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The Danger Called Howard Dean
JUMP!
Florida has 25 Congressional Seats, of which, 18 are (or were!) red and 7 are blue. This is in a state that is more blue than red. The most important thing I found in my research is that we need to hold that state house and senate in 2010 so that this ridiculous gerrymandering can abate somewhat. Well, here we go!
FL-1 - The Republican portion of the Panhandle, including Pensacola. The reddie incumbent, Jeff Miller, won this seat with 77% of the vote, a mere 5% better than W. Our guy is Joe Roberts, a conservative Democrat with 25 years of military duty, a Union organizer, and a Christian Missionary. The best thing I can contribute to Joe's campaign is the pledge that, in a thousand years, I would never ever choose to have this guy represent me in Congress, so he can say he's been publicly dissed by a member of the scary big orange club. But, this year, the worst Democrat is better than the best Republican, and his opponent is hardly that. From everything I've seen, Jeff Miller is a red rubberstamp (best quote is on Huffington "affable but hapless GOP lapdog"). Roberts is running a good grassroots campaign, but without more money, he's going to have a hard time unseating an incumbent... even an affable but hapless one.
FL-1: Safe Red
FL-2 - The Democratic portion of the Panhandle, including part of Tallahassee and Panama City. Our incumbent, Allen Boyd, won this seat with 62% of the vote. Being the Panhandle, W did carry 54%, so you'd figure the reddies have their eye on this one. But they don't. The reddies are not fielding an opponent, manking this...
FL-2: Safe Blue
FL-3 - North central portion of the state including parts of Jacksonville, Orlando and Gainesville. This is a majority minority district with Blacks making up 49%, Hispanics, 8% and Whites, 38%. Our incumbent, Corrine Brown ran unopposed last time, and she's running unopposed this time.
FL-3: Safe Blue
FL-4 - Northern portion of the state including Jackson and a sliver of Tallahassee. It looks like Fl-4 is the White/Republican part of FL-3. The reddie incumbent, Ander Crenshaw, ran unopposed last time, but Bush carried 67%, so we're figuring a pretty red district. Our guy is Bob Harms, a small business owner and Little League coach. Bob's COH is very low and his odds of doing much is pretty low too.
FL-4: Safe Red.
FL-5 - Northwestern coast includint Pasco and Hernando counties. The reddie incumbent, Ginny Brown-Waite won this one with 66% of the vote, or 8% better than Bush. Our guy is John Russell. Independents are breaking for Russell 3:2, but that's not enough to carry this district. As of 9/17, he was down by 16 and I don't think the race is going to tighten by that much.
FL-5: Safe Red.
FL-6 - North central portions of the state including parts of Jacksonville and Gainesfille. Another White portion of FL-3. We need to be in control when redistricting happens, because this is a shonda. The reddie incumbent, Cliff Stearns, won this one with 64%. Our guy is Dave Bruderly, a civil and environmental engineer with, as far as I can ascertain, service to the United States in the Merchant Marines, Coast Guard and Navy. This guy is just full of good ideas, and would make a superlative representative, but I don't think his COH is sufficient to get the word out.
FL-6: Safe Red.
FL-7 - Northern coastal region including Daytona Beach. The reddie incumbent ran unopposed last time, but Bush carried 57% of the vote here. Our guy is John Chagnon, a Marine Corps vet and high school economics teacher. I like this guy, and I like his ideas, but his website still has the banner "My Website Website" and, according to flapolitics.blogspot, there's no contact information for the guy and his phones go unanswered.
FL-7: Safe Red.
FL-8 - Northern central portion of the state including most of Orlando. The reddie incumbent, Ric Keller, got 61% last time. Keller is the most conservative member of the Florida delegation. And he's got Abramoff problems. In the meantime, our guy is Charlie Stuart, a professional speaker, and a member of a prominent Florida family. His brother was a City Councilman and State Senator. Charlie's been getting a lot of attention, and recently, garnered the support from several prominent Republicans. Unfortunately, there's a 6:1 ratio on COH, and while Keller is more vulnerable than a lot of other Florida reddies, that's a pretty tall hill to climb.
FL-8: Safe Red.
FL-9 - Central Western seaboard including several Tampa suburbs. The reddie incumbent, Michael Bilirakis, ran unopposed last time, while Bush picked up 57%. Fortunately, Bilirakis is retiring. Unfortunately, the Republican happens to be named Gus Michael Bilirakis. So, the reddies are hoping to pass this seat from father to son. Our gal is Phyllis Busansky, a Hillsborough County Commissioner from 1988 to 1996. Busansky is running a smart race and even against this blatant nepotism the latest poll has her up 61-32. Not bad.
FL-9: We're gonna win this one.
