It is time to start planning how you will get around after the Oil Age, kossacks.
The rest of the world knows this is the end of The Age Of Oil.
Our planes are dropping from the skies. Truck drivers are striking on the highways. Our oil-based agriculture is going belly-up. We are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Gas prices will not be going down.
We are now facing a radical change in how we get around, akin to the end of the horse and buggy era.
There are various options going ahead. Cuba shows us one way to end The Oil Age. They have been painstakingly restoring and are still running the 1950's cars we abandoned to them over a half century ago.
Some will no doubt find ways to convert the stock we have to new uses, as they have. The SUV you trade in next is unlikely to still run on gas in 20 years. If you are handy you might want to consider the conversion options I listed here last year.
This turning point in history: the end of The Oil Age, need not be the end of a functioning economy. We switched painlessly from the end of the whale oil age. Think of the era of oil as a blip in our transportation history. We can switch to a new tech that is older and simpler than the Internal Combustion Engine - the electric horseless carriage was first created in 1830:
Our early designs for horseless carriages had a certain elegance that grew from the simplicity of the electric motor driving them, like this 1900 Porsch EV.
What are the feasible options after The Oil Age ends?
I have zero faith in alt fueled climate disasters such as ethanol (interesting new take on why it doesn't make sense), hydrogen (why it doesn't make sense) and coal fumes (duh): so I am not covering these. I will cover here my favorite options. Both return us to before the oil age, back to the 18th century: the Age of Reason. These are
- Human powered (electric assisted)
- Electric vehicles
And of course use renewable energy to power them so if you are a CA voter, vote in Nov to get renewable power up to 50% by 2025 in CA, we already made it to 14% on our journey to 20% by 2010, and we want to go further, now that that goal is in sight.
1.Human power
OK. Human powered vehicles have come a long way in dignity since the rickshaw, but essentially that is what these are. Perhaps we have to make peace with our animal nature to accept again what looks pretty outrageous to the modern eye. People moving other people. Shocking. Disgusting.
Yet. Times change. Now as part of a health conscious age we see this differently.
Pedicabs. Post Oil Age Cuba has fleets of them to show us how its done.
En France we have the ubiquitousUrban Cab
Spain too.
They are really noticing the desert creeping towards them in Europe, where they still have a fourth estate to keep them apprised of these matters:
The Saharahas crossed the Mediterranean, forcing thousands to migrate as a lethal combination of soil degradation and climate change turns parts of southern Europe into desert.
A major UN conference was told yesterday that up to a third of Europe's soil could eventually be affected.
A fifth of Spanish land is so degraded that it is turning into desert, according to figures released for the first time yesterday, and in Italy tracts of land in the south are now abandoned and technically desert.
Whereas here we don't even know that Cedar Rapids just sunk due to climate change. The IPPC predicted increasing flooding and precipitation in the Eastern US droughts and wildfires in the Wast due to climate change. There has been a fourfold rise in dangerous weather incidents in the last decade.
Zero emission vehicles make sense.
NYC uses pedicabs, they are big in Indonesia, theNew Amsterdam Project delivers groceries with these cargo rickshaws they designed and built.
Electric assisted pedicabs make a lot of climate change sense, even apart from the end of oil. If you image google rickshaw you'll see the many new designs being developed, clearly there is a movement in this direction. The human powered vehicle is also good for moving kids and groceries, and in Europe where towns were designed for a human scaled life people do ride more bikes.
2. Electric cars.
Last year I diaried the prices and ranges of electric vehicles likely to be available for sale by 2010, both freeway speed and slowed speed (NEV) options. Two of the Californian startups I listed have delivered as promised their first masterpieces off the assembly line: the glamorous and pricey Tesla Roadster and the mundane workhorse Phoenix electric truck, and SMART delivered the SMARTFORTWO on schedual also.
There are some changes and new options since last year, and these changes are in estimated arrival, estimated prices, likelihood changes and some have come from out in left field. These first 3 are closer to likelihood for the US, but you need to sign their 3 petitions to tell them that yes, even Americans are ready to buy electric vehicles!
