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And before we take the jump, I just wanted to remind you again that you can contribute to candidates on this project by hitting this
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And, because I get grief about not pimping my other series, here are the stories in The Basics Series...
New Republican Sales Pitch
DLC Democrats Sales Pitch
City on a Hill
The Napoleonic Strategies of the GOP
The Danger Called Howard Dean
JUMP!
There are 18 Congressional Districts in Ohio, of which 11 were held by Republicans and 7 by Democrats at the beginning of this Congressional Session. Since then, four seats have become open.
OH-1 - Western Cincinnati and suburbs. The red incumbent, Steve Chabot, won this one last time with 60% of the vote, but the Bush/Kerry race went 50/49 in this district. Our guy is John Cranley, the top vote getter in his 2005 City Council re-election campaign. He os a visiting professor in the University of Cincinnati Law School and co-director of the Urban Justice Institute and the Ohio Innocence Project. He is a graduate of Harvard Law School and holds a Masters Degree in Theological Studies from Harvard Divinity School, quite a plus in this district. This is a rematch of 2000 when he lost 53/45 despite being outspent $1.1M v $465k. This time around, he has more name recognition, an elected office under his belt, and nearly equal fund-raising. A few months ago, this race was tied at 45 apiece, but, a more recent poll gives the reddie a 49-40 lead. Still, the this race has generated enough attention that big names on both sides are pimping for their guy. Big names like Dick Cheney and Bill Clinton, plus lots of others.
OH-1: This one is closer than it looks, and the big guys know it.
OH-2 - The infamous second district is Eastern Cincinnati and suburbs. The red incumbent, Jean Schmidt (boo!, hiss!), won this one over Paul Hackett (cheeeeer!) in an insanely close election , but the election before was 72r/28d, and Bush trounced Kerry here 64/26. Our gal is Dr. Vic Wulsin, a doctor who has practiced medicine in both rural and urban settings in the District. Truth to tell, though, as great as Vic is, and she is, this is all about Jean Schmidt, the woman who came out right away, almost as soon as she assumed her seat in Congress, and called John Murtha a coward. Murtha stumped for Wulsin last weekend. But it wasn't personal. Uh-huh. Wulsin will likely win this seat (she's up by 3 now), but she'll have a fight in '08 as this really is a dark red district.
OH-2: Blue Pickup.
OH-3 - A Southwestern district including much of Dayton. The red incumbent here, Michael Turner, won his seat with 62% of the vote, or 8 better than W. Our guy is Dick Chema, although ActBlue has this as an uncontested race. Chema is a great candidate. A Navy Veteran with a Purple Heart in the Battle of the Bulge, Chema served twelve years, attaining the rank of Commander (equivalent to a Lieutenant Colonel, for those of you not in the know), where he became the Chief Prosecutor and the Navy's resident expert of foreign criminal jurisdiction. He has a history of battling sexual harassment (in the Tailhook scandal), and is considered an anti-terrorism expert. He went from the Navy to the US Attorney's Office where he became chief of the criminal division. Chema didn't have a lot of time to get running, having won as special primary on September 19th. Still, Chema is running a spirited campaign, raising $61k in a single week, and is getting his name and bio known. Of all the years he could make a run of it, he chose a good year. With the Ohio Republican party tanking and the Republicans pulling away from DeWine, down-ticket Democratic races are going to get a boost. I still don't think he'll have enough time or money to take Turner down, but he's gonna make it close, and he'll be a player next time around. And 2008 starts on 11/8.
OH-3: Red. For now.
OH-4 - West-Central part of the state including Lima and Findlay. The red incumbent, Michael Oxley, won this seat with 59% of the vote, or 6 less than W. But Oxley is retiring, leaving this an open seat. We're running Rick Siferd, who volunteered to be in the Army during Vietnam, then came back state-side to serve as a Drill Sergeant until his discharge in 1969. He came back home to practice law, and, in 1980 was elected the City of Lima's Law Director. He left that position for private practice, and is a partner in a small firm. The reddies are running Jim Jordan, a two-term State Senator, pro-life, anti-welfare, "traditional American values". Jordan burst out of the gate raising more than a million bucks from donors like WalMart. In the meantime, Siferd has raised about 76k. We chose the wrong guy for this race. We should have switched Chema and Siferd, because Chema would have cleaned Jordan's clock. This is a seat we gave to a rightwing yahoo that we didn't have to.
OH-4: Red. Way too red. Dammit.
OH-5 - The Northwest corner of the state including Bowling Green. This is a very rural district, and the red incumbent here, Paul Gillmor, won this seat with 67% of the vote, or 6 better than W. Our gal is Robin Weirauch, founder of an animal shelter, and program coordinator for the Humane Society, Associate Director of the Center for Regional Development at Bowling Green State University, and is currently a Special Advocate protecting the interests of children involved in the legal system. This is a rematch from 2004, and I can't see it being appreciably different.