FL-10 - St Petersburg. The reddie incumbent, Bill Young, won this seat last time with 69% of the vote, although Kerry got 48%, so it's not as red as all that. Our gal is Samm Simpson, and if there was ever a candidate that the Kossacks could get behind, it's the woman who writes, produces and hosts a local television series called "Media is Propaganda", which has been nominated for an Access Pinellas Award. The district breaks down as 167k red, 152k blue and 101k independents. She is pro-peace, pro-veteran, pro-balanced-budget, pro-health-care, pro-Union and pro-choice. She also believes in three equal branches of government with strong checks and balances. She has raised next to no money and is getting next to no media attention and the DCCC doesn't seem to care much about this either. As a matter of trivia, she is the first candidate I have actually gone to the MySpace page of.
FL-10: The odds are that this seat is going to stay red, as purple as the district is, and we missed an opportunity to put a lefty in the House.
FL-11 - Tampa and parts of St Petes. This is a very Democratic district, and our guy, Jim Davis, is running for governor. Our gal is Kathy Castor, and, for a non-incumbent, her name recognition is as good as it gets. The reddie for this seat is Eddie Adams, the grandson of a Baptist preacher who is all about conservative family values. He has been in the field of architecture for over 15 years with 25 years in health care and will have the honor of getting soundly trounced by a fairly liberal Democratic woman.
FL-11: Oh, so Blue.
FL-12 - Central western seaboard including Hillsborough and Polk counties. The reddie, Adam Putnam, won last time with 65%. He's gonna get 100% this time as we're not running anyone against him.
FL-12: Safe Red.
FL-13 - Sarasota. This is Katherine Harris' district, but there's a nice jazz scene, so it's not as bad as it could be. With Katiepoo running for Senate, this becomes an open seat with a pink tinge as Bush carried the district with 56%. Since this is an open seat, I will begin by talking about our gal, Christine Jennings. Christine started out as a bank teller and worked her way up to being the president of the bank. She went on to become the Preident, CEO and Chariman of the Board and Director of Sarasota Bank. She serves as President or Member of the Board of things like the Sarasota Film Festival, the Comunnity AIDS Network, Big Brothers/Big Sisters, the Sarasota Ballet, the Florida West Coast Symphony and the Mental Health Association of Sarasota County. And More. A Lot More. I don't know how she has time to run for Congress, but, for Heaven's Sake, she probably knows every man, woman and child in the District. Her opponent, Vernon Buchanan, has raised just a phenomenal amount of money. Just phenomenal. He owns a car dealership and he has pumped a lot of his own money into the game such that, at this time, he has collected more than any other congressional candidate in Florida (in fact, there are no congressional candidates in California with more contributions than this guy). It's not helping him. Right now, Jennings is up by 12. Of course, he has the money for all the attack ads in the world, but geez, against Ms. Big Brothers, come on.
FL-13: I smell a flipped seat here. Baaaa-LLLUUUUUEEE, Baby!
FL-14 - Southwestern seaboard including Fort Myers and Naples. This is a very red district, and Connie Mach ain't goin nowhere. Still, I signed on for this, so... Our guy is Robert Neeld, an accountant and member of various civic organizations. He lost to Mack 68-32 two years ago. I don't see that much has changed, so, like I said, Connie Mack ain't goin nowhere.
FL-14: Safe Red.
FL-15 - Central Eastern seaboard, mostly suburban. The reddie incumbent, Dave Weldon, walked away with 65% of the vote last time. Our guy is Dr. Bob Bowman, Combat Veteran for Congress (specifically a Lieutenant Colonel in the Air Force). Oh. And he used to be the Presiding Archbishpo of the United Catholic Church (UCC). Hear that JamesB3? This guy is about as pro-gay as it gets. He has a Ph.D. in Aeronautics and Nuclear Engineering. And he is part of a national campaign to Take Back America by electing a Citizens' Congress pledged to serve the people. He believes in a doctor-run single-payer national health program, and as for the rest, well, his progressive bona fides are pretty dang impressive. Of course, he flew 101 combat missions in Vietnam, winning six Air Medals, and directed the Star Wars program under Presidents Ford and Carter, so the military and space buffs gotta love him too. I wish his money was better, because if he had enough money to get his message out, he'd win hands down. Still, this guy has such cross-over appeal, that I am not ruling anything out.
FL-15: Who knows?
FL-16 - South central portion of the state including Port St Lucie. The incumbent, Mark Foley, just went out in a blaze of glory, so this is an open seat. In 2004, Bush carried the day with 55% to Kerry's 45%, so that's where we're starting. Our guy is Tim Mahoney who, before all this went down (as it were), had raised nearly a million bucks on his own. Now, with Foley's name on the ballot, I just don't see how the reddies retain the seat. I just don't see it. Other people do and they think the seat is going to stay red. I don't. And I'm calling it.
FL-16: Blue, at least for the next two years.
FL-17 - Southeastern portion of the state including parts of Miami and Hollywood, probably very Jewish, and insanely Democratic. Our incumbent, Kendrick Meek, ran unopposed last time and is running unopposed this time, too.
FL-17: Safe Blue.
