Survey USA McCain ahead 49-45 in Ohio

safik

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Monday September 15, 2008 · 1:40 PM PDT

2008/09/15 · 13:40

Survey USA released a new poll of Ohio showing McCain with a 49-45 lead.

http://www.surveyusa.com/...

Poring over the internals here are some thoughts:

Other than it being a weekend poll, there aren't any weird results. There's a +9 Dem party advantage, sounds about right. Obama's getting 90% of the AA vote, he's down 16 among white voters which both sound about right.

The electorate in Ohio has changed enough that all Obama needs to do is equal what Kerry did among Democrats and he'll win. Unfortunately, His lead among Dems is only 77-19, while Kerry won 90-9.

There is one bit of good news. Obama is getting slaughtered among leaners. 80% of voters say there mind is made up and Obama leads 49-48 among them. Among voters who say they could change there mind, he trails 55-31.

Bottom line, I think we're behind but as the leaner number suggests, its still a winnable race.

Video of Rachel Maddow's smackdown of Buchanan

safik

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Thursday July 31, 2008 · 1:04 PM PDT

2008/07/31 · 13:04

I know MSNBC wasn't putting up the video for this last night and I haven't check the site today so I don't know if they've put it up yet. Also, I don't know if this has been posted already, but I haven't seen a diary for it, but here's the video:

http://www.youtube.com/...

Watching Buchanan stutter is quite funny, butI think what's really interesting is the contrast between a conservatives Smerconish and a hatchet man Buchanan.

New PA Time Poll Hillary 49, Obama 41

safik

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Thursday April 10, 2008 · 10:25 AM PDT

2008/04/10 · 10:25

So a new Time PA poll Hillary up 49-41.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

But I think this poll has some questionable methodology. For one it adds leaners, which some polls do and some don't. Without leaners, Hillary leads 44-38. African-Americans account for 16% of the vote, which I think is a solid estimate.

But 18-29 year olds only account for 9% of the vote and 18-24 year olds only account for 2% of the vote. I think its safe to say that if college students account for 2-3% of the total vote Obama will lose. Plus 65& older account for 24% of the vote.

My question is what do they base this on? In the 04 race, 65& above accounted for 22% of the vote, while 18-29 account for 21%. Sure, that's GE numbers while this is a primary, but young people are more likely to be democrats. So, maybe older people will account for a greater percentage, but an almost 3:1 margin, I don't know about that.

What Obama should say via VP

safik

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Saturday March 08, 2008 · 5:20 PM PST

2008/03/08 · 17:20

This is an issue that's gotten a lot of attention recently
as both Clintons have spoken about it in as many days.

I think the next time he's asked this, he should say something to the effect of: "Based on her recent comments it sounds like she'd rather be on the ticket with John McCain, so maybe you should ask him this question instead."

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