I have divided this up into 3 sections:
Three EV's You Need To Petition For
What is Coming By 2010
What you Can Buy Now
*Charging Infrastructure
Just plug in at home for a range of 20 - 80 miles depending on model.
Then, in addition to that, to extend ranger further, 3 options: top ups, on board and battery swaps.
Fast Chargers: in Japan AEON is developing charging stations to assist IMiEV and R1e do a Fast Recharge away from home to top up. It looks like we will have that option here too.
Range Extenders: The Volt comes with a security blankie for the worry that you might exceed your daily EV range: there is a wee gas engine as well to get you cross country if needed. Phoenix will add an onboard Range Extender too.
Project Better Place has the battery swap idea. Ecototality doesn't think it will be the one we adopt.
The Fast Charging option offered by the iMiEV, R1e, Miles and THINK is (so far!) the more widely adopted solution rather than the onboard gas-powered range extender or battery swaps for topping up. You can put a station at a Starbucks for a cost of $125,000, per Miles. It takes a very thick cable to provide sufficiently low resistance. Putting that much energy in the capacitors so quickly requires very high current and voltage, much more than is available from a regular outlet.
Worry about adding more stress to the grid? This idea is to have charging stations that pull power from their own batteries and not directly from the grid:
Super Fast Charger stations, such as those produced by Altair or Epyon could charge vehicle batteries, recharge themselves during off hours and help to deliver more power to the grid during peak times... more powerful batteries have made the idea more feasible.
(About recycling the batteries in EVs: Californias PG&E also wants to buy batteries once they've outlived their usefulness for transportation and install them in the basements of office towers and at electrical substations to store green energy. That will cut peak demand for expensive hot afternoon electrons. EV batteries generally retain 80 percent of their capacity even after they're no longer good for powering cars, so they could charge banks of EV batteries at night with wind power which is a night source when demand is lower.)
Section 1. Three EV's You Need To Petition For
1. Mitsubishi iMiEV Petition
$25,000
80 miles per charge + 80% Fast Recharge* in 30 mins
80 mph top speed
Seats 4
I know you were distracted when Mitsubishi brought the iMiEV to show you this Spring: it was the primaries! They think you don't care: the sales rep in this video sounds flat, like only if there was a demand from us, would they cater to this little old backwater of gasguzzling flatearthers when Europe and other markets beckon.
There is a lot of practical info in this video from Mitsubishi such as that since this most of this vehicle is already on the assemblyline as a gas guzzler, it is not that much of a stretch to make this an EV.
For performance watch thisvideo of the iMiEV easily master the astonishingly long ascent of these Japanese Alps.
The iMiEv doesn't have to be this garish red and white colorway: here is the more sedate shade it delivers mail in for the Japanese postal service.
It has the same wheelbase size as a VW Rabbit, but far more of the air above is encaptured for its interior, so it is roomy, while small.
2. Subaru R1e Petition (bottom of page)
EST $20,000-$40,000
50 miles per charge + 15 min 80% Fast Recharge* option
65 mph top speed
Seats 2
Following their successful tests in the civilized world, two of the Subaru R1e EVs will join the New York Power Authority (NYPA) fleet for testing here.
When I signed the petition at the bottom of the Subaru page to ask for this EV in the US, I let them know we are being held captive for ransom in this benighted nation - our government can not be counted on to help...
In Japan the government really gets involved in paradigm-shifting disruptive tech - no whining about not picking winners or losers from them! The National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology worked with Nagasaki University and Fuji Heavy Industries (the parent company of Subaru) in creating a battery with twenty times higher energy capacity using manganese instead of cobalt.
Just like the Japanese government essentially gave us the Prius by generously subsidising early adopters.
3. Mercedes-Benz SmartForTwo ED Petition
EST $20,000-$40,000
72 miles per charge
60 mph top speed
Seats 2
The already shipped gasoline SmartForTwo is tiny! I saw one of the first deliveries in April parked among the weeds in an industrial factory area of SF next to normal cars. It looked as cute and clunky and solid as a toddlers sneaker in a closetfull of old boots in that context. The Electric Drive option is as well made as the original gas version. They have now finished testing the Electric Drive in the UK and are starting their test in LA with lithium batteries.