OH-5: Safe Red.
OH-6 - The Southeast portion of the state including Athens. Our incumbent, and soon-to-be-governor, Ted Strickland, ran unopposed last time, but Bush carried the district 50/49. This is an open seat this time, and both parties have put up their heavyweights. Our guy, Charlie Wilson, is a State Senator, and their guy, Chuck Blasdel, is the Speaker of the State House. Our guy made a bonehead mistake in the primary, not qualifying for the primary ballot, forced him to mount an incredibly successful write-in campaign that raised both name recognition and dollars across the District. Meanwhile, the reddies made this their #1 targeted open seat in the country. Too bad they're gonna lose. On 9/29, Wilson was up by 13.
OH-6: Ours, baby!
OH-7 - Central portion of the state including Springfield and parts of Columbus. The red incumbent, Dave Hobson, won this with 65% of the vote, or 8 points better than W. Our guy is Bill Conner, who served 20 years in the Air Force, enlisting as a Private and retiring as a Major, having worked primarily in various areas of Military Intelligence. After his retirement, he went into software development for various Defense contractors. I think that the DNC should take the candidates and give them a weekend training in what to do to run the strongest possible campaign instead of just flailing out there. Here's a guy who spent 20 years in the Air Force... he should be coming across as stong and commanding, and he's not being taken seriously. Of course, how seriously are you going to treat a guy using gmail for his campaign's email and talking about hitting refresh on every page of his website?
OH-7: Safe Red.
OH-8 - In the Western area of the state including Hamilton and most of Middletown. The red incumbent, John Boehber, won this district with 69% of the vote or 5 better than W, but has been running away from the Foley scandal like nobody's business. Our guy is Mort Meier, running on restoring integrity and honesty to Congress. Now, interestingly, Mort ran as a Republican in a primary against then-Congressman Buz Lukens. He lost that primary to a third contender, John Boehner. So, this is a rematch, of sorts. Except with Tom Foley folded into the mix. Oh, yeah, I've been doing service stuff. Mort spent four years in the Air Force during the Korean War. Meier is really a place-holder in this race... this race is a referendum on Boehner, and it's his to win or lose.
OH-8: Well?
OH-9 - In the Northern portion of the state including Toledo and Sandusky. Our incumbent, Marcy Kaptur, won this one with 68% of the vote, or 10 better than Kerry. The reddies are running Bradley Leavitt for this seat, and, really, it's a credit to him that he's willing to take this on: he's a young guy, seems to be on his way to earning his Bachelor's Degree after a short stint in the Navy and working in a couple of steel mills. He doesn't really say what his views are except that they are the same as other people's in the district.
OH-9: Safe Blue.
OH-10 - The West Side of Cleveland and its suburbs. This is Dennis Kucinich's district, and he won it with 60%, or 2 better than Kerry. The reddies are running Mike Dovilla, a guy who has a very weird sounding job to which he was appointed by Mr. Bush the Younger (Executive Director of the Chief Human Capital Officers Council). Before that, he served under Senator Voinovich doing things that his website make sound very important. It looks for all the world like the guy's a heavyweight, sort of like a Rahm Emanuel, except that he clearly isn't anywhere near as important as he claims to be. In the meantime, Kucinich is still wildly popular in his district, which makes things easy for me...
OH-10: Safe Blue.
OH-11 - The East Side of Cleveland and its suburbs. Our incumbent, Stephanie Tubbs Jones, ran unopposed last time, so the best indicator for the district is that Kerry carried 81% of the vote there. The reddies are running Lindsey String, a person whose gender I cannot discern from hir website, nor hir ethnicity, not that it matters, but you'd figure the website would have a picture somewhere, maybe under the Bio section. My favorite line in hir website is "6. We must remove anti-American liberalism from our local governments, our local media and most of all from our schools so we can begin to repair the damage it has caused.". Yeah. And s/he's running against Stephanie Tubbs Jones, hero of the post-2004 election fiasco. Another easy call.
OH-11: Safe Blue.
OH-12 - The Central portion of the state including Eastern Columbus and its suburbs. The red incumbent, Pat Tiberi, won this one with 62%, but it was a 51/49 split for Bush/Kerry. Our guy is Bob Shamansky, an active duty Korean War veteran, and Special Agent in the Army's Counter-Intelligence Corps, he attended Harvard Law School and became a partner in his firm. In 1980, he was the first Democrat elected to represent Ohio's 12th Congressional District since 1937/ In the so-called "Reagan Revolution", Bob was the only Democratic Congressional candidate in the nation to defeat an incumbent Republican. He raised largely the same amount as the reddie did and popped in a million of his own money. The guy's a firebrand, and I don't care what the pundits say. This is going to be a close one. And don't be surprised if Bob pulls it off.
