Welcome to the month of June. Politically, we get two potentially competitive primaries within the next two weeks, and probably a slew of candidate announcements ahead of the second quarter filing deadlines on June 30th.
Oh, yeah...and summer starts, as well.
Let's get the month started by recapping Monday in the world of U.S. electoral politics.
NATIONAL: Gallup Looks At Obama Approval, Occupations
Gallup gives us two interesting bits of information to kick off the month of June. Markos already covered the continued narrowing of the GOP’s demographics. The second piece was also intriguing: breaking down voter approval for President Obama by the occupation of the respondent. Service employees like him the most (over 70% approval!!), those working in fishing or forestry like him the least (though he still scores over 50% with those folks, as well).
AL-GOV: Ten Commandments Judge Joins Crowded GOP Field
Republican Roy Moore, who lost his job as Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court because of his decision to ignore a federal court order not to post a monument to the Ten Commandments in the Alabama courtroom, is making a second bid for governor. In 2006, he was defeated by 33 points by incumbent Republican Governor Bob Riley. This time around, in an open seat GOP primary with at least four other potentially serious candidates (ex-chancellor Bradley Byrne, state treasurer Kay Ivey, state Rep. Robert Bentley and developer Tim James, the son of former Gov. Fob James), Moore might be a more serious challenger. At present, the two leading Democrats in the field are Congressman Artur Davis and state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks.
FL-SEN: One In, and One Out, of Democratic Senate Primary
Lest you think all of the fun in the Florida Senate race is going to be on the GOP side, we had news from the Democratic side to kick off the month. One piece of news was expected: Dan Gelber announced his was getting out of the Senate race, presumably to look at the attorney general’s race. The second piece of news was almost totally unexpected: the announcement that longtime North Florida congresswoman Corrine Brown was exploring an entrance into the Senate race. In so doing, she takes a small shot at the leading candidate in the Dem primary thus far: Congressman Kendrick Meek:
"I just think the state needs more than someone who's there to talk a great game, smile and take pictures, but the key is to deliver for the people of Florida"
Whoa. That was a little harsh.
NJ-GOV: Pre-Primary Poll In Garden State Gives Christie Wide Lead
Fairleigh Dickinson releases a poll on the eve of the gubernatorial primary in New Jersey. Previous polls gave archconservatives (and people on the left hoping for an easier general election opponent) the hope that Steve Lonegan was within striking distance of the establishment candidate: U.S. Attorney Chris Christie. FDU pours a gallon of cold water on that: they have Christie leading Lonegan by twenty-four points (54-30).
NY-GOV: Cuomo is.....OUT???
Well, maybe this is what both Senator Gillibrand and Politics1’s Ron Gunzberger were alluding to last week. Over the weekend, Andrew Cuomo indicated that he will NOT be a candidate in the Democratic primary for Governor next year. This is somewhat surprising, since recent polling has shown (a) Cuomo drubbing Paterson in a Democratic Primary and (b) Paterson getting blasted in a general election. One has to presume that there will be another Democrat who will challenge the very vulnerable Paterson in a primary. None, to date, have surfaced.
NY-03: Peter King in the Crosshairs of the Democrats??
A couple of interesting items today regarding one of the three (yes...that’s right...three) Republicans in the New York delegation to the U.S. House. The DCCC announced today an ad campaign slamming GOP incumbents for voting against a stimulus that would have brought crucial resources to the districts in question. Five of the incumbents targeted were fairly obvious ones: Don Young (AK-AL), Brian Bilbray (CA-50), Tom Rooney (FL-16), Thad McCotter (MI-11), and Charlie Dent (PA-15). The sixth was a more curious choice: Peter King (NY-03). Long Island has been trending away from the GOP for several cycles, but King has been able to defend his seat. There has been some speculation that King will challenge Sen. Gillibrand next year. If he doesn’t, it appears as if the Democrats are going to be serious about making a run at his seat. In another item posted today, King is taking a curious direction in his fundraising appeals, trotting out the shopworn "protect me from the lib’rul media" meme, and calling out Newsday in particular.
OK-SEN: Coburn In For Round #2
Markos alluded to this earlier today, so there is no real need to pile on. For those who missed it: as expected, Tom Coburn has decided to run for re-election to the U.S. Senate. Last week, there were reports that a pair of U.S. House members had already affirmed that Coburn would be back for another term.
PA-11: Kanjorski May Face Competitive House Rematch
The last two weeks have not been pleasant ones for longtime Rep. Paul Kanjorski. The Pennsylvania Democrat, in his thirteenth term, may be looking at a serious primary bid, according to reports last week. This week, we learn that Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta, who held Kanjorski to 51% of the vote last year, may be interested in a third shot at the incumbent (who also defeated him in 2002). Kanjorski held onto victory last year, but might have been helped by Presidential turnout (Obama carried the district 57-42).
VA-GOV: PPP Continues To Tease Dem Primary Poll
The crew at PPP ought to be hired to do the teasers for some of these reality TV shows—they sure know to build up some anticipation. After indicating last Friday that early numbers looked favorable for Creigh Deeds (and doing it in a fairly cryptic way, only alluding to the "impact of the Washington Post" endorsemet), they take it a step further today, indicating that next week’s Democratic primary is still anyone’s ballgame. In related news, the GOP settled their ticket over the weekend: as expected, state Attorney General Bob McDonnell will carry the gubernatorial banner, Bill Bolling will run for re-election as Lieutenant Governor, and state senator Ken Cuccinelli will be the standard bearer for the GOP for A.G.