Mercedes-Benz says that in 7 years they willstop making gasoline vehicles altogether! They will make hydrogen and diesel and electric cars, using diesel for the hybrids instead of gasoline.
Section 2. What Is Coming By 2010
GM Volt
$40,000
40 miles per charge (+ 600 mile onboard Range Extender*)
120 mph top speed
Seats 4
Less ugly than in still photos, in street driving the Volt looks surprisingly elegant, somehow suggesting a ballet slipper to me. CEO Lutz is clueless about Climate Change so this is not what motivates GM, unlike many of the startups like Tesla and ZENN. Which makes trusting fruition of this more more iffy, driven forth merely by perceived peak oil - which will fluctuate even in descent, as the world will embark on last ditch ventures to scrape the bottom of the barrel. Take the zero emission pledge to nudge them along. $10,000 more expensive than initially thought. Subsidies like Clinton's excellent $10,000 EV subsidy will be needed to get the EV switch done. Lets work on the Senate majority that we must have to pass the eco legislation next year that we couldn't do so far. GM is the other big US company that sold out on us by (Who Killed The Electric Car?) killing the EV1, but that is no reason to punish their Detroit workers creating the followup. There might be a pure EV only option for purists, but currently the Volt will have its own onboard Range Extender powered by a little gas engine, making it a Series Hybrid.
TH!NK
$25,000
125 - 250 miles per charge includes 45 minute Fast Charge*
100 mph top speed
Seats 2 (+ 2 kids or groceries)
Ford originally murdered its TH!NK in 2002
heres some historical footage of unhappy customers:
But now that EV just won't stay dead!
The 17 year old Norwegian company begun by Jan Otto Ringdal, that made these for Ford to meet the California Mandate, would not give up on the THINK and is now bringing it back to bite Ford in the ass I mean US - with actual production facilities to build it here in the USA. GE's Ecoimagination has invested $24 million in the technology. The now Norwegian TH!NK will also produce a van for America's soccer moms:
TH!NK 0x
$30,000
125 - 250 miles per charge includes 45 minute Fast Charge*
65 - 80 mph top speed
Seats 5
After the California Mandate was outwitted by the autocompanies'lawyers, Ford also killed their Ford Ranger truck EV, but now a determined union UAW worker in the Midwest is attempting to revive the Ford Ranger EV and another company will convert Ford Rangers into EVs for you. The Ranger was an ideal EV truck, so sad that Ford gave up on a great idea. Take the zero emission pledge to nudge them along to reintroduce it.
Pininfarina Nido
EST $25,000
155 miles per charge + 5 minute Fast Recharge*
80 mph top speed
Seats 2
Originally designed in 2004 by the design company Pininfarina the NIDO won the "L'Automobile più Bella del Mondo" concept car award in 2005, a production model will be shown at Geneva in October 2008 and coming to the US for 2010.
Toyota (Plug In)Prius
est $35,000-$45,000
250 miles per charge
+ 100 mpg
Seats 5
Toyota has no motive for adding a PHEV Prius since it will likely do fine as a regular hybrid as gas prices rise, so this is hardly a definite, but Toyota is now talking the talk finally, on building the long begged-for plug in version of the Prius, that increases its mpg to +100. This is still a hybrid, but one you can plug in at night to get the + 100 mpg we demanded at our Step It Up rally.
What Toyota also could do to easily meet the CA Mandate is simply bring back its fabulous RAV4 EV that was so popular. I rode last year in one of the last RAV4 EVs, and they feel just like regular RAV4s: and I was at an eco fest in Marin with one of the last ones behind me for SFEVA, and every eco Marin mom toting sandy footed kids past our booth wanted that EV to take the kids and the dog to the beach. One of the few that didn't get crushed just sold on eBay for what this EV is worth to us Americans, Toyota! Just bring it back.
Nissan Denki Cube
$,000
miles per charge
mph top speed
Seats
(no details yet)
Now also even Nissan says they will have an EV in the US by 2010.
