(White House photo)
ABT SRBI for TIME. 10/9-10. Likely voters. ±3.1%. (No trendlines.)
Obama: 48
Romney: 44
Obama: 50
Cain: 38
Obama: 51
Perry: 40
Although you might not expect to see an incumbent president leading his rivals when the unemployment rate is at 9.1%, the TIME numbers are nearly identical with those in the new WSJ/NBC poll. Part of the explanation is likely that people trust Democrats over Republicans (this question asked to all adults, not just likely voters):
Regardless of how you usually vote, overall, which party do you trust to do a better job in dealing with the main problems of the nation over the next few years?
Democrats: 42
Republicans: 31
Democrats aren't resoundingly popular, but they clearly have an edge over Republicans. And as you can see with Cain's and Perry's numbers, the further right the Republicans go, the bigger their electoral disadvantage.
Fortunately for President Obama's reelection campaign, Republican voters don't seem to care that Romney starts out in a better position than his nuttier rivals. According to the NBC/WSJ poll, just 20% of Republicans say electability is their top concern. Nearly half want a candidate they agree with and nearly one-third just want a strong leader, whatever that is.
So even though Mitt Romney appears to be the GOP's best candidate, roughly 70% of the GOP electorate has consistently said they'd prefer somebody else. Of course, the thing Mitt Romney has going for him is that Republican voters can't make up their mind who that somebody else should be, and they are running out of time.