By now you've probably heard that yet another poll is showing that Joe Sestak has taken the lead in the Pennsylvania Senate race. Many intrepid reporters and bloggers have reported this and it's great to see the enthusiasm around this race and to see so many people cheering the fact that he has "pulled a Sestak" again. But I have a bone to pick with some of this reporting. :)
Last week Nate Silver titled his NY Times column:
Second Sestak Comeback Is Unlikely
And today, Sam Stein titled his Huffington Post article:
Joe Sestak Making Play For Second Turn As Comeback Kid
Nate, Sam, others, this isn't Joe's second comeback. It's his THIRD!
Update at bottom of diary
THE FIRST COMEBACK
The 2006 Race for the 7th Congressional District in Pennsylvania
In early 2006, Joe Sestak became the candidate who would challenge ten-term incumbent, Curt Weldon, in PA-07. The race was rated "Favors Republican" then was changed to "Leans Republican" and later "Toss Up" before Sestak came from behind, late in the game, and won the race by twelve points. Before Sestak's election, this seat had been held by a Democrat only once since the Civil War.
Here's the Pollster.com chart showing what happened:
Here's a line from a DailyKos diary in September, 2006:
Pennsylvania 07 (Weldon) - This race is slipping fast. Can Sestak make a comeback?
http://www.dailykos.com/...
The final results:
Sestak was elected on November 7, 2006, defeating Weldon by a 12-point margin (56-44),[45] becoming only the second Democrat to represent the Delaware County-based district and its various permutations since the Civil War.
http://en.wikipedia.org/...
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THE SECOND SESTAK COMEBACK
This is recent history, so most people remember what happened during the primary race against Arlen Specter. (Who could forget?)
In May, 2009, Sestak, after Specter's party switch, indicated that he would probably still run in the primary for the Senate seat. His chances were not good at that time.
In a Quinnipiac University Poll conducted May 20–26, in the Democratic primary, Specter led with 50%, with Sestak at 21% and 27% undecided. Despite the gap, it was noted that Sestak did not have much statewide recognition at the time, as he represents only one out of the nineteen Pennsylvania congressional districts.
http://en.wikipedia.org/...
In August, 2009, Sestak officially declared that he'd challenge Specter. The party machine at both the state and national level were against him and in that situation, fund raising would be a real challenge.
The Franklin & Marshall polls showed him trailing by 20 points in March, 2010, and Susquehanna had him down by 14 in the middle of April. About two weeks before the primary in mid-May, the various polls showed a consistent lead for Sestak. Sestak came from behind and won, 53.9% - 46.1%.
Here is the Pollster.com chart for the primary race.
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AND NOW, THE THIRD SESTAK COMEBACK
In August, PPP had Toomey leading Sestak by 9 points, and he has been trailing Toomey in most polls by 5-9 points for most of this race. About ten days ago, we got word that two internal polls showed that Sestak had closed the gap and had a slight lead. And today, after a long stretch with no other polls except one Rasmussen poll, a new PPP poll confirmed that he was coming from behind late in the game again and is 1 point ahead of Toomey.
Here is the Pollster.com chart for this nail biter of a race.
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What You Can Do To Help
Donate to Joe Sestak's campaign.
Here is a different link if you'd rather donate to Sestak via the DailyKos Orange to Blue fundraising campaign.
Join the Sestak Action Network.
Sign up for Sestak's virtual phonebank group.
Write letters to the editor for Sestak.
Send messages on Twitter: ( @Sestak2010, @ToomeyForSenate)
Also, if you would like, please help me send out positive messages on Twitter about the Sestak campaign. Just go to my Twitter page and look for Sestak tweets that you may want to retweet. I send out tweets a couple of times a day, usually. The Toomey folks often outnumber us, so let's change that.
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UPDATE: Another new poll confirms Sestak's lead!
(Many thanks to RandySF in the comments for this news.)
WASHINGTON — Joe Sestak has pulled ahead of Pat Toomey after trailing for months in their closely watched Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race, an independent poll confirms.
Democrat Sestak now leads Republican Toomey 44 percent to 41 percent with 15 percent undecided, a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Tracker poll shows.
The numbers are the first from a nonpartisan source to confirm the race has tightened two weeks before Election Day. Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling on Tuesday put Sestak up by 1 percentage point. And two internal Democratic Party polls last week showed the Pennsylvania contest closing.
http://www.mcall.com/...