Unlike Sidinny's great
Election Race Diary Roundup which covers diaries about House races all over the country in a single day, this diary brings together, and adds information to, some diaries about a single House race over the past month or so. Together, the diaries and comments add up to a great portrait of an important election, showing 1) the race is winnable, because of 2) an excellent challenger and campaign organization, 3) great netroots support, 4) a favorable context, and 5) a weak incumbent who is 6) vulnerable on important issues highlighted in the diaries. Plus: what you can do to help win (most of it right there at your keyboard).
Before we zoom in on the district, here's where it fits in the overall map: Superribbie's
Updated Composite House Ratings by Pro Analysts has NY-19 tied for 34, among the top 5 or 6 races outside the lean Republican category. Similarly, DanfromRaisingKaine's
51 Hot Races that Democrats can win has it is listed as one of 10 races on the fringe. Those races are the ones to focus on right now, in the last serious effort to broaden the field in advance of the Sept. 30 filing deadline for fundraising reports that will be lots of groups and people will use to determine which races will get the final push.
Chuco35 commented in one of the diaries that we don't provide enough background information. So the basics:
The district is competitive: 1% more Republican than the average district in the county.
The incumbent: Republican Sue Kelly, voted to limit everyone else to 6 terms in Congress, but is running for a 7th term herself. Votes 85% Republican, but doesn't mention she's a Republican on her website. She runs ads pretending to be an environmentalist but the League of Conservation Voters (LCV) rated her record 17% last year. She hasn't faced a challenge this serious; her last 2 challengers combined had $80,000.
The Challenger: John Hall, convincingly won the primary with 49% in 4-way race, and got support at a unity event after the primary with all the opponents.
From the diaries, we know
1. the race is winnable.
bobswern's NY-19: Poll Shows Statistical Dead Heat reported the first post-primary poll showing Kelly 49 and Hall 44, within the margin of sampling error. The comments include some debate on internal polls by reputable firms and what it means to be within the margin of error. Most important: Kelly is under 50%, John is close; the race is winnable.
2. A great candidate and campaign
Hall previously won elections to County legislature and twice to school board. He is well known as an environmental leader going back to the No Nukes concerts in the 70s. Literally a rock star - with Orleans (the hits: Still the One, Dance with Me; my favorite: Please Be There) - yielding extra media attention and fundraising opportunities with music industry friends: Jackson Browne, Bonnie Raitt, Nanci Griffith, Roseane Cash, Steve Earle. Plus, John is smart, articulate, a skilled campaigner and a genuinely nice guy. bobswern links to a Nation article describing Hall's "antiwar campaign that promised to jump-start the Democratic Party as an opposition force in Congress." One of his direct mail pieces features a picture of W with the words "Had Enough?"
Bobswern describes the campaign organization as the best he's ever seen, and comments provide testimonials to the excellent campaign staff in the office in Beacon - give them a call at 845-831-1735.
3. Netroots support
includes the district blog Take19 that has posted diaries here, and synergy with NYBri's brilliant insurgent run for New York State Senate in a district that partially overlaps NY-19.
Don't forget NYBri's blograiser TODAY.
There were favorable comments in the diaries about John's live blogging on Firedoglake.
4. Favorable Context
In addition to NYBri down-ticket, at the top of the ticket very weak Republicans running sure losing campaigns for Governor and Senator will do little to inspire their base. Aug6PDB mentioned in comments that the district is trending blue, pointing specifically to significant gains in the Orange County Legislature. And turnout in the Democratic primary was unusually high. We're fired up!
5. Weak incumbent
Aug6PDB has had several diaries on weaknesses of the Kelly campaign. A great one Oh, Snap! On Sue Kelly (NY-19) by Times-Herald-Record reports about a local paper busting Sue Kelly, reporting with the headline "Didn't think we'd check?" on the closing of a local bookstore. Kelly, who is on the small business committee, said "I always buy my books from small independent bookstores" and when asked which one, she gave the name of a store in her hometown that had closed that turned out to be a furniture store.