FL-18 - Southeastern tip of the state including most of Miami and all of the Keys. The reddie incumbent, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen was elected with 65% of the vote, although Kerry carried 45%. Our guy is Big Dave Patlak, as 25 year veteran of the Coast Guard. It's not often that I see Ab Mikva referenced in a website for a Florida congressional candidate, but I liked Ab and anyone who worked to get him and George McGovern and Jimmy Carter elected is ok by me. Our guy does food drives and builds homes for the homeless and visits disabled vets. Seems a lot more in keeping with what Jesus said than some reddies who bathe themselves in the cross. This election is going to turn on the Cuban community, as some of Bush's policies are very iffy as to whether it hurts Cubans or Americans. Again, Dave doesn't have the dollars, but he's getting press, so he'll at least make a dent. Still....
FL-18: Safe Red.
FL-19 - South central portion of the state, just west of the seaboard, including Boca Raton and Margate. Our guy, Robert Wexler, ran unopposed last time, but Kerry got 66% of the vote, so figure this for a deep blue district. Blue enough that there's no red candidate.
FL-19: Safe Blue
FL-20 - Southeastern Seaboard including Sunrise, Hollywood and parts of Ft Lauderdale. Our incumbent, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, won this one with 70%, beating Kerry by 7. The reddies aren't running anyone here either.
FL-20: Safe Blue.
FL-21 - Southeastern portion of the state including most of Hialeah. The reddie incumbent, Lincoln Diaz-Balart won this district with 73% of the vote while Kerry carried 43%. Both Lincoln Diaz-Balart and his brother Mario, are in Congress in Florida. My favorite part of the Wikipedia page is where they say he is a "former" nephew of Fidel Castro. I wish I could write off certain members of my family for political purposes. Our guy is Frank Gonzalez, a Cuban-American who won chess championships as a kid. Interestingly, his first run for Congress was as a Libertarian in my own IL-5. He next ran as a Libertarian in FL-21 where he garnered an astounding 27.2% of the vote, beating the Democrat in the race. Now he's one of ours. A staunch Civil Libertarian Democrat. We could do worse in this race than to have a Cuban-American with name recognition in the district. This district is gonna stay red, but I think Gonzalez is gonna keep Lincoln in his district, spending his money and working for it for a change...
FL-21: Red.
FL-22 - Southeastern seaboard including parts of Ft Lauderdale, Boca Raton and the Palm Beaches. This is a Democratic district, being largely Jewish, but has a Republican representative. Clay Shaw, the reddie, carried 63% of the vote last time around, whereas Kerry carried 51%. This is also the area that had the screwed up ballots which gave us W in the first place. I have been saying since the beginning of this cycle that it's a sin against nature that this district is red, and that Ron Klein was our best bet to take down Shaw. This is one of the wealthiest districts in the United States, and both candidates have raised extraordinary amounts of money, largely keeping parity both in terms of cash raised and spent. The ad war has been going on since July or August and is going to continue till the bitter end. One thing's for sure. Win or lose, neither candidate is going to come out of this with a huge warchest. As of 9/28, Klein was up by 1. Maybe Foley will help push that up a bit, but this is gonna be mega-close.
FL-22: Make popcorn and plan to stay up late on Election Night, but when it's all said and done, this one's gonna be Blue.
FL-23 - Southeastern portin of the state just west of the waterfront, including parts of Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. Our guy, Alcee Hastings, was unopposed last time around, but Kerry had 78%, so you can figure this is a pretty dang blue area. And another place that the reddies aren't contesting.
FL-23: Safe Blue.
FL-24 - Northeastern coast including the suburbs of Orlando. The reddie, Tom Feeney, ran unopposed last time, but Bush got 56%. Our guy, Clint Curtis, a computer programmer with a background in law enforcement. He is a life-long Republican turned Democrat to take Feeney down. This is an interesting race, and it seems to be getting local media. Our guy has very little money and is trying to make this race about Feeney and corruption, since, evidently, and according to Curtis, Feeney asked him to write a program that would rig the votes in electronic voting machines without being detected. Feeney claims bitter grapes by an angry ex-employee. If you want election-reform front and center, this is the race you want to throw your $20 into. Clint Curtis: very loud very determined whistle-blower. Feeney is simply not going to come out of this unscathed, and the more money Curtis has to yell from the rooftops, the more injured Feeney's going to get.
FL-24: Very very likely red but with a hobbled incumbent
FL-25 - Southwestern tip of state including the Everglades. The reddie incumbent, Mario Diaz-Barlart, ran unopposed last time, but Kerry got 44%. Our guy is Michael Calderin, a DFA-endorsed Cuban-American computer programmer. calderin is a good candidate, a bright and articulate guy, and he's young, very young. He doesn't have a lot of money and he doesn't have a lot of name recognition, and he's not going to win this one. But if he can make a strong showing, the 60% of the district that is not Republican will have a good introduction to the guy, and he can come back next time around with more money and more name recognition. And, given that it's only a 40% Republican district, it's possible that this guy could pull it off, but I think it's a lot more likely that he's going to make this a 57-43 race this time lining up a much tighter race next time that really can go either way.
FL-25: Red. This time.