Earlier today, kos
posted about the
latest SurveryUSA 50-State approval ratings for governors. In this diary I present some alternate rankings that take other factors into account, namely
state population and
2004 presidential election numbers.
The purpose of this exercise is to shed additional light on what these poll numbers mean to potential
2008 presidential candidates. Obviously there are many more factors that will affect these people's chances (money, broadcast charisma, base appeal, national issues, media reception, etc.), and there's nothing scientific about my calculations. So I simply offer these numbers for what they're worth, and leave it to others to suggest what, if anything, we learn from them.
I will just say that a few names pop out that are not often part of the 2008 chatter...
Brad Henry (D-OK)
Janet Napolitano (D-AZ)
Michael Easley (D-NC)
tables after the break...
1. net approval * population
This is a simple weighting by population
1 |
3,196,476 |
Bush, Jeb |
R-FL |
2 |
2,878,700 |
Warner, Mark |
D-VA |
3 |
2,009,283 |
Rell, Jodi |
R-CT |
4 |
1,767,014 |
Codey, Richard |
D-NJ |
5 |
1,744,415 |
Napolitano, Janet |
D-AZ |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
11 |
682,714 |
Bredesen, Phil |
D-TN |
13 |
614,882 |
Huckabee, Mike |
R-AR |
15 |
556,002 |
Vilsack, Tom |
D-IA |
16 |
527,523 |
Richardson, Bill |
D-NM |
20 |
369,900 |
Schweitzer, Brian |
D-MT |
25 |
323,669 |
Barbour, Haley |
R-MS |
30 |
190,473 |
Romney, Mitt |
R-MA |
43 |
(1,151,407) |
Pataki, George |
R-NY |
50 |
(9,484,061) |
Schwarzenegger, Arnold |
R-CA |
2. net approval * normalized population [1.0-10.0]
Population matters, but voters don't give a candidate from Texas 34 times the weight of a candidate from Vermont. So here I normalize the state population from 1.0 to 10.0 (an arbitrary choice).
1 |
112.30 |
Warner, Mark |
D-VA |
2 |
105.32 |
Rell, Jodi |
R-CT |
3 |
103.53 |
Bush, Jeb |
R-FL |
4 |
76.51 |
Napolitano, Janet |
D-AZ |
5 |
74.92 |
Huntsman, Jon |
R-UT |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
14 |
45.52 |
Schweitzer, Brian |
D-MT |
15 |
39.36 |
Richardson, Bill |
D-NM |
19 |
36.52 |
Huckabee, Mike |
R-AR |
24 |
31.46 |
Vilsack, Tom |
D-IA |
25 |
28.81 |
Bredesen, Phil |
D-TN |
27 |
19.13 |
Barbour, Haley |
R-MS |
31 |
7.74 |
Romney, Mitt |
R-MA |
42 |
-36.25 |
Pataki, George |
R-NY |
50 |
-280.00 |
Schwarzenegger, Arnold |
R-CA |
3. net approval relative to 2004
This table takes the net approval ratings and handicaps them with the Bush/Kerry differential from the 2004 presidential election. For example, Dave Freudenthal (D-WY) has a net approval of +35 in a state that Kerry lost by 39.79 points, thus we get 74.79.
1 |
74.79 |
Freudenthal, Dave |
D-WY |
2 |
69.36 |
Rell, Jodi |
R-CT |
3 |
63.14 |
Henry, Brad |
D-OK |
4 |
61.51 |
Schweitzer, Brian |
D-MT |
5 |
58.14 |
Douglas, Jim |
R-VT |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
8 |
48.20 |
Warner, Mark |
D-VA |
15 |
29.79 |
Richardson, Bill |
D-NM |
16 |
28.16 |
Romney, Mitt |
R-MA |
18 |
26.27 |
Bredesen, Phil |
D-TN |
20 |
19.67 |
Vilsack, Tom |
D-IA |
21 |
14.99 |
Bush, Jeb |
R-FL |
24 |
13.24 |
Huckabee, Mike |
R-AR |
25 |
12.29 |
Pataki, George |
R-NY |
34 |
-7.69 |
Barbour, Haley |
R-MS |
39 |
-18.05 |
Schwarzenegger, Arnold |
R-CA |
4. net approval relative to 2004 * population
The same numbers as before, but weighted by state population.
1 |
3,468,834 |
Warner, Mark |
D-VA |
2 |
2,450,211 |
Easley, Michael |
D-NC |
3 |
2,395,758 |
Bush, Jeb |
R-FL |
4 |
2,362,100 |
Rell, Jodi |
R-CT |
5 |
2,358,465 |
Pataki, George |
R-NY |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
8 |
1,787,906 |
Romney, Mitt |
R-MA |
9 |
1,494,575 |
Bredesen, Phil |
D-TN |
14 |
575,608 |
Vilsack, Tom |
D-IA |
15 |
554,940 |
Schweitzer, Brian |
D-MT |
17 |
541,894 |
Richardson, Bill |
D-NM |
24 |
353,958 |
Huckabee, Mike |
R-AR |
33 |
(207,418) |
Barbour, Haley |
R-MS |
49 |
(6,113,832) |
Schwarzenegger, Arnold |
R-CA |
5. net approval relative to 2004 * normalized population [1.0-10.0]
The same numbers as before, but weighted by state normalized population (again using 1.0 to 10.0).
1 |
135.32 |
Warner, Mark |
D-VA |
2 |
123.82 |
Rell, Jodi |
R-CT |
3 |
113.48 |
Henry, Brad |
D-OK |
4 |
100.07 |
Napolitano, Janet |
D-AZ |
5 |
92.45 |
Easley, Michael |
D-NC |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
6 |
77.59 |
Bush, Jeb |
R-FL |
9 |
74.25 |
Pataki, George |
R-NY |
10 |
72.62 |
Romney, Mitt |
R-MA |
12 |
68.28 |
Schweitzer, Brian |
D-MT |
13 |
63.07 |
Bredesen, Phil |
D-TN |
19 |
40.44 |
Richardson, Bill |
D-NM |
22 |
32.57 |
Vilsack, Tom |
D-IA |
25 |
21.02 |
Huckabee, Mike |
R-AR |
33 |
-12.26 |
Barbour, Haley |
R-MS |
49 |
-180.50 |
Schwarzenegger, Arnold |
R-CA |
~END~