Nissan's CEO says he believes the future is electric vehicles and has committed to offering a range of EV models not just this one, to choose from. He is motivated by California's strict emissions rules.
Thank goodness for the ZEV Mandate and the imminent threat of the California Waiver which awaits only a restored EPA to immediately become law! (such foresight!) Everyone can jump through hoops when we just demand it. We should show this kind of legislative backbone more often. Good policy can save the world.
cityZENN
$19,000
250 miles per charge with 5 minute Fast Charge*
80 mph
Seats 4
The Canadian startup ZENN Cars already sells a speed limited ZENN that I test drove last year (see below) and wished could be a freeway speed EV. This EVpodcast interview with the CEO of ZENN is a good detailsource for this news that ZENN has a freeway speed option in the works. Given ZENNs EESTOR battery development and the competent engineering of their NEV, it looks likely.
Smith Electric Vehicles Newton
$,000
150 miles per charge
50 mph top speed
Seats
TNT in the UK just ordered another 100 of these delivery vans and Smith Electric Vehicles showed here at the EVs-23 show in January. They plan to start production of10,000 trucks in 2010 in a US factory. They have been making a 2 ton to 12 ton range of EV trucks and vans for 80 years, and so not surprisingly their parent company (Tanfield) stock jumped like sevenfold in the last few years...
There have been no inklings about just where Smith is building this US factory, but I see that they they are planning oncollaborating with Ford to build future EVs in the US
such as this Smith - Ford EV van: the Ampere... so I suspect there might be a Smith/Ford merger or aquisition to come. Certainly Smith - with its EV expertize - and Ford with its Detroit factories (and a CEO who has seen the light), would be a great combination to reinvigorate Detroit with truly green vehicle development.
Modec
$,000
100 miles per charge
50 mph top speed
Seats 2
Another British commercial vehicle company Modec also showed at the EV show in January as I diaried here. There is a sample at a winery in Napa. They have sold their EV vans to Tesco in the UK for deliveries. Their FAQ page has good answersto my questions.
Phoenix SUV
$45,000
110 miles per charge + 10 minute Fast Charge*
95 mph top speed
Seats 5
The California startup Phoenix initially focused on fleet buyers for its two models, the SUV and the SUT.
The production model of the truck version (SUT) which gets 130 miles per charge wastest driven in 2007. PG&E has been testing the first 4 SUV models since 2007: initially these will be for fleet buyers like PG&E only, but in a few years for everyone.
Phoenix is also considering an onboard battery Range Extender making both models series hybrids like the Volt (the new CA ZEV mandate favors hybrids).
Fisker Karma
est $80,000
50 miles per charge + gas Range Extender*
125 mph top speed
Seats 4
Spurned Tesla WhiteStar designer Henrik Fisker unveiled the body design for the Karma at the Detroit auto show this Spring. Lawsuits are flying with his previous company Tesla, obviously this is similar to the WhiteStar design... Fisker plans to stay in Detroit and utilize the rusting factories there to revive an auto industry newly geared to building eco cars, with Quantum Technologiesdoing the grunt work under the hood. Fiskers Karma will have Range Extenders like on the Volt. Since Fisker had been designing the whiteStar for Tesla, this aesthetic suggests what Tesla's secret next model the WhiteStar $50,000 sedan might look like. The Karma 500 orders already from the Detroit show this Spring. Like Tesla, Fisker plans a cheaper car next. They will use a solar roof to cool the car while parked. The AC is the most energy-expensive aspect of EVs, and a lot of that is to dispell the heat accumulated while parked. Update: will be assembled in Finland/to deliver 2009.
UEV Spyder
$80,000
150 - 250 miles per charge
110 mph
Seats 2
This quintessentially Californian EV startup company has still posted no new news since my last diary, but it plans to enter the x-prize. Or maybe making one perfect One Off is like the Haute Couture of the car business and that is ok too...check in with them at Spyder to see whats happening, maybe they just need some help getting going on this...