Progressive Moderate points out that Kelly is desperate enough to have been running ads in August.
The Kelly campaign also looks pathetic in Westchesterdem's diary. But note also the posts at Take19 by and about the Pound Ridge Republican Town Committee Chair. The campaign seems weak, but they have some people who are working hard. We can't underestimate them or let them outwork us.
6. Issue vulnerabilities
Take19 diaried the payday loan issue pointing out predatory lenders target the troops. The Pentagon report to which the diary linked (pdf) says more needs to be done to protect the troops from these predatory lenders. Kelly is the chair of the Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight of the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee but isn't doing anything about it, maybe because she's gotten thousands in contributions from these operators.
That Pentagon report also calls for state legislation to protect the troops. But even though Republicans talk about letting states decide, if they don't like the decisions states make they are all for the national government pre-empting states. In a similar issue, Kelly voted against capping the cost of rent-to-own contracts at twice the cash value of the product, and then voted against allowing states to have more stringent laws on rent-to-own contracts (HR 1701, Votes 392 and 394, 9/18/2002).
Take19's great idea about identifying other races where the issue would play didn't get much response, but in another diary lapin points to Geoff Davis (KY-4) in A Glimpse into the cold heart of the GOP with a link to an earlier diary by clammyc for more background. And there was an ad, not available now, on this by the challenger Ken Lucas. Another Republican in a very competitive race who is vulnerable on this issue is Deborah Pryce (OH-15).
In the comments, there was some dispute about whether we should emphasize payday loans. For people who want more than just the predatory lending issue, Kelly not only voted for the bankruptcy bill that makes it harder for people to deal with debt, but she voted against protecting consumers from bigger credit card bills. She voted to allow credit card companies to raise interest rates on cardholders who pay their bill for that card on time but borrow money to pay for a medical emergency, make a late payment on another credit card, and a variety of other reasons. HR 2622, Vote 495, 9/10/2003. So vote for Kelly if you want to pay higher interest rates on your credit cards, vote against her if you don't.
The military component of predatory lending connects to another vulnerability diaried by danwalter NY-19: Politics and Disabled Vets pointed out Kelly's 0 rating from Disabled American Veterans. Some people say that ratings from Disabled American Veterans don't have the brand identification of LCV ratings. And while that's probably true for people who follow politics closely, for everyone else you don't have to ever have heard of DAV or know that it was formed in 1920 and has a million members, or even that the phrase refers to a specific group, to feel right away the impact of Disabled American Veterans rated Sue Kelly a 0.
Take a look at Project Vote-Smart to see how DAV rated your rep
So, recapping:
Competitive district; great challenger, campaign organization and netroots support in a favorable context; weak incumbent, vulnerable on the issues.
NYPopulist reports that Kelly's campaign fears "a concerted, coordinated effort of `left-wing' bloggers" Make it so!
So what can you do
1. Do what you can do right now right where you are - talk this race up here and elsewhere in the series of tubes. Recommend good election diaries.
2. Contact the DCCC and explain the importance of this race. There's a lot of complaining about the DCCC, less reaching out. Don't just complain they make the wrong decisions, help them make the right ones. You have the power!
3. Contribute - especially right now before the Sept 30 filing deadline. If you have $5.01 to help end Republican rule, please visit my actblue page
The number of contributors will matter more than the amount; give more if you can. Please contribute what you can now, to this campaign or to others, because reports of the 3Q fundraising will be important in generating additional support.
4. Volunteer - phone bank from home (ask the campaign how) or come to the beautiful Hudson Valley, admire fall foliage, win an election! A great place to spend a weekend or two canvassing, especially the weekend before the election. And volunteer on election day in the field or calling from home.
For more info and to sign up: www.johnhallforcongress.com
Mobilize to win!