD 3 includes Erie, Crawford, Mercer, Lawrence and part of Beaver counties. One municipality in Beaver county would have to be split between CD 3 and CD 18, but I havent specified which one. All districts outside of Philly are overwhelmingly white, so I won’t specify anymore. Rep. Kelly lives in Butler county, so he does’t live in this district, but he still might run here instead of CD 5 against Rep. Thompson. Obama won this district in 2008 51,5/47,2, its PVI 2012/2016 is R+7. Competitive, with a Republican lean.
CD 4
CD 4 includes Cambria, Blair, Huntingdon, Centre, Clinton, Fulton, Mifflin, Juniata, Perry and part of Bedford, Franklin and Clearfield counties. I split Antrim Township in Franklin county but didn’t specify which municipalities to split in Bedford and Clearfield county. Rep. Shuster from Altoona is retiring, so this district would be open. I first drew a more competitive district that included Elk and Indiana counties instead of Fulton, MIfflin, Juniata, Perry, Bedford, Franklin and parts of Huntingdon counties. But that made CD 5 and CD 10 look messy, so I drew those three districts cleaner, which took any competitiveness out of this district. Cambria doesn’t necessarily fits into this district, but to keep the districts compact, there was no way to go. McCain won it in 2008 55,5/43,1, its PVI 2012/2016 is R+15,5%. Safe Republican.
CD 5
CD 5 includes Butler, Armstrong, Indiana, Venango, Clarion, Jefferson, Forest, Elk, Cameron, Warren, McKean, Potter and parts of Clearfield and Tioga counties. I didn’t specify which municipalities to split in Clearfield and Tioga counties for population equality. Rep. Thompson lives in Venango county and should run here, though Rep. Kelly lives in this district as well. McCain won it 2008 59/40, its PVI 2012/2016 is R+51,5%. Safe Republican.
CD 6
CD 6 includes most of Chester county and parts of Berks county, including Reading. It splits Tredyffrin township with CD 7 and would have to split a municipality with CD 17 in Berks county as well that I didn’t yet specify. Rep. Costello lives in this district and should run here. Obama won it in 2008 56/43, its PVI 2012/2016 is D+4%. Competitive, with a slight Democratic lean.
CD 7
CD 7 includes Delaware county and parts of Philadelphia, Montgomery and Chester counties, though only small slices of the latter two. It splits ward 40 with CD 2, Tredyffrin township with CD 6 and Upper Merion township with CD 13. Rep. Meehan is retiring, so this district will be open. Obama won it in 2008 61/38, its PVI 2012/2016 is D+9%. Safe Democratic except for wave elections.
CD 8
CD 8 includes Bucks county and parts of Montgomery county, splitting Hatfield township with CD 13. Rep. Fitzpatrick lives here and should run here. Obama won it 54/45, its PVI 2012/2016 is R+1,7%. Competitive, maybe a slight Republican lean.
CD 9
CD 9 includes Cumberland, Adams and part of York and Franklin county. It splits Antrim township with CD 4 and would have to split an unspecified municipality in York county with CD 16. Rep. Perry doesn’t live in this district anymore, as he lives in Harrisburg, which is in CD 17. He might still run in this district, as it is way more Republican and resembles his current district way more. McCain won it 60/39, its PVI 2012/2016 is R+15,6%. Safe Republican.
CD 10
CD 10 includes Pike, Wayne, Susquehanna, Wyoming, Bradford, Sullivan, Lycoming, Columbia, Montour, Northumberland, Union and parts of Tioga and Schuykill counties. I didn't specify which parts of Tioga and Schuykill to split for population equality. Rep. Marino lives in this district and should run here. McCain won it 57/41,5, its PVI 2012/2016 is R+20%. Safe Republican.
CD 11
CD 11 includes Luzerne, Lackawanna, Monroe and very small parts of Carbon county. Only 491 people are needed after combining the other three counties, I didn’t specify which municipality to split here. Reps. Cartwright and Barletta live in this district, but Barletta is running for the senate. Obama won this district 57,6/41,4 in 2008, but its PVI 2012/2016 is R+2%. Competitive, but still a Democratic lean.
CD 12
CD 12 includes parts of Allegheny and Westmoreland counties, esp. the parts of Allegheny county to the east and south of Pittsburgh and the adjacent parts of Westmoreland county. It splits the city of Baldwin with CD 14 and Sewickley township with CD 18. Rep. Rothfus lives in this district, but it is way more competitive than his old district. Obama won it in 2008 52/47, its PVI is D+0,3%. Competitive, but with a slight Democratic lean.
CD 13
CD 13 consists of (most) parts of Montgomery county. No Rep. lives in this district, given that Montgomery was sliced and split up between multiple districts. Obama won it in 2008 60,6/38,6, its PVI 2012/2016 is D+7,3%. Safe Democratic unless there is a wave.
CD 14
CD 14 consist of parts of Allegheny county, especially Pittsburgh and the other parts of Allegheny county to the North and West of Pittsburgh. It splits the city of Baldwin with CD 12. Rep. Doyle lives here and should run here. Obama won it in 2008 59/40, its PVI 2012/2016 is D+9,6%. Safe Democratic unless there is a wave.
CD 15
CD 15 includes Lehigh, Northampton and (most) parts of Carbon county. Rep. Dent is retiring, so this destrict is open. Obama won it in 2008 56/43, but it has a PVI 2012/2016 of R+7%. Competitive, but a slight Republican lean.
CD 16
CD 16 includes Lancaster and part of York county. I decided to include the city of York to this district, which is probably a more partisan decision, as it carves out the most Democratic part of York county to go with the more competitive CD 16. Rep. Smucker lives and would run here. It’s still pretty Republican, McCain won it 53,7/45,3, its PVI is R+11%. Safe Republican unless in case of a wave.
CD 17
CD 17 includes Dauphin, Lebanon and part of Schuykill, Berks and Carbon counties. Rep. Perry lives in this district, but he would probably run in the way more Republican CD 9. This is my Tim-Holden-comeback district, as it resembles his former district. McCain won it 50,3/48,5 in 2008, its PVI 2012/2016 is R+6,4%. Competitive, but with a Republican lean.
CD 18
CD 18 includes Washington, Greene, Fayette, Somerset and part of Beaver, Westmoreland and Bedford counties. It splits Sewickley township with CD 12, I didn’t specify which municipalities to split in Beaver and Bedford counties. By including Somerset and Bedford county, any competitiveness of the district is gone, even if Conor Lamb wins the special election. Maybe he would run in CD 12 instead, given that he grew up in Mt. Lebanon. McCain won this district 54,5/44,3 in 2008, its PVI 2012/2016 is R+15%. Safe Republican.
I included pictures for the Western and Eastern half of the map and a closeup for the Philly suburbs and singular pics of the urban districts CD 1, 2, 12 and 14. What do you think of this map?