VW Golf PHEV
$,000
31 miles per charge + diesel till recharge
70 mpg
75 mph
Seats 4
VW also just unveiled this PHEV Golf, that they call atwin drive which will operate about like the Prius a short range on electric: switching to gas after that, but it is not really a parallel hybrid like the Prius, or a serial hybrid like the Volt... A plug-in hybrid with a very robust electric drivetrain that's forced to drag around an internal combustion engine in case it gets too far away from home, but yielding 70 miles per gallon. Maybe you can figure out how twin drive works from their diagram. 2010 in Germany, but noticed their model has a left hand drive...
Miles XS500
$39,000
120 miles per charge
80 mph
Seats 4
Another EV startup in CA, Miles, still says they will have their sedate sedan by 2010, but they have not met earlier delivery promises yet. They seem to be building it in China. Mayor Bloomberg tried one there last year and declared it good. They, like ZENN, do currently make excellent Neighbourhood Electric Vehicles - their sturdy truck NEV is now available (see below: Section 3)
Venturi Eclectic
$30,000
50 miles per charge + or solar roof recharging
31 mph top speed
Seats 3
The French design firm Venturi's Eclectic initially looked like a toy to me, although beautiful, (and an effortless climber, as you can see in this amazing video)
But then, after the Bali conference in which the US was reproached by the entire world for being such a carbon pig, my view altered and I saw us as just as greedy and excessive as the (ultimately beheaded) Marie Antoinette and her husband Louis. Now it simply looks right for here in the dry West where we're going to have a hundred year drought - so no chance of ruining those nice shoes. This price is for the first run, but they passed their homologations to sell here and plan to produce more at a lower price if the first run does well.
Aptera
$30,000
120 miles per charge
90 mph top speed
Seats 2 (+1/2)
This will have two options, straight EV in which a UK site says the Aptera will have a range of 120 miles but autoblog green says in a series hybrid option like the Volt, a 1000 mile range.
Loremo
$,000
93 - 124 miles per charge
105 mph top speed
Seats 2
The German firm Loremo plans this EV for 2010. I have generally ignored all the foreign EVs that have not specified that they will sell here but I have a feeling this might. Just a possibility. But now, on to what is!...
oh, wait: also, on the drawing board: the Mini Cooper EV. Updated July: yes, the Mini EV will be available in 2009 at least in California.
Last Christmas Sams Club sold an EV conversion of a Mini Cooper with lithium ion batteries conversion by Hybrid Technologies. I think conversions will lead to production, but are not quite there yet, and so I have not included other conversion companies for that reason.
But the fact that conversion companies have selected this as an electric conversion body, means it will probably become as an EV, but I didn't add it to the update, which I am trying to keep to production, not conversions, even fun and entertaining ones like the tzero by A C Propulsion's Tom Gage that I interviewedlast year. Hybrid Technologies began mini cooper conversions last year. Conversions are always more expensive than building the technology in to begin with in: Hybrid's conversion makes the Mini a $60,000 EV. However, the Plug-In Prius was a conversion option for years before Toyota said they would make us a Plug-In option available. So. I bet it will be in my next years update.
...and another conversion company: UQM Technologies, is making Chevy Silverados into EVs for the US Army. Likewise....
Section 3. What You Can Buy Now
If money is no object:
Tesla Roadster
$100,000
220 miles per charge
135 mph top speed
Seats 2
All hail the Rolls Royce of EV's, grown from scratch in California, and the first one out of the gate - available now! Many kudos to Tesla for this huge achievement! There's even a Tesla store, where you can get service like a regular car company, and where they sold 3 in the first 3 days. Tell your rich friends to pick up a few Roadsters because that will fund the next price down, the WhiteStar sedan and in ten years the $15,000 model that will change the world.
If goofiness is no object:
NMG(No More Gas)
$29,000
40 - 70 miles per charge (40 in snow, 70 summer)
116 mph top speed
Seats 1
This car from Myers Motors which they bought from Corbin has real fans. It apparently feels like driving in a racecar with the car being like a helmet. It is fine in the snows of Ohio, and rebounds fine in crashes. I have concerns with its silly looks, but thats just me and many owners like this fellow SFEVA member really love this car. I feel it is so important to get people into carbon neutral cars, and this one could be perfect (116 mph top speed!) if it looked less like it just escaped from the circus.