OH-12: You heard it here first. Tossup leaning Blue.
OH-13 - The Northeast part of the state including parts of Akron. Our incumbent, and soon-to-be-Senator, Sherrod Brown, won this district with 67% of the vote or 11% better than Kerry. Because Sherrod is going for a promotion, this is an open seat, and we are running Betty Sutton, a labor lawyer, and member of a city council, a county council and the State Legislature. The reddies are running Craig Foltin, the mayor of the City of Lorain who previously was the auditor. He seems to be an obnoxious sod, who capitalizes "Republican" and keeps "democrat" lower case. His websit drips with negativity from the first sentence where it touts its other website (badneighborbetty.com). He's not going to win this race, he never was. His job is to run offense and to be as offensive as possible in doing so. I'm surprised he's not dressed like something out of Dungeons and Dragons wielding a +5 Halberd. Fortunately, Betty's got a nice lead in the polls and 3x the COH, and that's as affective as +2 platemail.
OH-13: Blue unless Betty loses a savings throw against reddie.
OH-14 - The Northeast part of the state including the suburbs of Cleveland and Akron. The red incumbent, Steve LaTourette, won this district with 63% of the vote, or 11% better than W. Our guy is Lewis Katz, a New York kid who went into Political Science because his family talked politics. He taught at the University of Hawaii, where he met the late Patsy Mink, a Democratic stalwart in the House. When his year there was up, he came to the midwest, went to law school, enlisted in the Army Reserves, and later was commissioned in the Navy Reserves as an officer in the Judge Advocate General Corps. After a stint in private practice, he went back to teaching, and has been teaching criminal law for 40 years. He's running for Congress because it has to be done to ensure a healthy America. He knows America has gone off the tracks under the reddies, and he knows the only way to keep things from getting worse is to change directions. I like this guy. I should start a list of guys I just like. If I ever do, Lew will be on it. There's no reason that Lew can't make LaTourette work for it. He's a pitbull on the pantleg of opportunity. Why not throw him some green?
OH-14: Redder than it needs to be, but 2008 isn't that far off.
OH-15 - Western Columbus and its suburbs, and the district of the embattled reddie Deborah Pryce, who won this district with 60% of the vote in a district that Bush beat Kerry 50/49. Our gal is Mary Jo Kilroy, the County Commissioner of Franklin County, which includes the City of Columbus and many of its suburbs. In case you haven't been watching, this is one of the hottest races of the season, and Kilroy keeps taking it to Pryce, and, for her part, Pryce can't seem to get a break what with all this Foley stuff and all. Polls consistently show Kilroy up by a good margin, but Pryce is a fighter and has 2m COH to Kilroy's 800k.
OH-15: Blue Pickup, but needs lovin.
OH-16 - The Northeast portion of the state including Canton. The red incumbent, Ralph Regula, won this district with 67% of the vote or 13 better than W, meaning that the district was 54/46 Bush/Kerry. Our guy is Tom Shaw, a Methodist minister who wants to clean out the "cesspool of corruption that has been cultivated by Congress over the last 6 years". Let's face it. Any guy who uses the word 'cesspool' on why he wants to run for Congress is O.K.! Oh, he's gonna lose. He's brand new in politics and he's running against a 17-term incumbent with no money, little name recognition, and not even a mention in ActBlue. But the guy's got heart, and hopefully, he'll be back.
OH-16: Safe Red.
OH-17 - Also in the Northeast portion of the state, including Youngstown. Our incumbent, Tim Ryan, won this one with 77% of the vote, or 14 better than Kerry. He is running against reddie Donald Manning, who seems to have no money, no website and no wikipedia entry. So, dear readers, with no information to go on, I'm calling it for Ryan, and guessing he'll top 80% this time!
OH-17: Safe Blue.
OH-18 - A large district in the East Central portion of the state. The indicted red incumbent, Bob Net, won this one with 66% of the vote or 9% better than W. Our guy is Zack Space, the Law Director and City Attorney of Dover. He is running against State Senator Joy Padgett, the woman who, infamously, used a picture of long-time hostage Terry Anderson with his captors, as a campaign tool to say that Anderson was a member of the "Blame America crowd", and, astoundingly, beat him 54/46. She claimed bankruptcy this past June, a mere two months before winning the special election which would name her the red nominee for Ney's seat, claiming 1.16m in debts versus assets of $202k, and while I don't want to use someone's personal tragedies against them like, oh, some people might, it is worth mentioning because the bankruptcy was blamed on a failing business of which she was the treasurer. It might be perfect for a lawmaker in Ws world, but not for the real world. The latest poll has Zack up 9 but trailing in COH.
OH-18: Like OH-15, Blue Pickup, but needs lovin.