This Spark-EV Comet designed by Gianpaolo Alvino turned out to be vaporware from Spark-EV and Michael Papp was just arrested for fraud, and so this designer was not paid but his is a more dignified design for a 3 wheeler. Maybe a good designer like this will be hired by Myers... I know the CEO was looking for a second design after the Sparrow (they bought from Corbin that was renamed the NMG), and I know from my conversations with them that they have their hearts in the right place at Myers.
If time is no object: NEVs.
ZENN
$13,000
30 miles per charge
25 mph top speed
Seats 4
I test drove this ZENN last year in Santa Cruz. It is a perky and responsive normal-feeling car - if somewhat bare bones: about like my daughters 1985 Civic. It gets up to speed fast and brakes fast. It really is just like a 1980's lightweight car, but a model we didn't have: it is roomy inside. I would recommend this and recommend talking to ZENN about unlocking the speed control a bit. It can go faster with its EESTOR battery, and the enforced 25 mph just feels like it slows you too soon.
Miles
$18,000
60 miles per charge
25 mph top speed
Seats 2
Miles is now rolling 200 a month of these sturdy truck NEVs off the assemblyline. They also make an SUV like the ZENN, per their site. These are regular 4 wheeled NEVs, unlike the ZAP truck.
GEM
$7,500
50 miles per charge
25 mph top speed
Seats 2
GEM makes the quintessential golf carty NEVs. I didn't include one in my first diary because I thought it was too flimsy and ridiculous looking on their site. But that was before someone who shops the same farmers market as me leftthis model parked there every Saturday, and I kept seeing a mini bus version at Kaiser. In real life GEMs have more solidity and dignity than you would expect and can look pretty hip and Green. The pictures on their site seem strangely determined to kill sales by making it look like a feeble old ladies cart, but this famous environmentalist Simran Sethi of treehugger.com shows how it can look cool and as sturdy as it really is in real life.
ZAP
$12,000
25 miles per charge
40 mph top speed
Seats 2 (car version seats 4)
I test drove a ZAP (the car, similar to the truck, but shorter) in Alameda, and it had a wobbly mirror. It was too slow to brake which felt unsafe. If someone suddenly ran out in front of me: too bad. The brakes are slow. They make it 3 wheeled like a motorbike so it does not need to meet crash test ratings of 4 wheeled vehicles - thats why this can go go 40 mph, is not speed slowed like the other NEVs. But I see them driving here in town now and if you are as careful as you are on a mototrbike, this is certainly an option. One thing to watch with ZAP is their eye is bigger than their stomach as my mom used to say: lots of vaporware at their site. But that can be a good thing too. If ZAP hadn't tried (though failed) to import the SMART car, Mercedes-Benz would never have realized there was a market here, and we would not have the SMART.
Of course, we will continue to redesign both our lifestyles and our expectations, because we just are an inventive species. There is always that relaxed charm of simply accepting a simpler way of life... time to smell the roses...
We as individuals will continue to create great solutions, from the sublime to the simply ridiculous like this picnic table bicycle invention
or this kiddie EV.
Here is a brilliant and laboriously complex recreation of life's own preferred method of transportation: walking
Here is homegrown pedalpower even I would feel safe riding. With a 3 year old uninsured $30,000 broken ankle, I am wary of balancing tricks.
This is a great design for third world water transportation
Clearly people are willing to try anything to cut gas use...
Reminds me: somebody wanted to see an Electric ATV EV: this company showed these well made ones at the Anaheim EV Show:
The inventor of this solar powered EV pulled by George Bush makes a pretty good case for how much better robot legs work than wheels.
But for all of us unwilling to be pried from our more traditional vehicles,
this diary is for you.
And to all the terrific Democratic policy wonks on the California legislature who demanded with the Zero Emissions Vehicles Mandate that auto companies produce at least some (nor as many as we would like) cars with zero emissions - which got all the car manufacturers jumping through this hoop into the future, our planet says thank you.